"Paul Wylie" <paul.TakeThisOut@teamwylie.removemunged.org> wrote in message
news:d77fc2$ael$1@reader1.panix.com...
> YKW 05 <aint.that.TakeThisOut@kick.in.the.head> wrote:
> [...]
>> But does Tim have a similar history? For that matter, is there =any=
>> historic tendency for members of a baseball family to have similar
>> durability records?
>
> It's hard to tell with pitchers. Injuries are much more common for
> pitchers than for position players. It's difficult to know whether
> the reason his paltry career high for appearances in one season (11) is
> due to ineffectiveness or injury. He did go on the DL last year in August
> when he was with Atlanta, and he's seen no action this year with his new
> organization (Colorado).
He's been healthy and pitching in AAA ball for them (3-3, 7.49, 9GS), but
no, not in the majors. (He's kinda caught in a bad place there: too old to
be considered an up-and-comer on a rebuilding club, not experienced enough
in the bigs to be considered a veteran influence. Plus, he's giving up mad
hits with the Sky Sox.)
> If Tim had a stellar history of health as a pitcher, it might mean
> something (simply because durable pitchers are so rare), but if you're
> going to look to comparables, JD's history as a position player is
> probably more instructive.
We'll have to disagree, then. There have just been so many sibling sets with
completely different injury tracks (the Ripkens, the Boones, the Bretts, et
al), it seems as if reliance on family injury histories in evaluating a
player is little more than a convenient excuse to look elsewhere than it is
a truly predictive tool. (Unless you're talking about hereditary disease or
congenital defects or the like, but those are the sorts of things that would
pop up in the standard player med evals, regardless.)
>> As to Webb, remember that I was the guy touting him as staff ace going
>> into the season, with the improved infield behind him making him more
>> willing to throw in the strike zone. Did I expect him to remain
>> undefeated heading into June? No. Did I expect a WHIP under 1.3 and an
>> ERA in the low threes?
>
> The scary thing about Webb last year wasn't just his wildness, it was his
> sudden drop in K rate. His K/9 was down significantly early in the
> season. I see that towards the end of the season, he righted the ship
> somewhat and got his K/9 back to about 7, which is still quite good.
> Earlier in the year, he was flirting with dropping below 6. So far this
> year, his K/9 is about 7 again, so it appears your prediction about his
> return to throwing strikes thanks to improved infield defense was bang-on.
The strikeout drop went right along with the walk increase. Hitters realized
he wasn't going to throw in the zone as often, so they had the confidence
not to lunge after the sinker that starts at the belt and ends up on home
plate. And if hitters aren't making themselves look silly on Webb's drop,
they aren't striking out, they're getting in more favorable counts, they're
drawing more walks and hitting the occasional strikes much harder.
That said, he really needs to work in his breaking ball a little more and
become more change-conscious. Too often, he works himself into a
fastball-sinker, fastball-sinker routine, going to the yakker or the slow
stuff on "waste" counts.
Word gets around fast these days, and hitters can pick up on any patterns
you rely upon too heavily from start to start. If they know you're only
showcasing your other pitches, then they know they don't have to bother
looking for them and can guess fastball-sinker.
If they guess wrong, sweet. If they guess =right=.....
> [...]
>> I'm somewhat concerned with the number of pitches he throws (106+ in
>> six of his last seven outings, and 99 in the other; 106+ average for the
>> year), but he appears physically suited to handle the extra workload.
>> (As much as anyone, that is...)
>
> ESPN shows he's averaging 107 per start. He's still young, and I'd like
> to see Melvin show more care with him, but given the atrocious state of
> the bullpen lately, it's tough to fault Melvin for being reluctant to go
> to them any earlier than he absolutely has to. Web threw 115 pitches last
> night in only 6 2/3.
Yeah, his per-start total ticked upward after last night's start. He wasn't
getting the calls on pitches darting down and he had to elevate. That leads
to extra pitches, more walks, harder contact, yadda yadda yadda.
I don't necessarily "fault" Melvin for hanging with Webb, especially given
the overall excellence Webb's shown in 2005. I =do= fault him for not having
a plan for his bullpen and sticking with it. Cormier's your middle guy?
Webb's count is getting up toward triple digits? He damned well ought to
know that these are =his= innings and he's gonna get the call -- and he
shouldn't have to panic over being yanked if he puts a guy on. Ditto
Valverde in the eighth (if indeed that's where he's going to pitch for now)
and Bruney in the ninth. Start fudging around with roles in the middle of a
ballgame and you find yourself with one muddle of a 'pen.
--
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