jay bruce

In article <482ccbf9$0$30217$4c368faf@roadrunner.com>,
rja.DeleteThis@nospam.cinci.rr.com says...
> "Dan Szymborski" <dan.DeleteThis@baseballprimer.com> wrote in message
> news:MPG.22954f7c19191e9c98971c@news-server.woh.rr.com...
> > In article <482a534a$0$12906$4c368faf@roadrunner.com>,
> > rja.DeleteThis@nospam.cinci.rr.com says...
> >> <spr272000.DeleteThis@netzero.net> wrote in message
> >> news:040fb7be-cb30-4eb0-9678-278ccf96ca62@i36g2000prf.googlegroups.com...
> >> > while the reds continue to play patterson and his below .200 average,
> >> > jay bruce is batting in the .340's at AAA.. can anyone give me an
> >> > explanation for such ignorance ? I thought the reason that hamilton
> >> > was traded is because bruce was ready to play with the big club. you
> >> > would think that the new GM would have made the move right away. the
> >> > whole organisation can't be stupid, there has to be some explanation
> >> > for this. did bruce have problems with defense in spring training ? I
> >> > know that baker likes patterson, but that can't be all there is to it.
> >> > if I were the owner of the reds I would tell baker that patterson goes
> >> > or you do.
> >>
> >> Is it Ron or Dan who usually gives us the predicted stats for a guy
> >> coming
> >> out of the minors into the show? What would that be for Bruce, and what
> >> was
> >> it for Votto's rookie year? How about last year's rookie of the year
> >> Ryan
> >> Braun?
> >
> > That would be me.
> >
> > Votto's definitely hitting for more power than ZiPS expected, I had him
> > projected at 281/357/466. I released a tool for in-season projections a
> > while back and now have Votto at 283/361/476 for the rest of the year.
> >
> > Braun was a miss. Easy to see why. He hit 289/357/514 splitting the
> > year between High-A and AA so my 262/321/440 projection for 2007 wasn't
> > really all that mean. Of course, he absolutely exploded, hitting
> > 342/418/701 for Nashville and we all know what he did in the majors.
> > Even surprised the Brewers who really liked him already - they were
> > actually scrambling when it became clear that Corey Koskie wasn't going
> > to be OK and trying to use Tony Graffanino as a fill-in. Turns out the
> > Graffanino/Counsell mess didn't last too long.
> >
> > I had Bruce projected at 266/317/476. He translates as 282/317/496 at
> > the moment, so if he's promoted, I hope people aren't disappointed he's
> > just a really, really good centerfielder at this moment and not Mays.
>
> Hmmm........I don't know. That seems awfully conservative for a guy hitting
> .366 in triple A. Of course, we all remember Brandon Larson.

He was only hitting .315 and slugging like .530 when I did the
translation. After this comment, I checked and it appears Sean's not
having minor league numbers update with the same frequency of the major
league ones. I'm going to go annoy him when I finish this post.

At 366/398/662 (wow, he's been hot lately), I have the translation at
297/350/510. It's a significantly more severe batting average
translation than typical mainly because he's got a .436 BABIP, which
can't help but go down a minimum of 75 points in the majors.

--
Dan Szymborski
dan.DeleteThis@baseballprimer.REMOVE.com

"A critic who refuses to attack what is bad is
not a whole-hearted supporter of what is good."
- Robert Schumann
 >> Stay informed about: jay bruce 

"Dan Szymborski" <dan RemoveThis @baseballprimer.com> wrote in message
news:MPG.22969b21c43472f0989720@news-server.woh.rr.com...
> In article <482ccbf9$0$30217$4c368faf@roadrunner.com>,
> rja RemoveThis @nospam.cinci.rr.com says...
>> "Dan Szymborski" <dan RemoveThis @baseballprimer.com> wrote in message
>> news:MPG.22954f7c19191e9c98971c@news-server.woh.rr.com...
>> > In article <482a534a$0$12906$4c368faf@roadrunner.com>,
>> > rja RemoveThis @nospam.cinci.rr.com says...
>> >> <spr272000 RemoveThis @netzero.net> wrote in message
>> >> news:040fb7be-cb30-4eb0-9678-278ccf96ca62@i36g2000prf.googlegroups.com...
>> >> > while the reds continue to play patterson and his below .200
>> >> > average,
>> >> > jay bruce is batting in the .340's at AAA.. can anyone give me an
>> >> > explanation for such ignorance ? I thought the reason that hamilton
>> >> > was traded is because bruce was ready to play with the big club. you
>> >> > would think that the new GM would have made the move right away. the
>> >> > whole organisation can't be stupid, there has to be some explanation
>> >> > for this. did bruce have problems with defense in spring training ?
>> >> > I
>> >> > know that baker likes patterson, but that can't be all there is to
>> >> > it.
>> >> > if I were the owner of the reds I would tell baker that patterson
>> >> > goes
>> >> > or you do.
>> >>
>> >> Is it Ron or Dan who usually gives us the predicted stats for a guy
>> >> coming
>> >> out of the minors into the show? What would that be for Bruce, and
>> >> what
>> >> was
>> >> it for Votto's rookie year? How about last year's rookie of the year
>> >> Ryan
>> >> Braun?
>> >
>> > That would be me.
>> >
>> > Votto's definitely hitting for more power than ZiPS expected, I had him
>> > projected at 281/357/466. I released a tool for in-season projections
>> > a
>> > while back and now have Votto at 283/361/476 for the rest of the year.
>> >
>> > Braun was a miss. Easy to see why. He hit 289/357/514 splitting the
>> > year between High-A and AA so my 262/321/440 projection for 2007 wasn't
>> > really all that mean. Of course, he absolutely exploded, hitting
>> > 342/418/701 for Nashville and we all know what he did in the majors.
>> > Even surprised the Brewers who really liked him already - they were
>> > actually scrambling when it became clear that Corey Koskie wasn't going
>> > to be OK and trying to use Tony Graffanino as a fill-in. Turns out the
>> > Graffanino/Counsell mess didn't last too long.
>> >
>> > I had Bruce projected at 266/317/476. He translates as 282/317/496 at
>> > the moment, so if he's promoted, I hope people aren't disappointed he's
>> > just a really, really good centerfielder at this moment and not Mays.
>>
>> Hmmm........I don't know. That seems awfully conservative for a guy
>> hitting
>> .366 in triple A. Of course, we all remember Brandon Larson.
>
> He was only hitting .315 and slugging like .530 when I did the
> translation. After this comment, I checked and it appears Sean's not
> having minor league numbers update with the same frequency of the major
> league ones. I'm going to go annoy him when I finish this post.
>
> At 366/398/662 (wow, he's been hot lately), I have the translation at
> 297/350/510. It's a significantly more severe batting average
> translation than typical mainly because he's got a .436 BABIP, which
> can't help but go down a minimum of 75 points in the majors.

He has been extremely hot over the past few weeks. Those predictions put
him ahead of Griffey and Patterson's production. Oh, Dunn too!
 >> Stay informed about: jay bruce 

On Thu, 15 May 2008 19:39:47 -0400, "RJA" <rja.TakeThisOut@nospam.cinci.rr.com>
wrote:

>"Kevin McClave" <kmcclave.TakeThisOut@SPAM666twcny.rr.com> wrote in message
>news:ftdo24djkb621nu0o7f81oahuigtrahb7h@4ax.com...
>> On Wed, 14 May 2008 20:36:31 -0400, Dan Szymborski
>> <dan.TakeThisOut@baseballprimer.com> wrote:
>>
>>>I had Bruce projected at 266/317/476. He translates as 282/317/496 at
>>>the moment, so if he's promoted, I hope people aren't disappointed he's
>>>just a really, really good centerfielder at this moment and not Mays.
>>
>> Is Bruce a true ML CF defensively? Or is he a CF in the same way Austin
>> Kearns and Wily Mo Pena were CFs, or KGJ was for a good bit of time in
>> Cincy? I seem to recall some brief discussion of this in the spring;
>> that he may be more a RF than a CF in the majors.
>
>RF, although they're giving him plenty of time in CF and LF at AAA.

If that's the case, shouldn't we really weigh his MLE as a RF? Is the
plan that they will eventually play him in CF in the majors? I recall
someone here (may have been you, Rich) saying he is not a major league
caliber CF defensively. I don't know that I'd expect someone to mature
in to one, either.

******************************************************************
Kevin McClave

"To justify himself, each relies on
the other's crime." ~Albert Camus
******************************************************************
 >> Stay informed about: jay bruce 

On Thu, 15 May 2008 19:49:31 -0400, "RJA" <rja.RemoveThis@nospam.cinci.rr.com>
wrote:

>"Dan Szymborski" <dan.RemoveThis@baseballprimer.com> wrote in message
>news:MPG.22954f7c19191e9c98971c@news-server.woh.rr.com...
>> In article <482a534a$0$12906$4c368faf@roadrunner.com>,
>> rja.RemoveThis@nospam.cinci.rr.com says...
>>> <spr272000.RemoveThis@netzero.net> wrote in message
>>> news:040fb7be-cb30-4eb0-9678-278ccf96ca62@i36g2000prf.googlegroups.com...
>>> > while the reds continue to play patterson and his below .200 average,
>>> > jay bruce is batting in the .340's at AAA.. can anyone give me an
>>> > explanation for such ignorance ? I thought the reason that hamilton
>>> > was traded is because bruce was ready to play with the big club. you
>>> > would think that the new GM would have made the move right away. the
>>> > whole organisation can't be stupid, there has to be some explanation
>>> > for this. did bruce have problems with defense in spring training ? I
>>> > know that baker likes patterson, but that can't be all there is to it.
>>> > if I were the owner of the reds I would tell baker that patterson goes
>>> > or you do.
>>>
>>> Is it Ron or Dan who usually gives us the predicted stats for a guy
>>> coming
>>> out of the minors into the show? What would that be for Bruce, and what
>>> was
>>> it for Votto's rookie year? How about last year's rookie of the year
>>> Ryan
>>> Braun?
>>
>> That would be me.
>>
>> Votto's definitely hitting for more power than ZiPS expected, I had him
>> projected at 281/357/466. I released a tool for in-season projections a
>> while back and now have Votto at 283/361/476 for the rest of the year.
>>
>> Braun was a miss. Easy to see why. He hit 289/357/514 splitting the
>> year between High-A and AA so my 262/321/440 projection for 2007 wasn't
>> really all that mean. Of course, he absolutely exploded, hitting
>> 342/418/701 for Nashville and we all know what he did in the majors.
>> Even surprised the Brewers who really liked him already - they were
>> actually scrambling when it became clear that Corey Koskie wasn't going
>> to be OK and trying to use Tony Graffanino as a fill-in. Turns out the
>> Graffanino/Counsell mess didn't last too long.
>>
>> I had Bruce projected at 266/317/476. He translates as 282/317/496 at
>> the moment, so if he's promoted, I hope people aren't disappointed he's
>> just a really, really good centerfielder at this moment and not Mays.
>
>Hmmm........I don't know. That seems awfully conservative for a guy hitting
>.366 in triple A. Of course, we all remember Brandon Larson.

No matter how hard we try to forget.

******************************************************************
Kevin McClave

"To justify himself, each relies on
the other's crime." ~Albert Camus
******************************************************************
 >> Stay informed about: jay bruce 

"Kevin McClave" <kmcclave RemoveThis @SPAM666twcny.rr.com> wrote in message
news:qdtq24tk18dj5cblqd296v0rigi53l7bai@4ax.com...
> On Thu, 15 May 2008 19:49:31 -0400, "RJA" <rja RemoveThis @nospam.cinci.rr.com>
> wrote:
>
>>"Dan Szymborski" <dan RemoveThis @baseballprimer.com> wrote in message
>>news:MPG.22954f7c19191e9c98971c@news-server.woh.rr.com...
>>> In article <482a534a$0$12906$4c368faf@roadrunner.com>,
>>> rja RemoveThis @nospam.cinci.rr.com says...
>>>> <spr272000 RemoveThis @netzero.net> wrote in message
>>>> news:040fb7be-cb30-4eb0-9678-278ccf96ca62@i36g2000prf.googlegroups.com...
>>>> > while the reds continue to play patterson and his below .200 average,
>>>> > jay bruce is batting in the .340's at AAA.. can anyone give me an
>>>> > explanation for such ignorance ? I thought the reason that hamilton
>>>> > was traded is because bruce was ready to play with the big club. you
>>>> > would think that the new GM would have made the move right away. the
>>>> > whole organisation can't be stupid, there has to be some explanation
>>>> > for this. did bruce have problems with defense in spring training ? I
>>>> > know that baker likes patterson, but that can't be all there is to
>>>> > it.
>>>> > if I were the owner of the reds I would tell baker that patterson
>>>> > goes
>>>> > or you do.
>>>>
>>>> Is it Ron or Dan who usually gives us the predicted stats for a guy
>>>> coming
>>>> out of the minors into the show? What would that be for Bruce, and
>>>> what
>>>> was
>>>> it for Votto's rookie year? How about last year's rookie of the year
>>>> Ryan
>>>> Braun?
>>>
>>> That would be me.
>>>
>>> Votto's definitely hitting for more power than ZiPS expected, I had him
>>> projected at 281/357/466. I released a tool for in-season projections a
>>> while back and now have Votto at 283/361/476 for the rest of the year.
>>>
>>> Braun was a miss. Easy to see why. He hit 289/357/514 splitting the
>>> year between High-A and AA so my 262/321/440 projection for 2007 wasn't
>>> really all that mean. Of course, he absolutely exploded, hitting
>>> 342/418/701 for Nashville and we all know what he did in the majors.
>>> Even surprised the Brewers who really liked him already - they were
>>> actually scrambling when it became clear that Corey Koskie wasn't going
>>> to be OK and trying to use Tony Graffanino as a fill-in. Turns out the
>>> Graffanino/Counsell mess didn't last too long.
>>>
>>> I had Bruce projected at 266/317/476. He translates as 282/317/496 at
>>> the moment, so if he's promoted, I hope people aren't disappointed he's
>>> just a really, really good centerfielder at this moment and not Mays.
>>
>>Hmmm........I don't know. That seems awfully conservative for a guy
>>hitting
>>.366 in triple A. Of course, we all remember Brandon Larson.
>
> No matter how hard we try to forget.

What on earth do you mean? ???

All he needs is ONE MORE CHANCE!
 >> Stay informed about: jay bruce 

On Fri, 16 May 2008 09:19:19 -0400, "Stebain" <stebain.RemoveThis@oh-hell-no.com>
wrote:

>
>"Kevin McClave" <kmcclave.RemoveThis@SPAM666twcny.rr.com> wrote in message
>news:qdtq24tk18dj5cblqd296v0rigi53l7bai@4ax.com...
>> On Thu, 15 May 2008 19:49:31 -0400, "RJA" <rja.RemoveThis@nospam.cinci.rr.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>>>"Dan Szymborski" <dan.RemoveThis@baseballprimer.com> wrote in message
>>>news:MPG.22954f7c19191e9c98971c@news-server.woh.rr.com...
>>>> In article <482a534a$0$12906$4c368faf@roadrunner.com>,
>>>> rja.RemoveThis@nospam.cinci.rr.com says...
>>>>> <spr272000.RemoveThis@netzero.net> wrote in message
>>>>> news:040fb7be-cb30-4eb0-9678-278ccf96ca62@i36g2000prf.googlegroups.com...
>>>>> > while the reds continue to play patterson and his below .200 average,
>>>>> > jay bruce is batting in the .340's at AAA.. can anyone give me an
>>>>> > explanation for such ignorance ? I thought the reason that hamilton
>>>>> > was traded is because bruce was ready to play with the big club. you
>>>>> > would think that the new GM would have made the move right away. the
>>>>> > whole organisation can't be stupid, there has to be some explanation
>>>>> > for this. did bruce have problems with defense in spring training ? I
>>>>> > know that baker likes patterson, but that can't be all there is to
>>>>> > it.
>>>>> > if I were the owner of the reds I would tell baker that patterson
>>>>> > goes
>>>>> > or you do.
>>>>>
>>>>> Is it Ron or Dan who usually gives us the predicted stats for a guy
>>>>> coming
>>>>> out of the minors into the show? What would that be for Bruce, and
>>>>> what
>>>>> was
>>>>> it for Votto's rookie year? How about last year's rookie of the year
>>>>> Ryan
>>>>> Braun?
>>>>
>>>> That would be me.
>>>>
>>>> Votto's definitely hitting for more power than ZiPS expected, I had him
>>>> projected at 281/357/466. I released a tool for in-season projections a
>>>> while back and now have Votto at 283/361/476 for the rest of the year.
>>>>
>>>> Braun was a miss. Easy to see why. He hit 289/357/514 splitting the
>>>> year between High-A and AA so my 262/321/440 projection for 2007 wasn't
>>>> really all that mean. Of course, he absolutely exploded, hitting
>>>> 342/418/701 for Nashville and we all know what he did in the majors.
>>>> Even surprised the Brewers who really liked him already - they were
>>>> actually scrambling when it became clear that Corey Koskie wasn't going
>>>> to be OK and trying to use Tony Graffanino as a fill-in. Turns out the
>>>> Graffanino/Counsell mess didn't last too long.
>>>>
>>>> I had Bruce projected at 266/317/476. He translates as 282/317/496 at
>>>> the moment, so if he's promoted, I hope people aren't disappointed he's
>>>> just a really, really good centerfielder at this moment and not Mays.
>>>
>>>Hmmm........I don't know. That seems awfully conservative for a guy
>>>hitting
>>>.366 in triple A. Of course, we all remember Brandon Larson.
>>
>> No matter how hard we try to forget.
>
>What on earth do you mean? ???
>
>All he needs is ONE MORE CHANCE!

Brandon had good taste in women, though. Several years ago when the Bats
were in Syracuse, he kept staring at my (now) wife from the on deck
circle every time he got on deck.

******************************************************************
Kevin McClave

"To justify himself, each relies on
the other's crime." ~Albert Camus
******************************************************************
 >> Stay informed about: jay bruce 

On May 16, 9:57 am, Kevin McClave <kmccl... RemoveThis @SPAM666twcny.rr.com>
wrote:

>
> Brandon had good taste in women, though. Several years ago when the Bats
> were in Syracuse, he kept staring at my (now) wife from the on deck
> circle every time he got on deck.

So your strategy was to find out who Brandon was checking out and to
marry her?
 >> Stay informed about: jay bruce 

"Kevin McClave" <kmcclave.TakeThisOut@SPAM666twcny.rr.com> wrote in message
news:qdtq24tk18dj5cblqd296v0rigi53l7bai@4ax.com...
> On Thu, 15 May 2008 19:49:31 -0400, "RJA" <rja.TakeThisOut@nospam.cinci.rr.com>
> wrote:
>
>>"Dan Szymborski" <dan.TakeThisOut@baseballprimer.com> wrote in message
>>news:MPG.22954f7c19191e9c98971c@news-server.woh.rr.com...
>>> In article <482a534a$0$12906$4c368faf@roadrunner.com>,
>>> rja.TakeThisOut@nospam.cinci.rr.com says...
>>>> <spr272000.TakeThisOut@netzero.net> wrote in message
>>>> news:040fb7be-cb30-4eb0-9678-278ccf96ca62@i36g2000prf.googlegroups.com...
>>>> > while the reds continue to play patterson and his below .200 average,
>>>> > jay bruce is batting in the .340's at AAA.. can anyone give me an
>>>> > explanation for such ignorance ? I thought the reason that hamilton
>>>> > was traded is because bruce was ready to play with the big club. you
>>>> > would think that the new GM would have made the move right away. the
>>>> > whole organisation can't be stupid, there has to be some explanation
>>>> > for this. did bruce have problems with defense in spring training ? I
>>>> > know that baker likes patterson, but that can't be all there is to
>>>> > it.
>>>> > if I were the owner of the reds I would tell baker that patterson
>>>> > goes
>>>> > or you do.
>>>>
>>>> Is it Ron or Dan who usually gives us the predicted stats for a guy
>>>> coming
>>>> out of the minors into the show? What would that be for Bruce, and
>>>> what
>>>> was
>>>> it for Votto's rookie year? How about last year's rookie of the year
>>>> Ryan
>>>> Braun?
>>>
>>> That would be me.
>>>
>>> Votto's definitely hitting for more power than ZiPS expected, I had him
>>> projected at 281/357/466. I released a tool for in-season projections a
>>> while back and now have Votto at 283/361/476 for the rest of the year.
>>>
>>> Braun was a miss. Easy to see why. He hit 289/357/514 splitting the
>>> year between High-A and AA so my 262/321/440 projection for 2007 wasn't
>>> really all that mean. Of course, he absolutely exploded, hitting
>>> 342/418/701 for Nashville and we all know what he did in the majors.
>>> Even surprised the Brewers who really liked him already - they were
>>> actually scrambling when it became clear that Corey Koskie wasn't going
>>> to be OK and trying to use Tony Graffanino as a fill-in. Turns out the
>>> Graffanino/Counsell mess didn't last too long.
>>>
>>> I had Bruce projected at 266/317/476. He translates as 282/317/496 at
>>> the moment, so if he's promoted, I hope people aren't disappointed he's
>>> just a really, really good centerfielder at this moment and not Mays.
>>
>>Hmmm........I don't know. That seems awfully conservative for a guy
>>hitting
>>.366 in triple A. Of course, we all remember Brandon Larson.
>
> No matter how hard we try to forget.

Doc Rogers, previously assistant GM to Leather Pants does the post game talk
show now, and a lot of the things that he says are very interesting. He has
pretty much said that the Reds, even when they didn't have any talent in the
minors, did a lot of "marketing" which led us to believe that they did. All
those pitchers that never became anything..........Howington, Aramboles,
Gruler, and then your position players like Larson, Kearns (who now we know
was just marketing), etc.
 >> Stay informed about: jay bruce 

"Kevin McClave" <kmcclave RemoveThis @SPAM666twcny.rr.com> wrote in message
news:l9tq2498amreiedfnibkvt2crmtu274521@4ax.com...
> On Thu, 15 May 2008 19:39:47 -0400, "RJA" <rja RemoveThis @nospam.cinci.rr.com>
> wrote:
>
>>"Kevin McClave" <kmcclave RemoveThis @SPAM666twcny.rr.com> wrote in message
>>news:ftdo24djkb621nu0o7f81oahuigtrahb7h@4ax.com...
>>> On Wed, 14 May 2008 20:36:31 -0400, Dan Szymborski
>>> <dan RemoveThis @baseballprimer.com> wrote:
>>>
>>>>I had Bruce projected at 266/317/476. He translates as 282/317/496 at
>>>>the moment, so if he's promoted, I hope people aren't disappointed he's
>>>>just a really, really good centerfielder at this moment and not Mays.
>>>
>>> Is Bruce a true ML CF defensively? Or is he a CF in the same way Austin
>>> Kearns and Wily Mo Pena were CFs, or KGJ was for a good bit of time in
>>> Cincy? I seem to recall some brief discussion of this in the spring;
>>> that he may be more a RF than a CF in the majors.
>>
>>RF, although they're giving him plenty of time in CF and LF at AAA.
>
> If that's the case, shouldn't we really weigh his MLE as a RF? Is the
> plan that they will eventually play him in CF in the majors? I recall
> someone here (may have been you, Rich) saying he is not a major league
> caliber CF defensively. I don't know that I'd expect someone to mature
> in to one, either.

Didn't realize those numbers would change if he played RF. In my opinion,
it's time for him to take over RF. Jr is offically killing us in that
3-hole.
 >> Stay informed about: jay bruce 

On Sat, 17 May 2008 20:17:51 -0400, "RJA" <rja.DeleteThis@nospam.cinci.rr.com>
wrote:

>"Kevin McClave" <kmcclave.DeleteThis@SPAM666twcny.rr.com> wrote in message
>news:l9tq2498amreiedfnibkvt2crmtu274521@4ax.com...
>> On Thu, 15 May 2008 19:39:47 -0400, "RJA" <rja.DeleteThis@nospam.cinci.rr.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>>>"Kevin McClave" <kmcclave.DeleteThis@SPAM666twcny.rr.com> wrote in message
>>>news:ftdo24djkb621nu0o7f81oahuigtrahb7h@4ax.com...
>>>> On Wed, 14 May 2008 20:36:31 -0400, Dan Szymborski
>>>> <dan.DeleteThis@baseballprimer.com> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>I had Bruce projected at 266/317/476. He translates as 282/317/496 at
>>>>>the moment, so if he's promoted, I hope people aren't disappointed he's
>>>>>just a really, really good centerfielder at this moment and not Mays.
>>>>
>>>> Is Bruce a true ML CF defensively? Or is he a CF in the same way Austin
>>>> Kearns and Wily Mo Pena were CFs, or KGJ was for a good bit of time in
>>>> Cincy? I seem to recall some brief discussion of this in the spring;
>>>> that he may be more a RF than a CF in the majors.
>>>
>>>RF, although they're giving him plenty of time in CF and LF at AAA.
>>
>> If that's the case, shouldn't we really weigh his MLE as a RF? Is the
>> plan that they will eventually play him in CF in the majors? I recall
>> someone here (may have been you, Rich) saying he is not a major league
>> caliber CF defensively. I don't know that I'd expect someone to mature
>> in to one, either.
>
>Didn't realize those numbers would change if he played RF. In my opinion,
>it's time for him to take over RF. Jr is offically killing us in that
>3-hole.

His MLE wouldn't change, but the offensive value he brings is greater as
a CF than as a RF.

********************************************************************
Kevin McClave

"Courage, the footstool of the Virtues, upon
which they stand." ~Robert Louis Stevenson
********************************************************************
 >> Stay informed about: jay bruce 

On Sat, 17 May 2008 20:15:59 -0400, "RJA" <rja DeleteThis @nospam.cinci.rr.com>
wrote:

>"Kevin McClave" <kmcclave DeleteThis @SPAM666twcny.rr.com> wrote in message
>news:qdtq24tk18dj5cblqd296v0rigi53l7bai@4ax.com...
>> On Thu, 15 May 2008 19:49:31 -0400, "RJA" <rja DeleteThis @nospam.cinci.rr.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>>>"Dan Szymborski" <dan DeleteThis @baseballprimer.com> wrote in message
>>>news:MPG.22954f7c19191e9c98971c@news-server.woh.rr.com...
>>>> In article <482a534a$0$12906$4c368faf@roadrunner.com>,
>>>> rja DeleteThis @nospam.cinci.rr.com says...
>>>>> <spr272000 DeleteThis @netzero.net> wrote in message
>>>>> news:040fb7be-cb30-4eb0-9678-278ccf96ca62@i36g2000prf.googlegroups.com...
>>>>> > while the reds continue to play patterson and his below .200 average,
>>>>> > jay bruce is batting in the .340's at AAA.. can anyone give me an
>>>>> > explanation for such ignorance ? I thought the reason that hamilton
>>>>> > was traded is because bruce was ready to play with the big club. you
>>>>> > would think that the new GM would have made the move right away. the
>>>>> > whole organisation can't be stupid, there has to be some explanation
>>>>> > for this. did bruce have problems with defense in spring training ? I
>>>>> > know that baker likes patterson, but that can't be all there is to
>>>>> > it.
>>>>> > if I were the owner of the reds I would tell baker that patterson
>>>>> > goes
>>>>> > or you do.
>>>>>
>>>>> Is it Ron or Dan who usually gives us the predicted stats for a guy
>>>>> coming
>>>>> out of the minors into the show? What would that be for Bruce, and
>>>>> what
>>>>> was
>>>>> it for Votto's rookie year? How about last year's rookie of the year
>>>>> Ryan
>>>>> Braun?
>>>>
>>>> That would be me.
>>>>
>>>> Votto's definitely hitting for more power than ZiPS expected, I had him
>>>> projected at 281/357/466. I released a tool for in-season projections a
>>>> while back and now have Votto at 283/361/476 for the rest of the year.
>>>>
>>>> Braun was a miss. Easy to see why. He hit 289/357/514 splitting the
>>>> year between High-A and AA so my 262/321/440 projection for 2007 wasn't
>>>> really all that mean. Of course, he absolutely exploded, hitting
>>>> 342/418/701 for Nashville and we all know what he did in the majors.
>>>> Even surprised the Brewers who really liked him already - they were
>>>> actually scrambling when it became clear that Corey Koskie wasn't going
>>>> to be OK and trying to use Tony Graffanino as a fill-in. Turns out the
>>>> Graffanino/Counsell mess didn't last too long.
>>>>
>>>> I had Bruce projected at 266/317/476. He translates as 282/317/496 at
>>>> the moment, so if he's promoted, I hope people aren't disappointed he's
>>>> just a really, really good centerfielder at this moment and not Mays.
>>>
>>>Hmmm........I don't know. That seems awfully conservative for a guy
>>>hitting
>>>.366 in triple A. Of course, we all remember Brandon Larson.
>>
>> No matter how hard we try to forget.
>
>Doc Rogers, previously assistant GM to Leather Pants does the post game talk
>show now, and a lot of the things that he says are very interesting. He has
>pretty much said that the Reds, even when they didn't have any talent in the
>minors, did a lot of "marketing" which led us to believe that they did. All
>those pitchers that never became anything..........Howington, Aramboles,
>Gruler, and then your position players like Larson, Kearns (who now we know
>was just marketing), etc.

Well, maybe you left something out, but saying all they did was market
those guys is more than a bit disingenuous. Kearns had some ML success
and Larson certainly demolished AAA pitching many times. I mean, it
isn't like we thought Juan Castro was a legit player or something.

********************************************************************
Kevin McClave

"Courage, the footstool of the Virtues, upon
which they stand." ~Robert Louis Stevenson
********************************************************************
 >> Stay informed about: jay bruce 

"RJA" <rja DeleteThis @nospam.cinci.rr.com> wrote in message
news:482f7525$0$5699$4c368faf@roadrunner.com...
> Doc Rogers, previously assistant GM to Leather Pants does the post game
> talk show now, and a lot of the things that he says are very interesting.
> He has pretty much said that the Reds, even when they didn't have any
> talent in the minors, did a lot of "marketing" which led us to believe
> that they did. All those pitchers that never became
> anything..........Howington, Aramboles, Gruler, and then your position
> players like Larson, Kearns (who now we know was just marketing), etc.

At one time Kearns was just a touch below where Jay Bruce is right now.
Sometimes things just don't work out.

By all accounts Kearns seems to have stubborned away a real career.

dfs
 >> Stay informed about: jay bruce 

"David Short" <David.No.Short.TakeThisOut@Spam.Wright.Please.Edu> wrote in message
news:g0qaoi$p1t$1@posting.glorb.com...
> "RJA" <rja.TakeThisOut@nospam.cinci.rr.com> wrote in message
> news:482f7525$0$5699$4c368faf@roadrunner.com...
>> Doc Rogers, previously assistant GM to Leather Pants does the post game
>> talk show now, and a lot of the things that he says are very interesting.
>> He has pretty much said that the Reds, even when they didn't have any
>> talent in the minors, did a lot of "marketing" which led us to believe
>> that they did. All those pitchers that never became
>> anything..........Howington, Aramboles, Gruler, and then your position
>> players like Larson, Kearns (who now we know was just marketing), etc.
>
> At one time Kearns was just a touch below where Jay Bruce is right now.
> Sometimes things just don't work out.

Are you sure about that? Looking at his numbers, he did very well in
A-ball, but that's about it before being called up in 2002. Pretty
consistent with that "marketing" thing.

http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=7592

Howver, Bruce is killing at every level.

> By all accounts Kearns seems to have stubborned away a real career.

..187 this year.
 >> Stay informed about: jay bruce