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I've been thinking

 
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Dell Winkles

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Since: Aug 13, 2004
Posts: 34



(Msg. 1) Posted: Thu Oct 14, 2004 10:34 pm
Post subject: I've been thinking
Archived from groups: alt>sports>baseball>atlanta-braves (more info?)

How would our bullpen look next year with Colon, Meyer, Cruz, Smoltz,
McConnell, Hodges, Drew, and Whiteside? I know they all couldn't be on
the team, but in other words do you think our bullpen would be okay with
talent from our own organization? It would save money and would help
allocate money for the rotation, which is seriously lacking. I don't
think we should re-sign Drew or sign any high price player unless we can
get rid of Andruw and/or Chipper. *cough* Beltran *cough*. If Francoeur
and Marte are as good as advertised, then we just need someone to keep
3B and RF warm for them. I really think we need to get a SP or 2 to go
with Ramirez, Hampton, and Thomson. I know this is gonna be a very
interesting offseason, so just biding my time till it's time to bitch.
Wink

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tom dunne

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Since: Feb 17, 2005
Posts: 118



(Msg. 2) Posted: Fri Oct 15, 2004 3:14 am
Post subject: Re: I've been thinking [Login to view extended thread Info.]
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Dell Winkles wrote:
> How would our bullpen look next year with Colon, Meyer, Cruz, Smoltz,
> McConnell, Hodges, Drew, and Whiteside? I know they all couldn't be on
> the team, but in other words do you think our bullpen would be okay with
> talent from our own organization? It would save money and would help
> allocate money for the rotation, which is seriously lacking. I don't
> think we should re-sign Drew or sign any high price player unless we can
> get rid of Andruw and/or Chipper. *cough* Beltran *cough*. If Francoeur
> and Marte are as good as advertised, then we just need someone to keep
> 3B and RF warm for them. I really think we need to get a SP or 2 to go
> with Ramirez, Hampton, and Thomson. I know this is gonna be a very
> interesting offseason, so just biding my time till it's time to bitch.

Ideally, Capellan is ready for the rotation in 2005, meaning only one
replacement starter is necessary. I plug Capellan in there and try
getting Smoltz to renegotiate his deal to get back in the rotation -
problem solved. Maybe. I make Juan Cruz my closer and find someone
competent to setup. If I can bring back Alfonseca at a similar salary,
that's fine. I try to sign Furcal and Giles to multi-year deals; if
pushed to choose, I sign Giles for the long term and deal with Furcal as
an arb case pursuant to letting him go or moving him elsewhere (Wilson,
if only you would hit!) With the outfield, I make noises about trading
Andruw to see who is interested, but likely accept that he's not going
anywhere. I spend no more than $27/3 years on Drew, preferrably with
some money/years contingent on at-bat qualifiers. If he won't take it,
Boras client that he is, I pluck someone from further down the list and
give him a 1-year deal for the time being - Burnitz, Finley, Nixon, etc.
Well, maybe not Burnitz...

Chipper is untradable. He's 10/5 this year, coming off three
consecutive declining seasons as well as a significant injury, he'll be
33 next April and with buyouts he's owed $42 million for the next two
seasons and $62 million if his options vest. Brave for life, quite
possibly. Not terrible if that happens, IMO - if he can rebound near to
his 1998-2002 form, he might become the fourth Atlanta player from this
era to go into the Hall.

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Jon Richardson

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Since: Oct 03, 2003
Posts: 297



(Msg. 3) Posted: Fri Oct 15, 2004 3:14 am
Post subject: Re: I've been thinking [Login to view extended thread Info.]
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"tom dunne" <askmefor.RemoveThis@myemail.com> wrote in message
news:bgHbd.310126$787.261902@fe2.columbus.rr.com...
> Chipper is untradable. He's 10/5 this year, coming off three
> consecutive declining seasons as well as a significant injury, he'll be
> 33 next April and with buyouts he's owed $42 million for the next two
> seasons and $62 million if his options vest. Brave for life, quite
> possibly. Not terrible if that happens, IMO - if he can rebound near to
> his 1998-2002 form, he might become the fourth Atlanta player from this
> era to go into the Hall.

Maddux, Glavine, and Cox (?) being the other three? Am I missing someone so
obvious here? It's not Smoltz, not TP, not Justice, not Julio, not (likely)
Andruw....who are the other 3 Braves from this era to go to the Hall?

Jon
-Are you counting Sutton here? I'm not trying to be rude, I'm just
wondering how fried my brain actually is by this point...
--
****************************
"I would venture, and I have no idea how to verify this, that more
college-age girls have taken their clothes off to AC/DC's 'Back in Black'
than any other album."
- Lisa Ladouceur
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tom dunne

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Since: Feb 17, 2005
Posts: 118



(Msg. 4) Posted: Fri Oct 15, 2004 4:20 am
Post subject: Re: I've been thinking [Login to view extended thread Info.]
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Jon Richardson wrote:

> "tom dunne" <askmefor.DeleteThis@myemail.com> wrote in message
> news:bgHbd.310126$787.261902@fe2.columbus.rr.com...
>
>>Chipper is untradable. He's 10/5 this year, coming off three
>>consecutive declining seasons as well as a significant injury, he'll be
>>33 next April and with buyouts he's owed $42 million for the next two
>>seasons and $62 million if his options vest. Brave for life, quite
>>possibly. Not terrible if that happens, IMO - if he can rebound near to
>>his 1998-2002 form, he might become the fourth Atlanta player from this
>>era to go into the Hall.
>
>
> Maddux, Glavine, and Cox (?) being the other three? Am I missing someone so
> obvious here? It's not Smoltz, not TP, not Justice, not Julio, not (likely)
> Andruw....who are the other 3 Braves from this era to go to the Hall?

No, I mean Smoltz, but I deliberately prefaced my Chipper comment with a
'might' - could be that Chipper's the third HOFer on the team instead Wink
Smoltz is about 5 good years in the bullpen away from approaching
Dennis Eckersley career numbers, and he'd be the same age Eck was if he
retired at that point. He won't have as many wins or saves, but a
better career ERA, win percentage and almost incomparable postseason
success. Check out Smoltz's HOF Monitor numbers at baseball-reference,
he's probably closer than you'd expect.

I'm not saying Smoltz will get in or that he should get in, only noting
that he might get in.
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Alan Honeycutt

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Since: Jun 07, 2004
Posts: 126



(Msg. 5) Posted: Fri Oct 15, 2004 10:03 am
Post subject: Re: I've been thinking [Login to view extended thread Info.]
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tom dunne wrote:
> No, I mean Smoltz, but I deliberately prefaced my Chipper comment
> with a 'might' - could be that Chipper's the third HOFer on the team
> instead Wink Smoltz is about 5 good years in the bullpen away from
> approaching Dennis Eckersley career numbers, and he'd be the same age
> Eck was if he retired at that point. He won't have as many wins or
> saves, but a better career ERA, win percentage and almost
> incomparable postseason success. Check out Smoltz's HOF Monitor
> numbers at baseball-reference, he's probably closer than you'd expect.
>
> I'm not saying Smoltz will get in or that he should get in, only
> noting that he might get in.

I think he's gonna ride in on the coattails of Maddux and Glavine even if he
retires sooner than that. People are always going to think
Maddux-Glavine-Smoltz when they think of the dominant run of Braves
pitching.
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Jon Richardson

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Since: Oct 03, 2003
Posts: 297



(Msg. 6) Posted: Fri Oct 15, 2004 11:55 am
Post subject: Re: I've been thinking [Login to view extended thread Info.]
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Alan Honeycutt" <Arch.Nemesis.Hostel.1.3.RemoveThis@bellsouth.net> wrote in message
news:2ta3lcF1tg5hlU1@uni-berlin.de...
> tom dunne wrote:
> > No, I mean Smoltz, but I deliberately prefaced my Chipper comment
> > with a 'might' - could be that Chipper's the third HOFer on the team
> > instead Wink Smoltz is about 5 good years in the bullpen away from
> > approaching Dennis Eckersley career numbers, and he'd be the same age
> > Eck was if he retired at that point. He won't have as many wins or
> > saves, but a better career ERA, win percentage and almost
> > incomparable postseason success. Check out Smoltz's HOF Monitor
> > numbers at baseball-reference, he's probably closer than you'd expect.
> >
> > I'm not saying Smoltz will get in or that he should get in, only
> > noting that he might get in.
>
> I think he's gonna ride in on the coattails of Maddux and Glavine even if
he
> retires sooner than that. People are always going to think
> Maddux-Glavine-Smoltz when they think of the dominant run of Braves
> pitching.

It's possible, but I just don't buy it. Smoltz needs at least 5 more good
seasons as a closer to be comparable to Eckersley, and I sure don't think
he's got 5 more seasons in him. I know he's close on the HOF monitor but
there are a lot of guys that are pretty close, many of them with better
numbers than Smoltz who aren't in. A quick check of Smoltz's comparables
show no one likely to get into the HOF (except for Dazzy Vance at #10).

If in the next couple years the HOF suddenly starts putting in Blyleven,
Sutter and Gossage then I'd be much more likely to believe that Smoltz
stands a chance. The major problem is that there's been a few clear
echelons of pitchers over the last 15 years. The first (Maddux, Glavine,
Clemens, RJ, Pedro) are all HOF locks. The next tier (Kevin Brown, Mike
Mussina, Kevin Appier, Chuck Finley, Curt Schilling) all probably deserve
more than token HOF consideration but won't really get it because they've
been overshadowed by the first 5. I think Smoltz is much closer to the
second tier than the first....

Jon
--
****************************
"I would venture, and I have no idea how to verify this, that more
college-age girls have taken their clothes off to AC/DC's 'Back in Black'
than any other album."
- Lisa Ladouceur
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zambi

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Since: Apr 14, 2004
Posts: 23



(Msg. 7) Posted: Sat Oct 16, 2004 12:51 am
Post subject: Re: I've been thinking [Login to view extended thread Info.]
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Colin William

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Since: Oct 03, 2003
Posts: 2061



(Msg. 8) Posted: Sat Oct 16, 2004 9:39 am
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"Jon Richardson" <jonrichardson.TakeThisOut@rogers.com> wrote ...
> It's possible, but I just don't buy it. Smoltz needs at least 5 more good
> seasons as a closer to be comparable to Eckersley, and I sure don't think
> he's got 5 more seasons in him.

I suspect that the BBWAA is not going to elect Smoltz. They seem to be very
selective about their pitchers, and while Smoltz's rep will carry him with
some voters, I think his stats will deter a large number.

I think Smoltz will mainly suffer from havnot having had enough big seasons
as a starter. His 24-8 season was huge, but in terms of a gaudy W/L record
his next best is likely his 17-3 season - in only 26 starts. Outside of
those he has a bunch of 15-12/14-11 type seasons. He has 7 seasons where he
had a winning record, but only by a margin of 1-4 wins over losses. Those
are certainly useful, but they don't hep build the kind of win/loss record
that gets Hall attention.

But what do I know. I thought Eck wasn't really Hall-worthy.

Colin
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