jay bruce

spr272000 DeleteThis @netzero.net wrote in news:040fb7be-cb30-4eb0-9678-278ccf96ca62
@i36g2000prf.googlegroups.com:

> while the reds continue to play patterson and his below .200 average,
> jay bruce is batting in the .340's at AAA.. can anyone give me an
> explanation for such ignorance ? I thought the reason that hamilton
> was traded is because bruce was ready to play with the big club. you
> would think that the new GM would have made the move right away. the
> whole organisation can't be stupid, there has to be some explanation
> for this. did bruce have problems with defense in spring training ? I
> know that baker likes patterson, but that can't be all there is to it.
> if I were the owner of the reds I would tell baker that patterson goes
> or you do.
>

Sure, there's an easy explanation -- the Reds are going to keep Bruce in
the minors until sometime in June so they can push back his free agency
date by a year. They've waited this long, I can't imagine them bringing
him up now.
 >> Stay informed about: jay bruce 

On May 12, 6:41 pm, tom dunne <dunn... RemoveThis @gmail.com> wrote:
> On May 12, 9:20 pm, spr272... RemoveThis @netzero.net wrote:
>
> > while the reds continue to play patterson and his below .200 average,
> > jay bruce is batting in the .340's at AAA.. can anyone give me an
> > explanation for such ignorance ? I thought the reason that hamilton
> > was traded is because bruce was ready to play with the big club. you
> > would think that the new GM would have made the move right away. the
> > whole organisation can't be stupid, there has to be some explanation
> > for this. did bruce have problems with defense in spring training ? I
> > know that baker likes patterson, but that can't be all there is to it.
> > if I were the owner of the reds I would tell baker that patterson goes
> > or you do.
>
> I think it has to do with Bruce's future contracts.  I can't remember
> the exact date, but I think if they call him up before June 11th and
> keep him on the roster, he will be available for arbitration one year
> earlier than if they wait until after the 11th (this is called 'Super
> Two' arbitration.)  If Bruce turns out to be an absolute phenom,
> delaying his callup a few more weeks could save them millions of
> dollars.  The Phillies are paying Ryan Howard $10 million this season
> because he qualified for 'Super Two' arbitration, which is about $9
> million more than if he had been a typical player with less than three
> years of experience.
>
> Yeah, it's complicated.  The important thing is that calling up Bruce
> now won't save the season, and a month of extra experience in the
> majors isn't worth the potential millions they'd have to pay him in
> 2011.
>
> That's my theory, anyway

thank's guy's, I new there had to be a logical explanation.
 >> Stay informed about: jay bruce 

On May 13, 8:27 am, Dan Szymborski <d... RemoveThis @baseballprimer.com> wrote:
> In article <ca0b985a-bc53-414c-85aa-81b8b7a82da5
> @d45g2000hsc.googlegroups.com>, dunn... RemoveThis @gmail.com says...
>
>
>
> > On May 12, 9:20 pm, spr272... RemoveThis @netzero.net wrote:
> > > while the reds continue to play patterson and his below .200 average,
> > > jay bruce is batting in the .340's at AAA.. can anyone give me an
> > > explanation for such ignorance ? I thought the reason that hamilton
> > > was traded is because bruce was ready to play with the big club. you
> > > would think that the new GM would have made the move right away. the
> > > whole organisation can't be stupid, there has to be some explanation
> > > for this. did bruce have problems with defense in spring training ? I
> > > know that baker likes patterson, but that can't be all there is to it.
> > > if I were the owner of the reds I would tell baker that patterson goes
> > > or you do.
>
> > I think it has to do with Bruce's future contracts. I can't remember
> > the exact date, but I think if they call him up before June 11th and
> > keep him on the roster, he will be available for arbitration one year
> > earlier than if they wait until after the 11th (this is called 'Super
> > Two' arbitration.) If Bruce turns out to be an absolute phenom,
> > delaying his callup a few more weeks could save them millions of
> > dollars. The Phillies are paying Ryan Howard $10 million this season
> > because he qualified for 'Super Two' arbitration, which is about $9
> > million more than if he had been a typical player with less than three
> > years of experience.
>
> It's not an exact date. Super Twos are those players that rank in the
> top 17% of service time of those with more than 2 full years but not 3
> full years of service and had at least 86 days of service in the
> immediately preceding season. The more teams push back to try and stop
> players from being super-twos, the later that in-season "deadline"
> becomes.

No wonder the date seems to move every time I read it. Thanks, Dan.
 >> Stay informed about: jay bruce 

In article <ca0b985a-bc53-414c-85aa-81b8b7a82da5
@d45g2000hsc.googlegroups.com>, dunnetg.TakeThisOut@gmail.com says...
> On May 12, 9:20 pm, spr272....TakeThisOut@netzero.net wrote:
> > while the reds continue to play patterson and his below .200 average,
> > jay bruce is batting in the .340's at AAA.. can anyone give me an
> > explanation for such ignorance ? I thought the reason that hamilton
> > was traded is because bruce was ready to play with the big club. you
> > would think that the new GM would have made the move right away. the
> > whole organisation can't be stupid, there has to be some explanation
> > for this. did bruce have problems with defense in spring training ? I
> > know that baker likes patterson, but that can't be all there is to it.
> > if I were the owner of the reds I would tell baker that patterson goes
> > or you do.
>
> I think it has to do with Bruce's future contracts. I can't remember
> the exact date, but I think if they call him up before June 11th and
> keep him on the roster, he will be available for arbitration one year
> earlier than if they wait until after the 11th (this is called 'Super
> Two' arbitration.) If Bruce turns out to be an absolute phenom,
> delaying his callup a few more weeks could save them millions of
> dollars. The Phillies are paying Ryan Howard $10 million this season
> because he qualified for 'Super Two' arbitration, which is about $9
> million more than if he had been a typical player with less than three
> years of experience.

It's not an exact date. Super Twos are those players that rank in the
top 17% of service time of those with more than 2 full years but not 3
full years of service and had at least 86 days of service in the
immediately preceding season. The more teams push back to try and stop
players from being super-twos, the later that in-season "deadline"
becomes.

--
Dan Szymborski
dan.TakeThisOut@baseballprimer.REMOVE.com

"A critic who refuses to attack what is bad is
not a whole-hearted supporter of what is good."
- Robert Schumann
 >> Stay informed about: jay bruce 

<spr272000.RemoveThis@netzero.net> wrote in message
news:c9d50bec-1596-4fea-b57a-3d4705df58f6@x19g2000prg.googlegroups.com...
On May 12, 6:41 pm, tom dunne <dunn....RemoveThis@gmail.com> wrote:
> On May 12, 9:20 pm, spr272....RemoveThis@netzero.net wrote:
>
> > while the reds continue to play patterson and his below .200 average,
> > jay bruce is batting in the .340's at AAA.. can anyone give me an
> > explanation for such ignorance ? I thought the reason that hamilton
> > was traded is because bruce was ready to play with the big club. you
> > would think that the new GM would have made the move right away. the
> > whole organisation can't be stupid, there has to be some explanation
> > for this. did bruce have problems with defense in spring training ? I
> > know that baker likes patterson, but that can't be all there is to it.
> > if I were the owner of the reds I would tell baker that patterson goes
> > or you do.
>
> I think it has to do with Bruce's future contracts. I can't remember
> the exact date, but I think if they call him up before June 11th and
> keep him on the roster, he will be available for arbitration one year
> earlier than if they wait until after the 11th (this is called 'Super
> Two' arbitration.) If Bruce turns out to be an absolute phenom,
> delaying his callup a few more weeks could save them millions of
> dollars. The Phillies are paying Ryan Howard $10 million this season
> because he qualified for 'Super Two' arbitration, which is about $9
> million more than if he had been a typical player with less than three
> years of experience.
>
> Yeah, it's complicated. The important thing is that calling up Bruce
> now won't save the season, and a month of extra experience in the
> majors isn't worth the potential millions they'd have to pay him in
> 2011.
>
> That's my theory, anyway

>thank's guy's, I new there had to be a logical explanation.

Expect him to be up before that. Castellini is not going to worry about a
couple million if it means winning.
 >> Stay informed about: jay bruce 

<spr272000.DeleteThis@netzero.net> wrote in message
news:040fb7be-cb30-4eb0-9678-278ccf96ca62@i36g2000prf.googlegroups.com...
> while the reds continue to play patterson and his below .200 average,
> jay bruce is batting in the .340's at AAA.. can anyone give me an
> explanation for such ignorance ? I thought the reason that hamilton
> was traded is because bruce was ready to play with the big club. you
> would think that the new GM would have made the move right away. the
> whole organisation can't be stupid, there has to be some explanation
> for this. did bruce have problems with defense in spring training ? I
> know that baker likes patterson, but that can't be all there is to it.
> if I were the owner of the reds I would tell baker that patterson goes
> or you do.

Is it Ron or Dan who usually gives us the predicted stats for a guy coming
out of the minors into the show? What would that be for Bruce, and what was
it for Votto's rookie year? How about last year's rookie of the year Ryan
Braun?
 >> Stay informed about: jay bruce 

On May 13, 10:50 pm, "RJA" <r... DeleteThis @nospam.cinci.rr.com> wrote:

>
> Is it Ron or Dan who usually gives us the predicted stats
> for a guy coming out of the minors into the show?

Dan. Though I can do an MLE, Dan's put a ton of
work into refining the method.

> What would that be for Bruce,

Coming into the year. .266/.317/.476

And that looks pretty reasonable still. Only 5
unintentional walks.

> and what was it for Votto's rookie year?

..259/.334/.451

> How about last year's rookie of the year Ryan Braun?

..262/.331/.440

With the caveat that he'd wasted about a year and a
half on leagues that he was obviously too good for.

His time in A ball had little predictive value, leaving
only ~250 PAs at AA.

As Dan knows I have a theory that you should be
very optimistic about players that you don't
have a lot to work with. Generally speaking the
guys who blow through the minors quickly are
special.
 >> Stay informed about: jay bruce 

In article <482a534a$0$12906$4c368faf@roadrunner.com>,
rja.RemoveThis@nospam.cinci.rr.com says...
> <spr272000.RemoveThis@netzero.net> wrote in message
> news:040fb7be-cb30-4eb0-9678-278ccf96ca62@i36g2000prf.googlegroups.com...
> > while the reds continue to play patterson and his below .200 average,
> > jay bruce is batting in the .340's at AAA.. can anyone give me an
> > explanation for such ignorance ? I thought the reason that hamilton
> > was traded is because bruce was ready to play with the big club. you
> > would think that the new GM would have made the move right away. the
> > whole organisation can't be stupid, there has to be some explanation
> > for this. did bruce have problems with defense in spring training ? I
> > know that baker likes patterson, but that can't be all there is to it.
> > if I were the owner of the reds I would tell baker that patterson goes
> > or you do.
>
> Is it Ron or Dan who usually gives us the predicted stats for a guy coming
> out of the minors into the show? What would that be for Bruce, and what was
> it for Votto's rookie year? How about last year's rookie of the year Ryan
> Braun?

That would be me.

Votto's definitely hitting for more power than ZiPS expected, I had him
projected at 281/357/466. I released a tool for in-season projections a
while back and now have Votto at 283/361/476 for the rest of the year.

Braun was a miss. Easy to see why. He hit 289/357/514 splitting the
year between High-A and AA so my 262/321/440 projection for 2007 wasn't
really all that mean. Of course, he absolutely exploded, hitting
342/418/701 for Nashville and we all know what he did in the majors.
Even surprised the Brewers who really liked him already - they were
actually scrambling when it became clear that Corey Koskie wasn't going
to be OK and trying to use Tony Graffanino as a fill-in. Turns out the
Graffanino/Counsell mess didn't last too long.

I had Bruce projected at 266/317/476. He translates as 282/317/496 at
the moment, so if he's promoted, I hope people aren't disappointed he's
just a really, really good centerfielder at this moment and not Mays.

--
Dan Szymborski
dan.RemoveThis@baseballprimer.REMOVE.com

"A critic who refuses to attack what is bad is
not a whole-hearted supporter of what is good."
- Robert Schumann
 >> Stay informed about: jay bruce 

In article <25326872-36b5-4765-a302-ac5cfa4c7cb3@
2g2000hsn.googlegroups.com>, johnson RemoveThis @ccrs.nrcan.gc.ca says...
> On May 13, 10:50 pm, "RJA" <r... RemoveThis @nospam.cinci.rr.com> wrote:
>
> >
> > Is it Ron or Dan who usually gives us the predicted stats
> > for a guy coming out of the minors into the show?
>
> Dan. Though I can do an MLE, Dan's put a ton of
> work into refining the method.
>
> > What would that be for Bruce,
>
> Coming into the year. .266/.317/.476
>
> And that looks pretty reasonable still. Only 5
> unintentional walks.
>
> > and what was it for Votto's rookie year?
>
> .259/.334/.451

Oops, thought Rich wanted 2008.

--
Dan Szymborski
dan RemoveThis @baseballprimer.REMOVE.com

"A critic who refuses to attack what is bad is
not a whole-hearted supporter of what is good."
- Robert Schumann
 >> Stay informed about: jay bruce 

On May 14, 8:36 pm, Dan Szymborski <d....DeleteThis@baseballprimer.com> wrote:

>
> I had Bruce projected at 266/317/476. He translates as 282/317/496 at
> the moment, so if he's promoted, I hope people aren't disappointed he's
> just a really, really good centerfielder at this moment and not Mays.

Reminds me a lot of Juan Samuel (as an offensive player at
an rate), and while Samuel disappointed most people he
wasn't bad.

Like Samuel he rates to be a challenge to use effectively.
Mostly because he's not likely to ever gain command of
the strike zone and that's a tough way yo make a livig.
 >> Stay informed about: jay bruce 

U may be right about the money - but they could be at the top of the league
if they bring him up now and platoon Griffey and Dunn alternately allowing
Bruce to play full time. Its got to happen and soon.
"tom dunne" <dunnetg DeleteThis @gmail.com> wrote in message
news:ca0b985a-bc53-414c-85aa-81b8b7a82da5@d45g2000hsc.googlegroups.com...
On May 12, 9:20 pm, spr272... DeleteThis @netzero.net wrote:
> while the reds continue to play patterson and his below .200 average,
> jay bruce is batting in the .340's at AAA.. can anyone give me an
> explanation for such ignorance ? I thought the reason that hamilton
> was traded is because bruce was ready to play with the big club. you
> would think that the new GM would have made the move right away. the
> whole organisation can't be stupid, there has to be some explanation
> for this. did bruce have problems with defense in spring training ? I
> know that baker likes patterson, but that can't be all there is to it.
> if I were the owner of the reds I would tell baker that patterson goes
> or you do.

I think it has to do with Bruce's future contracts. I can't remember
the exact date, but I think if they call him up before June 11th and
keep him on the roster, he will be available for arbitration one year
earlier than if they wait until after the 11th (this is called 'Super
Two' arbitration.) If Bruce turns out to be an absolute phenom,
delaying his callup a few more weeks could save them millions of
dollars. The Phillies are paying Ryan Howard $10 million this season
because he qualified for 'Super Two' arbitration, which is about $9
million more than if he had been a typical player with less than three
years of experience.

Yeah, it's complicated. The important thing is that calling up Bruce
now won't save the season, and a month of extra experience in the
majors isn't worth the potential millions they'd have to pay him in
2011.

That's my theory, anyway
 >> Stay informed about: jay bruce 

On Mon, 12 May 2008 18:20:30 -0700 (PDT), spr272000.RemoveThis@netzero.net wrote:

>while the reds continue to play patterson and his below .200 average,
>jay bruce is batting in the .340's at AAA.. can anyone give me an
>explanation for such ignorance ? I thought the reason that hamilton
>was traded is because bruce was ready to play with the big club. you
>would think that the new GM would have made the move right away. the
>whole organisation can't be stupid, there has to be some explanation
>for this. did bruce have problems with defense in spring training ? I
>know that baker likes patterson, but that can't be all there is to it.
>if I were the owner of the reds I would tell baker that patterson goes
>or you do.

The reason the Reds traded Hamilton is that Hamilton is what the
Rangers wanted in return for Volquez and the Reds needed pitching help
a hell of a lot more than they needed a left-handed hitting outfielder
with a lot of baggage. It had nothing to do with Jay Bruce.

The reason Jay Bruce is still in the minor leagues is that the
organization does not feel he is ready for the major leagues.

There are two reasons the reds feel that way:

A) The fact thatr he still makes a lot of mistakes - alluded to by
Rick Sweet, the Bats' manager, earlier in the week, in comments quoted
in something I read online which I think may have been Hal McCoy's
blog though I'm not sure.

B) As John Erardi of the Enquirer pointed out earlier this week,
Bruce's OBP is not that much higher than his BA (from which the
organization concludes that he does not yet have the plate discipline
needed to succeeed in the majors). Erardi pointed out that his walk
rate in AAA is less than the NL average for non-pitchers. If he can't
do it in Louisville he's gonna have a helluva time in the bigs.

JK
(Cameo Appearance, now back to silence)
 >> Stay informed about: jay bruce 

On Wed, 14 May 2008 20:36:31 -0400, Dan Szymborski
<dan RemoveThis @baseballprimer.com> wrote:

>I had Bruce projected at 266/317/476. He translates as 282/317/496 at
>the moment, so if he's promoted, I hope people aren't disappointed he's
>just a really, really good centerfielder at this moment and not Mays.

Is Bruce a true ML CF defensively? Or is he a CF in the same way Austin
Kearns and Wily Mo Pena were CFs, or KGJ was for a good bit of time in
Cincy? I seem to recall some brief discussion of this in the spring;
that he may be more a RF than a CF in the majors.

******************************************************************
Kevin McClave

"To justify himself, each relies on
the other's crime." ~Albert Camus
******************************************************************
 >> Stay informed about: jay bruce