Do we trade Randy Johnson?

"RD (The Sandman)" <rdsandman.RemoveThis@comcast.net> wrote:
> Why do you say that? Shea Hillenbrand filled in quite capably for him
> during his last stint on the DL. Shea is starting to become a pretty
> good substitute first basemen. He seems to be an asset there, not a
> liability and is getting better with each outing.

You're falling victim to Small Sample Size Syndrome (SSSS). Anybody can
"get hot" for a month or two and look like a better player than he really
is. Yes, Shea's done reasonably well at 1B defensively--in fact, better
than expected--but he's still not likely to continue hitting well all
season long. He's shown over and over again that he has no patience at
the plate and no command of the strike zone. On Friday night, he came to
the plate with bases load (the pitcher had walked at least two of the
baserunners, if not all three) and promptly smacked the first pitch to an
infielder, ending the inning. What the hell is wrong with waiting for
*your* pitch? With the game tied and bases loaded, the pressure is on the
pitcher to throw strikes, not the batter to drive in runs.

> That would only happen if we were to trade the Unit to the Vikings. I
> doubt that will happen.

Heh. That said, back when Randy was considered questionable thanks to
recent back surgery and a slow start in Seattle, the Astros gave up a lot
of talent to get him for the stretch run. There aren't a lot of teams who
(A) can afford Randy and (B) have a lot of talent to offer in return, but
the Rangers might be a decent team to talk to. If you could get a pitcher
or two from a pitching-rich team (such as the Astros or A's), you might be
able to swing a three-team trade that would bring lots of talent to the
D-Backs for Randy.

The issue is: Does Randy want to go somewhere else? Apparently,
Colangelo's going to let Randy decide if he should be traded. And right
now, Randy's not showing any signs of wanting out.

Things may change by the All Star break, though. By then, the D-Backs
will know if they've got a shot at making the playoffs this year. If
they're 15 games out of first place by the middle of July, Randy, Gonzo,
Finley and anybody else with value will be traded for prospects and young
players. That's the way it always works.

--Paul
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Paul Wylie wrote:
> "RD (The Sandman)" <rdsandman DeleteThis @comcast.net> wrote:
>
>>Why do you say that? Shea Hillenbrand filled in quite capably for him
>>during his last stint on the DL. Shea is starting to become a pretty
>>good substitute first basemen. He seems to be an asset there, not a
>>liability and is getting better with each outing.
>
>
> You're falling victim to Small Sample Size Syndrome (SSSS). Anybody can
> "get hot" for a month or two and look like a better player than he really
> is. Yes, Shea's done reasonably well at 1B defensively--in fact, better
> than expected--but he's still not likely to continue hitting well all
> season long. He's shown over and over again that he has no patience at
> the plate and no command of the strike zone. On Friday night, he came to
> the plate with bases load (the pitcher had walked at least two of the
> baserunners, if not all three) and promptly smacked the first pitch to an
> infielder, ending the inning. What the hell is wrong with waiting for
> *your* pitch? With the game tied and bases loaded, the pressure is on the
> pitcher to throw strikes, not the batter to drive in runs.

Unfortunately that is a syndrome which appears *too* many of the
D'Backs. I seem to see it more in the "experienced" old hands than I do
in the Baby Backs, but it is there with just about all of them. One
thing that will help Shea is the lack of a high wall in left field.

>>That would only happen if we were to trade the Unit to the Vikings. I
>>doubt that will happen.
>
>
> Heh. That said, back when Randy was considered questionable thanks to
> recent back surgery and a slow start in Seattle, the Astros gave up a lot
> of talent to get him for the stretch run.

He was also 34.

> There aren't a lot of teams who
> (A) can afford Randy and (B) have a lot of talent to offer in return, but
> the Rangers might be a decent team to talk to. If you could get a pitcher
> or two from a pitching-rich team (such as the Astros or A's), you might be
> able to swing a three-team trade that would bring lots of talent to the
> D-Backs for Randy.

Always possible. I just wouldn't be looking for a Herschel Walker type
trade. Only my Vikings were that stupid.

> The issue is: Does Randy want to go somewhere else? Apparently,
> Colangelo's going to let Randy decide if he should be traded. And right
> now, Randy's not showing any signs of wanting out.

Randy would like to stay with the D'Backs *unless* the team gives up and
starts rebuilding. Randy does not want to go through any lean years and
leave the only record he can chase being strikeouts.

> Things may change by the All Star break, though. By then, the D-Backs
> will know if they've got a shot at making the playoffs this year. If
> they're 15 games out of first place by the middle of July, Randy, Gonzo,
> Finley and anybody else with value will be traded for prospects and young
> players. That's the way it always works.

Yep. The problem with Gonzo is his arm and if he will ever fully
recover. Fins is probably in his last four years. Bautista is paid too
much to get much return on the dollar from him as he is currently
performing. He is not overpaid, but he is not a deal either. Sexon
will be a question mark and will probably not be back with the team
until August, if at all this year.

The biggest problem as I see it, is pitching. The pen was supposed to
be a strength this year with the question marks in the starting ranks.
Now Dessens is in the pen, as Daigle soon will be if not back in Tucson.
That leaves Andrew Good to move to the rotation. Brunei is looking
good but he should stay n the pen at least until Mantei is decided one
way or the other and Villareal gets back off the DL. All hindsight is
20/20 but, damn it, we should have kept Batista.

--
Sleep well tonight.........RD (The Sandman)

http://home.comcast.net/~rdsandman

School - Four walls with tomorrow inside.

"The fatal attraction of government is that it allows busybodies to
impose decisions on others without paying any price themselves."

"It is hard to imagine a more stupid or more dangerous way of making
decisions than by putting those decisions in the hands of people who
pay no price for being wrong" Author Thomas Sowell
 >> Stay informed about: Do we trade Randy Johnson? 

"Paul Wylie" <paul.RemoveThis@teamwylie.removemunged.org> wrote in message
news:c8tq79$6of$2@reader2.panix.com...
> "RD (The Sandman)" <rdsandman.RemoveThis@comcast.net> wrote:
>
> Heh. That said, back when Randy was considered questionable thanks to
> recent back surgery and a slow start in Seattle, the Astros gave up a lot
> of talent to get him for the stretch run. There aren't a lot of teams who
> (A) can afford Randy and (B) have a lot of talent to offer in return, but
> the Rangers might be a decent team to talk to.

I would think A.L. teams would show a bit more interest, as they know that
many A.L. hitters haven't seen Johnson.

The Red Sox come to mind, as might the Yankees. White Sox and Anaheim are
also possibilities.

The Rangers would trade Chan Ho Park and his fat contract along with 1-2
prospects for Randy Johnson. Adding Johnson to the Rangers' rotation--and
moving all of their starters back a spot would really improve their chances.
But they would likely either want a few million in cash to offset the
contract or to unload Chan Ho Park.

> If you could get a pitcher
> or two from a pitching-rich team (such as the Astros or A's), you might be
> able to swing a three-team trade that would bring lots of talent to the
> D-Backs for Randy.

No way the Astros would upset their starting rotation...but they might send
1-2 AAA prospects.

> The issue is: Does Randy want to go somewhere else? Apparently,
> Colangelo's going to let Randy decide if he should be traded. And right
> now, Randy's not showing any signs of wanting out.

Kind of surprising...he has a chance to be in a pennant race. Still, he
likes Arizona and he is the team leader now (I would think).

> Things may change by the All Star break, though. By then, the D-Backs
> will know if they've got a shot at making the playoffs this year. If
> they're 15 games out of first place by the middle of July, Randy, Gonzo,
> Finley and anybody else with value will be traded for prospects and young
> players. That's the way it always works.
>
> --Paul

I doubt they'd give up on Gonzo and Finley, unless they are in the final
year of a contract and know that they won't be able to re-sign them.

D
 >> Stay informed about: Do we trade Randy Johnson? 

Dave Hannes <d.hannes.DeleteThis@worldnet.att.net> wrote:
[...]
> The Red Sox come to mind, as might the Yankees. White Sox and Anaheim are
> also possibilities.

The Red Sox are probably tapped out, financially. The Yankees don't have
much to trade. I don't know about the other two teams, though.

> The Rangers would trade Chan Ho Park and his fat contract along with 1-2
> prospects for Randy Johnson. Adding Johnson to the Rangers' rotation--and
> moving all of their starters back a spot would really improve their chances.
> But they would likely either want a few million in cash to offset the
> contract or to unload Chan Ho Park.

I'm sure they'd love to unload Park, but the D-Backs won't take him unless
the Rangers eat a big chunk of his contract. Hicks has apparently
indicated that if the Rangers are close and need a player down the
stretch, he'll free up some money to make it possible. The Rangers are a
team I saw named on a website somewhere (I think it was ESPN) as a
specific possibility for Randy because of Hicks's decision.

> No way the Astros would upset their starting rotation...but they might
> send 1-2 AAA prospects.

Agreed, and at this point, if you're looking to trade Randy and start
over, you're looking for cheap players (i.e., prospects).

[...]
> I doubt they'd give up on Gonzo and Finley, unless they are in the
> final year of a contract and know that they won't be able to re-sign
> them.

Finley *is* in the final year of his contract and will be 40 next year.
He's recently said he believes he can play another two years. And the way
he's played this season, who's to doubt him?

Gonzo, on the other hand, will be tough to trade. He's still hitting HRs,
but his average is down, and he's no spring chicken, either. On top of
that, he's already said that Tony Womack's amazing recovery from offseason
elbow surgery has convinced him to have the surgery after this season.

That said, Gonzo's under contract for a couple more years beyond this one,
and even an aging slugger with a bad wing could help somebody down the
stretch. If he went to an AL team, he could DH the rest of this year and
return to the outfield next year.

The D-Backs would only keep Gonzo, Finley, et. al. if they believed that
doing so sold enough extra tickets to pay for the investment, or gave them
a credible chance to win right now. If the team's 15 games out of first
by July, the floodgates will likely open. At that point, the team's goal
will have to be to obtain inexpensive talent that can gel into a
contender.

Sure, you want a few veteran leaders around the clubhouse to help whip the
young'uns into shape, but guys like Carlos Baerga are cheaper to have on
your team than guys like Gonzo.

--Paul
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