Next year?

"Larry Roberts" <roberl7.TakeThisOut@rogers.com> wrote:
>Where do you think Jays will be this time next year? I can't really see them
>doing much better with what they've got.

Good question. The optimist in me hopes they'll be fighting for a
playoff spot.

Lineup for 2005

CA: Quiroz/Cash/Zaun
1B: ? Delgado ?
2B: Hudson
3B: Hinske
SS: Adams
LF: Johnson (R)/Gross (L)
CF: Wells
RF: Rios
DH: Phelps (R)/Catalanotto (L)
UT: Menechino and/or Gomez

Quiroz has been injured this year and only hit 221/319/380 so I
wouldn't be surprized if he starts 2005 in Syracuse then comes up
mid-season.

Delgado might resign cheap as this year has been a disaster. A one
year deal would not shock me, with lots of incentives or just a fixed
$10 million contract.

Hudson, Hinske are both solid middle of the road players who could
break out but will probably continue to be solid.

Adams is coming up in September for a look-see and is hitting
285/354/402 at AAA thus should be decent in the majors, or at least
better than Woodward has been.

Johnson is great vs lefties so I suspect a platoon to break in Gross
(290/377/448) will happen with Gross taking it over at some point but
Johnson still getting lots of playing time around the outfield.

Wells & Rios are as locked into the lineup as it gets.

Phelps hit lefties well, Cat righties, talk about an ideal platoon.
Plus Cat seems to like it in Toronto so he'll probably resign again.

Menechino and Gomez both have done well so one or the other will
probably stay around as a utility guy who gets lots of AB's giving
Hinske/Adams/Hudson breaks.

I can't see how this lineup could do worse than this year and the
offense has been the big weakness this year. Very young, almost all
are likely to improve.

Starters...
Halladay
Batista
Lilly
Bush
Miller

Solid looking rotation to me. Lots of prospects in AAA to step in.
Towers will almost certainly leave as a free agent after being demoted
early in the season (he was very displeased about that).

Bullpen...
Frasor
Chulk
Ligtenberg (signed long term...dang)
?

This could be the biggest problem. Frasor/Chulk have done well but
I'm not sold on them. Guess we'll see who is hot in the spring and
who gets signed in the winter (if any after last winters disaster).

All ranks are for AL only (out of 14)

Right now the Jays are 4th in starting pitching (4.61 ERA) and will be
4th or 5th at years end most likely. The pen is 12th (4.65 ERA) and
probably will stay there. Easy to see where the Jays need help the
most eh?

The hitters are 11th in runs scored and OPS thus they aren't just
unlucky, they are just bad.

Jays hitting ranks (by OPS)...

CA: 9th (722) - Zaun=804 Cash=591
1B: 11th (730) - Delgado=766
2B: 6th (764) - Hudson=734 Menechino=965 (!)
3B: 11th (704) - Hinske=720
SS: 9th (710) - Gomez=692 Woodward=686
LF: 10th (785) - Johnson=715 Cat=786
CF: 8th (800) - Wells=842
RF: 13th (725) - Rios=752
DH: 12th (708) - Phelps=713

Note:
PH: 8th (668)
P: 14th (0 for 20)

Yeash, even the pitchers couldn't hit like the rest of the AL. The
only slot above average was 2B (Hudson/Menechino) with honourable
mention to CA, SS, and CF. RF is pathetic, but has hope now that Rios
is there. SS is sinking fast though.




John Northey.
"Professional baseball is on the wane. Salaries must come down
or the interest of the public must be increased in some way.
If one or the other does not happen, bankruptcy stares every
team in the face."
-- Chicago White Stockings owner Albert Spalding, 1881
 >> Stay informed about: Next year? 

>DH: Phelps (R)/Catalanotto (L)

Obviously this part of the forecast has now changed.

>Delgado might resign cheap as this year has been a disaster. A one
>year deal would not shock me, with lots of incentives or just a fixed
>$10 million contract.

I have not had it adequately explained to me how Delgado can be easily
signed by the Jays. He will not be offered arbitration since the team
rightfully does not want to pay him 80% of $18M. If he is not offered
arbitration, I thought the team could not broach him to be re-signed
until May 1. Or am I mixing up some rules here?

>Johnson is great vs lefties so I suspect a platoon to break in Gross
>(290/377/448) will happen with Gross taking it over at some point but
>Johnson still getting lots of playing time around the outfield.

I believe that Gross has been called up to replace Phelps. Interesting
to see if the platooning in LF commences immediately. No point of
having Gross up if he isn't going to play.

>Menechino and Gomez both have done well so one or the other will
>probably stay around as a utility guy who gets lots of AB's giving
>Hinske/Adams/Hudson breaks.

I can envision them both sticking around.
 >> Stay informed about: Next year? 

Chuck Van Den Corput wrote:

>
>>Delgado might resign cheap as this year has been a disaster. A one
>>year deal would not shock me, with lots of incentives or just a fixed
>>$10 million contract.
>
>
> I have not had it adequately explained to me how Delgado can be easily
> signed by the Jays. He will not be offered arbitration since the team
> rightfully does not want to pay him 80% of $18M. If he is not offered
> arbitration, I thought the team could not broach him to be re-signed
> until May 1. Or am I mixing up some rules here?
>
>
Not that thia is going to happen, but could they not sign him to an
extension before the end of the year to avoid arbitration.

That said there is no chance they will sign him. J.P. has always hated
Delgado, and J.P. is not going to sign Delagdo period. Not even if he
could get him for half of his current salary.
 >> Stay informed about: Next year? 

Chuck Van Den Corput <NOSPAMcvandencorput.TakeThisOut@sympatico.ca> wrote:
>>DH: Phelps (R)/Catalanotto (L)
>
>Obviously this part of the forecast has now changed.

Yup. Things do change quick in baseball at times. I figure the right
side will be someone picked up (AAAA type player) for next to nothing
in the winter or via some player in the system already.

>I have not had it adequately explained to me how Delgado can be easily
>signed by the Jays. He will not be offered arbitration since the team
>rightfully does not want to pay him 80% of $18M. If he is not offered
>arbitration, I thought the team could not broach him to be re-signed
>until May 1. Or am I mixing up some rules here?

The Jays only need to pay 80% of his 2004 salary if he goes to
arbitration with them. The Jays can negotiate a lower pay deal up
until early December, which is when arbitration must be offered or a
deal signed otherwise the Jays lose him until May 1st 2005. I figure
in November Delgado's agent will talk to teams and find few, if any,
takers at more than $10 million due to the poor year he has had. Most
will offer an incentive ladden contract or low dollars. The Jays will
probably offer $8-10 million in a one year deal (doubt JP would offer
a 3 year deal at this stage due to the rapid decline players often
have after age 32) which might be ideal as that would give Delgado a
year to show himself off again and see what is in the market next
year. The fact Delgado refused to be traded this year also speaks
well of how he views Toronto.

>I believe that Gross has been called up to replace Phelps. Interesting
>to see if the platooning in LF commences immediately. No point of
>having Gross up if he isn't going to play.

Agreed. I'd be surprised if Gross doesn't get lots of playing time
with the way Rios has panned out (Tosca moving him to the #3 slot says
a lot for how Tosca feels about Rios). Should be interesting to see
playing time during the next month. We might see Gross everyday in
the lineup, alternating between LF vs right-handers and DH vs lefties
(putting Johnson/Cat in a platoon of sorts).

>>Menechino and Gomez both have done well so one or the other will
>>probably stay around as a utility guy who gets lots of AB's giving
>>Hinske/Adams/Hudson breaks.
>
>I can envision them both sticking around.

It would be nice if the both could. Now that Phelps is gone they
might. New 2005 lineup...

CA: Cash/Q/Zaun
1B: ? Delgado ?
2B: Hudson
3B: Hinske
SS: Adams (September will show us)
LF: Gross
CF: Wells
RF: Rios
DH: Cat/Johnson (Johnson in OF, OF DH's)
UT: Menechino/Gomez

That would be 14 players. Q will start in AAA I suspect, thus letting
the Jays go with 13 players and 12 pitchers to start. Lets hope the
pen is stronger in '05 letting the Jays cut to 6 relievers from 7 thus
letting Q come up without letting Zaun go (doubt Cash will be let go
despite the pathetic bat, but who knows).

Btw, I'm glad the Jays cut bait on Phelps. His numbers vs RH's over
200 plate appearances were absolutely horrid (only 1 player out of
more than 200 ML'ers hit worse over 200+ plate appearances vs RH'ers).
He hit RH'ers worse this year than even good ol' Joe Lawrence did when
he was with the Jays a couple years ago (remember him? Another
ex-catcher who was moved, but to 2B and he flopped horribly before
Hudson finally came up). Now that is bad.


John Northey.
"Professional baseball is on the wane. Salaries must come down
or the interest of the public must be increased in some way.
If one or the other does not happen, bankruptcy stares every
team in the face."
-- Chicago White Stockings owner Albert Spalding, 1881
 >> Stay informed about: Next year? 

On Sat, 07 Aug 2004 08:24:55 -0400, John Northey
<northeyremovespamjohn RemoveThis @hotmail.com> wrote:

>Chuck Van Den Corput <NOSPAMcvandencorput RemoveThis @sympatico.ca> wrote:
>>>DH: Phelps (R)/Catalanotto (L)
>>
>>Obviously this part of the forecast has now changed.
>
>Yup. Things do change quick in baseball at times. I figure the right
>side will be someone picked up (AAAA type player) for next to nothing
>in the winter or via some player in the system already.
>
>>I have not had it adequately explained to me how Delgado can be easily
>>signed by the Jays. He will not be offered arbitration since the team
>>rightfully does not want to pay him 80% of $18M. If he is not offered
>>arbitration, I thought the team could not broach him to be re-signed
>>until May 1. Or am I mixing up some rules here?
>
>The Jays only need to pay 80% of his 2004 salary if he goes to
>arbitration with them. The Jays can negotiate a lower pay deal up
>until early December, which is when arbitration must be offered or a
>deal signed otherwise the Jays lose him until May 1st 2005. I figure
>in November Delgado's agent will talk to teams and find few, if any,
>takers at more than $10 million due to the poor year he has had. Most
>will offer an incentive ladden contract or low dollars. The Jays will
>probably offer $8-10 million in a one year deal (doubt JP would offer
>a 3 year deal at this stage due to the rapid decline players often
>have after age 32) which might be ideal as that would give Delgado a
>year to show himself off again and see what is in the market next
>year. The fact Delgado refused to be traded this year also speaks
>well of how he views Toronto.
>
>>I believe that Gross has been called up to replace Phelps. Interesting
>>to see if the platooning in LF commences immediately. No point of
>>having Gross up if he isn't going to play.
>
>Agreed. I'd be surprised if Gross doesn't get lots of playing time
>with the way Rios has panned out (Tosca moving him to the #3 slot says
>a lot for how Tosca feels about Rios). Should be interesting to see
>playing time during the next month. We might see Gross everyday in
>the lineup, alternating between LF vs right-handers and DH vs lefties
>(putting Johnson/Cat in a platoon of sorts).
>
>>>Menechino and Gomez both have done well so one or the other will
>>>probably stay around as a utility guy who gets lots of AB's giving
>>>Hinske/Adams/Hudson breaks.
>>
>>I can envision them both sticking around.
>
>It would be nice if the both could. Now that Phelps is gone they
>might. New 2005 lineup...
>
>CA: Cash/Q/Zaun
>1B: ? Delgado ?
>2B: Hudson
>3B: Hinske
>SS: Adams (September will show us)
>LF: Gross
>CF: Wells
>RF: Rios
>DH: Cat/Johnson (Johnson in OF, OF DH's)
>UT: Menechino/Gomez
>
>That would be 14 players. Q will start in AAA I suspect, thus letting
>the Jays go with 13 players and 12 pitchers to start. Lets hope the
>pen is stronger in '05 letting the Jays cut to 6 relievers from 7 thus
>letting Q come up without letting Zaun go (doubt Cash will be let go
>despite the pathetic bat, but who knows).
>
>Btw, I'm glad the Jays cut bait on Phelps. His numbers vs RH's over
>200 plate appearances were absolutely horrid (only 1 player out of
>more than 200 ML'ers hit worse over 200+ plate appearances vs RH'ers).
>He hit RH'ers worse this year than even good ol' Joe Lawrence did when
>he was with the Jays a couple years ago (remember him? Another
>ex-catcher who was moved, but to 2B and he flopped horribly before
>Hudson finally came up). Now that is bad.
i do remember good old Joe, where is he know?

>
>
>John Northey.
>"Professional baseball is on the wane. Salaries must come down
>or the interest of the public must be increased in some way.
>If one or the other does not happen, bankruptcy stares every
>team in the face."
>-- Chicago White Stockings owner Albert Spalding, 1881
 >> Stay informed about: Next year? 

>i do remember good old Joe, where is he know?

When Ash went to Milwaukee, Lawrence eventually followed. I don't know
what happened after that.
 >> Stay informed about: Next year?