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Since: Apr 01, 2008 Posts: 50
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(Msg. 16) Posted: Thu May 22, 2008 10:08 am
Post subject: Re: small ball [Login to view extended thread Info.] Archived from groups: alt>sports>baseball>cinci-reds (more info?)
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On May 21, 2:20 pm, John Kasupski <kc2....TakeThisOut@verizon.net> wrote:
> On Wed, 21 May 2008 14:53:18 -0400, Kevin McClave
>
>
> One is his contention that the reason the 1976 Reds scored the
> second-most runs in franchise history despite setting the major league
> record for the most runners LOB in a season is because they also had a
> franchise-record OBP. The OBP is why they had so many runners on base
> in the first place - regardless of whether they scored or were LOB.
>
> The reason so many of those runners scored isn't only that they had a
> high OBP (although obviously that's part of it), it's also related to
> the fact that that they had guys like Perez, Griffey Sr., Foster,
> Bench, and Morgan in the lineup who put balls in play and did other
> things to help bring those runners in. There were two guys in that
> lineup (Morgan and Foster) who drove in more than 100 runs. Neither of
> them hit 40 homers like Adam Dunn- nobody on the entire team hit 40
> bombs. But neither of them struck out 100 times either - nobody on the
> entire team struck out 100 times (let alone came close to 200). They
> put balls in play, they hit behind the runner, they did things to
> enhance their chances to score, rather than standing around waiting
> for somebody to hit a jack, or striking out while trying to do so.
huh?
Perez retired 3rd in career strikeouts.
Bench had probably struck out more times than any catcher in history
when he retired.
bench, foster and perez all had thier career best rbi years in the
same year they hit thier most homeruns.
no sorry. the BRM could beat you in many ways, but the brunt of that
offense was OBP guys batting in front of the ehavy hitters. Put Rose/
Griffey/Morgan in front of Dunn and he will drive in 120 runs too.
>
> Then there's Erardi's contention about Dunn belonging in the 2-hole
> because of his high OBP (due to walks) and the fact that he hits 40
> dingers a year. Well, yes, batting him second might get him 50 more
> plate appearances, but he's not going to hit homers in anything even
> close to a majority of those 50 extra plate appearances, and he's
> going to strike out in a good many of them, thereby accomplishing
> absolutely nothing advantageous to the team.
wow. completely over your head.
>
> Erardi also says Dunn's right around league average in terms of
> advancing runners from first base, but there's a reason why in the #2
> slot you want somebody who is ABOVE league average in this department.
what would that be?
>
> Erardi himself states, "Runs come from hitters getting on base and the
> hitters behind them getting them home." I'd much rather have Keppinger
> in the #2 slot than Dunn because while Keppinger has nearly the same
> OBP (.373) as Dunn (.376), he also has only 8 Ks as compared to to 38
> for Dunn (one reason why he's only 8 RBI behind Dunn) and in fact has
> a higher slugging percentage and a 90-point advantage in BA
>
> Unfortunately, Keppinger is now on the DL and will be for some time to
> come. Based on performances so far this season, I'd have Hairston
> batting second right now. Or Janish, which is exactly who Dusty had
> there last night.
interestingly, the Reds got on a roll at just about the time Kep went
down. no correlation.
It still comes down to pitching which still isnt that good (only 2
good starters) and rarely gets picked apart on these threads. They
should think about sending Cueto down, let him get a few dominating
starts under his belt, figure some stuff out.
>
> JK
I <3 John >> Stay informed about: small ball |
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Since: May 09, 2007 Posts: 286
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(Msg. 17) Posted: Thu May 22, 2008 11:36 am
Post subject: Re: small ball [Login to view extended thread Info.] Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)
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On May 21, 5:20 pm, John Kasupski <kc2....RemoveThis@verizon.net> wrote:
> They put balls in play, they hit behind the runner, they did things to
> enhance their chances to score, rather than standing around waiting
> for somebody to hit a jack, or striking out while trying to do so.
The 1976 Cincinnati Reds led the league in runs scored.
And in homers.
And in strikeouts.
Thanks for visiting, John. >> Stay informed about: small ball |
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Since: May 03, 2007 Posts: 373
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(Msg. 18) Posted: Thu May 22, 2008 11:42 am
Post subject: Re: small ball [Login to view extended thread Info.] Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)
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On May 22, 12:48 pm, t... DeleteThis @nomail.please (JustTom) wrote:
> On Thu, 22 May 2008 09:51:17 -0400, Kevin McClave
>
>
>
> <kmccl... DeleteThis @SPAM666twcny.rr.com> wrote:
> >On Thu, 22 May 2008 11:54:17 GMT, t... DeleteThis @nomail.please (JustTom) wrote:
>
> >>On Wed, 21 May 2008 21:20:42 GMT, John Kasupski <kc2... DeleteThis @verizon.net>
> >>wrote:
>
> >>>Unfortunately, Keppinger is now on the DL and will be for some time to
> >>>come. Based on performances so far this season, I'd have Hairston
> >>>batting second right now. Or Janish, which is exactly who Dusty had
> >>>there last night.
>
> >>If it's based on performance, why would you put a rookie there who's
> >>main question has been whether he can handle the bat well enough to be
> >>MLer?
>
> >>He's only had 3 starts and 12 at bats.
>
> >Because it "feels" right.
>
> >Forget that it isn't right.
>
> With Patterson, Janish, and this version of Griffey, I'd guess we
> have the worst top 3 in the league, maybe of historic proportions.
I'm old enough to remember the 1973 Rangers. (Who would have
been my first guess for historically bad 1-3)
While I know you can find worse at any one of the three spots
they're pretty impressive for the combined totals.
Roughly .246/.305/.333 (with the #3 slot being the worst
of the group. The 1972 Rangers are amazing in that they're
so consistent.
Batting
1 .241/.331/.300
2 .207/.285/.256
3 .236/.325/.357
4 .258/.320/.349
5 .204/.281/.315
6 .237/.308/.325
7 .227/.293/.283
8 .194/.260/.235
9 .135/.187/.174
(They're doubly amazing in that they weren't last in the league in
runs scored per game)
Not a team that get brought up much when talking about Ted Williams
as a hitting instructor.
>
> I've seen claims/discussions saying lineup doesn't effect runs enough
> to worry about, but I've got believe that with the extremes that we
> have, that it damn sure does for us and Dusty was absolutely the worst
> choice for this team because he can't understand it. >> Stay informed about: small ball |
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Since: May 03, 2007 Posts: 373
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(Msg. 19) Posted: Thu May 22, 2008 11:49 am
Post subject: Re: small ball [Login to view extended thread Info.] Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)
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On May 22, 11:30 am, David Short
<David.no.Sh....DeleteThis@Spam.Wright.Please.edu> wrote:
>
> I know John's hates to hear the name, but one of the things James used
> to harp on regularly is the notion that baseball folks do things not
> because it makes sense, but because they percieve that's the way it
> should be done.
>
The specific example he cited was Mark Grace and Ryne Sandberg.
Grace's skills were obviously better suited for the 2nd slot
than Sandberg's. But second-basemen bat second, so ...
He wrote a moderately funny little bit on the decision to bat
Spike Owen (.196/.257/.271) leadoff for most of the 1983 season. >> Stay informed about: small ball |
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Since: Dec 16, 2005 Posts: 448
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(Msg. 20) Posted: Thu May 22, 2008 11:54 am
Post subject: Re: small ball [Login to view extended thread Info.] Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)
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On Wed, 21 May 2008 21:20:42 GMT, John Kasupski <kc2hmz.DeleteThis@verizon.net>
wrote:
>
>Unfortunately, Keppinger is now on the DL and will be for some time to
>come. Based on performances so far this season, I'd have Hairston
>batting second right now. Or Janish, which is exactly who Dusty had
>there last night.
>
If it's based on performance, why would you put a rookie there who's
main question has been whether he can handle the bat well enough to be
MLer?
He's only had 3 starts and 12 at bats. >> Stay informed about: small ball |
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Since: Dec 07, 2006 Posts: 399
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(Msg. 21) Posted: Thu May 22, 2008 11:54 am
Post subject: Re: small ball [Login to view extended thread Info.] Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)
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On Thu, 22 May 2008 11:54:17 GMT, tom DeleteThis @nomail.please (JustTom) wrote:
>On Wed, 21 May 2008 21:20:42 GMT, John Kasupski <kc2hmz DeleteThis @verizon.net>
>wrote:
>
>>
>>Unfortunately, Keppinger is now on the DL and will be for some time to
>>come. Based on performances so far this season, I'd have Hairston
>>batting second right now. Or Janish, which is exactly who Dusty had
>>there last night.
>
>If it's based on performance, why would you put a rookie there who's
>main question has been whether he can handle the bat well enough to be
>MLer?
>
>He's only had 3 starts and 12 at bats.
Because it "feels" right.
Forget that it isn't right.
******************************************************************
Kevin McClave
"To justify himself, each relies on
the other's crime." ~Albert Camus
****************************************************************** >> Stay informed about: small ball |
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Since: May 21, 2007 Posts: 281
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(Msg. 22) Posted: Thu May 22, 2008 11:54 am
Post subject: Re: small ball [Login to view extended thread Info.] Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)
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Kevin McClave wrote:
> On Thu, 22 May 2008 11:54:17 GMT, tom.TakeThisOut@nomail.please (JustTom) wrote:
>
>> On Wed, 21 May 2008 21:20:42 GMT, John Kasupski <kc2hmz.TakeThisOut@verizon.net>
>> wrote:
>>
>>> Unfortunately, Keppinger is now on the DL and will be for some time to
>>> come. Based on performances so far this season, I'd have Hairston
>>> batting second right now. Or Janish, which is exactly who Dusty had
>>> there last night.
>> If it's based on performance, why would you put a rookie there who's
>> main question has been whether he can handle the bat well enough to be
>> MLer?
>>
>> He's only had 3 starts and 12 at bats.
>
> Because it "feels" right.
>
> Forget that it isn't right.
I know John's hates to hear the name, but one of the things James used
to harp on regularly is the notion that baseball folks do things not
because it makes sense, but because they percieve that's the way it
should be done.
Speedy centerfielder? That's your leadoff guy. Who cares if he actually
gets on base or not. Reds fans can moan about Dusty Baker and Cory
Patterson all we want, but that's exactly what they used to do with
Deion Sanders and Roberto Kelley.
In the second slot? you want a crafty middle infielder. Who cares if
you've got a rookie who doesn't have the stick to play in the big
leagues, by golly you bat Paul Janish here because that's where you bat
your pesky middle infield types. Who hit second the most last year?
Brandon Phillips. Why? Because of his tremendous bat control and ability
to advance the runners...No silly, if that was the case Scott Hatteberg
would bat there, but you see Scott Hatteberg is a firstbaseman and they
don't bat second.
In the third slot is "your best all around hitter." And frankly here is
another slot where memory is what seems to matter. Dusty Baker has so
much respect for what Ken Griffey Junior used to be, that he seems blind
to what Ken Griffey Junior actually is.
You can go up and down the list. Lineup orders don't matter anywhere
near as much as we may think, but they do matter. Why not take the
advantages that you can?
dfs >> Stay informed about: small ball |
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Since: May 03, 2007 Posts: 373
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(Msg. 23) Posted: Thu May 22, 2008 12:10 pm
Post subject: Re: small ball [Login to view extended thread Info.] Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)
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On May 22, 2:36 pm, tom dunne <dunn... DeleteThis @gmail.com> wrote:
> On May 21, 5:20 pm, John Kasupski <kc2... DeleteThis @verizon.net> wrote:
>
> > They put balls in play, they hit behind the runner, they did things to
> > enhance their chances to score, rather than standing around waiting
> > for somebody to hit a jack, or striking out while trying to do so.
>
> The 1976 Cincinnati Reds led the league in runs scored.
> And in homers.
> And in strikeouts.
Well they also led in hits, doubles, triples, walks, stolen bases
and stolen base percentage.
For some reason they didn't bunt much though. They did however
carry a pinch bunter. Ed Armbrister (who led all position players
with 5 sacs.) Only Concepcion (4) and Geronimo (2) had a sac
among the regular starters. That's bunting less than Earl Weaver
or Tom Kelly. >> Stay informed about: small ball |
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Since: May 03, 2007 Posts: 373
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(Msg. 24) Posted: Thu May 22, 2008 12:14 pm
Post subject: Re: small ball [Login to view extended thread Info.] Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)
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On May 22, 2:36 pm, t... RemoveThis @nomail.please (JustTom) wrote:
> On Thu, 22 May 2008 11:49:42 -0700 (PDT), Ron Johnson
>
> <john... RemoveThis @ccrs.nrcan.gc.ca> wrote:
> >On May 22, 11:30 am, David Short
> ><David.no.Sh... RemoveThis @Spam.Wright.Please.edu> wrote:
>
> >> I know John's hates to hear the name, but one of the things James used
> >> to harp on regularly is the notion that baseball folks do things not
> >> because it makes sense, but because they percieve that's the way it
> >> should be done.
>
> >The specific example he cited was Mark Grace and Ryne Sandberg.
>
> >Grace's skills were obviously better suited for the 2nd slot
> >than Sandberg's. But second-basemen bat second, so ...
>
> I thought SS batted second.
Nope. It's far more common to find second-basemen batting second.
And bat control guys are far more common at second than any other
position.
>
> I guess "middle infielder" counts, so we could at least justify
> keeping Morgan in the 2 hole,
Well it's not like a lot of runs are at stake when you're talking
Rose/Morgan rather than Morgan/Rose.
> but do you realize if Dusty were there
> instead of Sparky we may have seen Geronimo followed by Concepcion. >> Stay informed about: small ball |
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Since: May 03, 2007 Posts: 373
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(Msg. 25) Posted: Thu May 22, 2008 12:33 pm
Post subject: Re: small ball - Ron or Dan [Login to view extended thread Info.] Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)
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On May 22, 3:06 pm, David Short
<David.no.Sh... DeleteThis @Spam.Wright.Please.edu> wrote:
> Bob Braun wrote:
> > Ron or Dan
>
> > I can't find this stat.
>
> > K/plate appearance ratio by team.
>
> > Yes, the 1976 Reds may have had a lot of K's, but they batted a helluva lot.
>
> > It would be interesting to compare the K/PA rate of the '76 Reds vs. say the
> > 2006 Reds.
>
> > Or tell me where to look, and I'll find it.
>
> Looks like team plate appearances is the tough one.
>
> Under the league sections at baseball reference you can get a teams
> season K's, AB and BB. Something like K/(AB+BB) would give you a decent
> approximation.
>
> It will certainly show the modern reds are striking out far more than
> the 76 team, but that's a league wide thing that's been going on since
> at least 1993. K's have been steadily rising in that time.
Right. The 2007 Reds struck out 28% more per PA than the 1976
team, but Ks are up more than 33% across the league. (It's more
than that once you factor in those few games with DH. No
biggie though, and we're not exactly aiming for second
digit precision)
All in all, the 1976 Reds struck out 6% more frequently than
league average (per PA) while the 2007 team was 2% above
average. >> Stay informed about: small ball |
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Since: May 03, 2007 Posts: 373
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(Msg. 26) Posted: Thu May 22, 2008 12:58 pm
Post subject: Re: small ball [Login to view extended thread Info.] Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)
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On May 22, 3:13 pm, t... RemoveThis @nomail.please (JustTom) wrote:
> On Thu, 22 May 2008 11:42:23 -0700 (PDT), Ron Johnson
> The 1972 Rangers are amazing in that they're
> >so consistent.
>
> >Batting
> >1 .241/.331/.300 SS Toby Harrah
> >2 .207/.285/.256 2B Len Randle
> >3 .236/.325/.357 RF Ted Ford
> >4 .258/.320/.349 1B Frank Howard
> >5 .204/.281/.315 LF Tom Grieve
> >6 .237/.308/.325 C Dick Billings
> >7 .227/.293/.283 3B Dave Nelson
> >8 .194/.260/.235 CF Joe Lovitto
> >9 .135/.187/.174 last hurrah of the al pitcher (maybe what they used to get the DH)
>
> Just for fun just because it's a slow afternoon before a holiday for
> me tomorrow, thought I'd try to match up the lineup they used the
> majority of the time based on player stats.
>
> Am I close?
Not guessable. Williams used a ton of different combinations
and the most frequent one was used all of 5 times.
What's more Dave Nelson was his most frequent leadoff hitter (85
games) *and* his most frequent #2 hitter (44 games)
Only one guy had 100+ starts in any given slot. Billings 105
games at cleanup.
Here's the lineup they used 5 times:
1 Maddox
2 Mason
3 Biittner
4 Billings
5 Howard
6 Jones
7 Fahey
8 Harris
Pitcher
And they used this one 4 times:
1 Randle
2 Nelson
3 Mincher
4 King
5 Howard
6 Biittner
7 Lovitto
8 Harrah
9 Pitcher
And the same one another 4 times with Maddox instead of Lovitto
hitting 7th.
One of the few teams I'm aware of to be actively trying to
get their manager fired. Harrah and a few others started the
Uderminers Club.
They thought Williams was a grouch. WIthin a year Billy Martin
was their manager. >> Stay informed about: small ball |
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Since: Aug 11, 2007 Posts: 240
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(Msg. 27) Posted: Thu May 22, 2008 3:03 pm
Post subject: Re: small ball - Ron or Dan [Login to view extended thread Info.] Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)
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Ron or Dan
I can't find this stat.
K/plate appearance ratio by team.
Yes, the 1976 Reds may have had a lot of K's, but they batted a helluva lot.
It would be interesting to compare the K/PA rate of the '76 Reds vs. say the
2006 Reds.
Or tell me where to look, and I'll find it. >> Stay informed about: small ball |
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Since: May 21, 2007 Posts: 281
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(Msg. 28) Posted: Thu May 22, 2008 3:06 pm
Post subject: Re: small ball - Ron or Dan [Login to view extended thread Info.] Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)
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Bob Braun wrote:
> Ron or Dan
>
> I can't find this stat.
>
> K/plate appearance ratio by team.
>
> Yes, the 1976 Reds may have had a lot of K's, but they batted a helluva lot.
>
> It would be interesting to compare the K/PA rate of the '76 Reds vs. say the
> 2006 Reds.
>
> Or tell me where to look, and I'll find it.
Looks like team plate appearances is the tough one.
Under the league sections at baseball reference you can get a teams
season K's, AB and BB. Something like K/(AB+BB) would give you a decent
approximation.
It will certainly show the modern reds are striking out far more than
the 76 team, but that's a league wide thing that's been going on since
at least 1993. K's have been steadily rising in that time.
dfs >> Stay informed about: small ball |
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Since: Aug 11, 2007 Posts: 240
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(Msg. 29) Posted: Thu May 22, 2008 3:21 pm
Post subject: Re: small ball - Ron or Dan [Login to view extended thread Info.] Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)
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--
"David Short" <David.no.Short RemoveThis @Spam.Wright.Please.edu> wrote in message
news:g14gch$1ko$2@posting.glorb.com...
> Bob Braun wrote:
>> Ron or Dan
>>
>> I can't find this stat.
>>
>> K/plate appearance ratio by team.
>>
>> Yes, the 1976 Reds may have had a lot of K's, but they batted a helluva
>> lot.
>>
>> It would be interesting to compare the K/PA rate of the '76 Reds vs. say
>> the 2006 Reds.
>>
>> Or tell me where to look, and I'll find it.
>
> Looks like team plate appearances is the tough one.
>
> Under the league sections at baseball reference you can get a teams season
> K's, AB and BB. Something like K/(AB+BB) would give you a decent
> approximation.
>
> It will certainly show the modern reds are striking out far more than the
> 76 team, but that's a league wide thing that's been going on since at
> least 1993. K's have been steadily rising in that time.
>
Well, I've voiced my theory on that. That's today's money-driven, selfish
athlete. You don't see guys in a two-strike hole, turn slightly toward the
pitcher and shorten their swing a bit. I was taught that striking out was
bad, and taking a called strike three, a sin. >> Stay informed about: small ball |
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Since: Dec 07, 2006 Posts: 399
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(Msg. 30) Posted: Thu May 22, 2008 3:39 pm
Post subject: Re: small ball [Login to view extended thread Info.] Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)
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On Thu, 22 May 2008 12:10:52 -0700 (PDT), Ron Johnson
<johnson.DeleteThis@ccrs.nrcan.gc.ca> wrote:
>On May 22, 2:36 pm, tom dunne <dunn....DeleteThis@gmail.com> wrote:
>> On May 21, 5:20 pm, John Kasupski <kc2....DeleteThis@verizon.net> wrote:
>>
>> > They put balls in play, they hit behind the runner, they did things to
>> > enhance their chances to score, rather than standing around waiting
>> > for somebody to hit a jack, or striking out while trying to do so.
>>
>> The 1976 Cincinnati Reds led the league in runs scored.
>> And in homers.
>> And in strikeouts.
>
>Well they also led in hits, doubles, triples, walks, stolen bases
>and stolen base percentage.
>
>For some reason they didn't bunt much though. They did however
>carry a pinch bunter. Ed Armbrister (who led all position players
>with 5 sacs.) Only Concepcion (4) and Geronimo (2) had a sac
>among the regular starters. That's bunting less than Earl Weaver
>or Tom Kelly.
Now I understand why it is I became a Reds fan!
******************************************************************
Kevin McClave
"To justify himself, each relies on
the other's crime." ~Albert Camus
****************************************************************** >> Stay informed about: small ball |
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