How good can we be?

Feel free to try your own logical analysis, although it's always easier to
just make snarky remarks.

1MF

"SkippyPB" wrote in message

> On Sat, 12 Feb 2005 09:58:05 -0500, "One Man's Fool"
> enlightened us:
>
> >This kind of analysis makes no accounting for injuries, because they
can't
> >be predicted, but here's how I see it:
> >
> >1. Maggs replacing Higginson in right field and taking over cleanup: Add
8
> >wins
> >2. Dmitri (presumably) does not miss two months on the DL: Add 2 wins
> >3. Percival, Farnsworth and a healthy Rodney shore up a bullpen in which
> >Urbina returns in a better role for him and Walker is Walker. We had
> >something like 23 blown saves last year, so I don't think it's
overreaching
> >to say: Add 7 wins
> >4. Bonderman matures and is more like the late-2004 Bonderman all season
> >long: Add 3 wins
> >5. Inge, playing every day at third, hits as many home runs as Munson did
> >last years, but doesn't hit .212 and holds down the position defensively
> >with skill: Add 2 wins
> >6. Pena hits consistently: Add 3 wins
> >7. Martinez is the steady utility infielder we didn't really have all
last
> >year: Add 1 win
> >8. Robertson doesn't get tired in the second half: Add 1 win
> >9. Johnson doesn't have a blister: Add 1 win
> >10. Infante plays all year and continues to improve: Add 1 win
> >11. Sanchez doesn't hit .322 again because people figure out how to stop
the
> >drag bunts, and he still doesn't walk, prompting a change at leadoff in
> >midseason. We never quite figure it out: Subtract 2 wins.
> >12. Ledezma has major ups and downs in the rotation: Subtract 1 win (why
not
> >more? he's not Nate Cornejo!)
> >
> >Final tally: 98-64
> >
> >1MF
> >
>
> LOL! Be sure you put that number in Chris' predictions page so we can
> see how close (or far) you came next October.
>
> Regards,
>
> ////
> (o o)
> -oOO--(_)--OOo-
>
>
> "A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.
> Of course, so does falling down a flight of stairs."
> -- Richard Doty
> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
>
> Remove nospam to email me.
>
> Steve
 >> Stay informed about: How good can we be? 

SkippyPB wrote:

> LOL! Be sure you put that number in Chris' predictions page so we can
> see how close (or far) you came next October.
>
> Regards,

Prediction page?

I'm new here...can I play?

--
Dan


Brother, brother, brother
There's far too many of you dying
 >> Stay informed about: How good can we be? 

On Sat, 12 Feb 2005 09:58:05 -0500, "One Man's Fool"
wrote:

>Final tally: 98-64
>
>1MF

OMF is going to draw lots of snickers, but he's not too deep in left
on this one. I'm guessing 88 wins but there's potential for more...

Plug in Ordonez for Higgy, plug in D-Y for a full season, put a
steadily improving Monroe in left, subtract Munson and Vina, get a
breakout from Pena, get a repeat from Inge and Infante, and you are
looking at a nice lineup that could add 100 runs over last year. That
would be 927 runs, which is Red Sox territory for offense.

Pitching? Plug in Ledezma for Knotts, figure in some improvement from
Bonderman and Johnson. Percival should be good for around 3.20 ERA,
Walker about the same, plus Urbina/Farnsworth adding depth to the
bullpen. Also you'll have Knotts in long relief, where he performs
best ...

Defense? Still issues in the outfield, but you get Infante and Inge
full time, and both should be improved over last year. And no Munson
booting everything at third ... So if all falls into place this team
could shave 100 runs off what they gave up last year. That would also
be similar to last year's Red Sox.

Will it happen? You will probably need very few injuries, and avoid
too much regression by Pudge, Guillen, and Sanchez over last year's
huge numbers. If they go off and win 95 this year, I won't be
surprised one bit ...

Anway, that's the barometer I'm going to use this year, add 100 runs
scored and subtract 100 runs against. And seeing how they added
almost 300 runs scored last year, I think the first number is
feasible. That second number will be the real key ...

PLAY BALL !!!!
 >> Stay informed about: How good can we be? 

On Sat, 12 Feb 2005 11:46:15 -0500, "One Man's Fool"
enlightened us:

>Feel free to try your own logical analysis, although it's always easier to
>just make snarky remarks.
>
>1MF
>

Once we actually know what the team is going to look like after spring
training, I will be doing just that sort of thing. Trying to do it
now is just trying to feed a fantasy. I prefer realism.


>"SkippyPB" wrote in message
>
>> On Sat, 12 Feb 2005 09:58:05 -0500, "One Man's Fool"
>> enlightened us:
>>
>> >This kind of analysis makes no accounting for injuries, because they
>can't
>> >be predicted, but here's how I see it:
>> >
>> >1. Maggs replacing Higginson in right field and taking over cleanup: Add
>8
>> >wins
>> >2. Dmitri (presumably) does not miss two months on the DL: Add 2 wins
>> >3. Percival, Farnsworth and a healthy Rodney shore up a bullpen in which
>> >Urbina returns in a better role for him and Walker is Walker. We had
>> >something like 23 blown saves last year, so I don't think it's
>overreaching
>> >to say: Add 7 wins
>> >4. Bonderman matures and is more like the late-2004 Bonderman all season
>> >long: Add 3 wins
>> >5. Inge, playing every day at third, hits as many home runs as Munson did
>> >last years, but doesn't hit .212 and holds down the position defensively
>> >with skill: Add 2 wins
>> >6. Pena hits consistently: Add 3 wins
>> >7. Martinez is the steady utility infielder we didn't really have all
>last
>> >year: Add 1 win
>> >8. Robertson doesn't get tired in the second half: Add 1 win
>> >9. Johnson doesn't have a blister: Add 1 win
>> >10. Infante plays all year and continues to improve: Add 1 win
>> >11. Sanchez doesn't hit .322 again because people figure out how to stop
>the
>> >drag bunts, and he still doesn't walk, prompting a change at leadoff in
>> >midseason. We never quite figure it out: Subtract 2 wins.
>> >12. Ledezma has major ups and downs in the rotation: Subtract 1 win (why
>not
>> >more? he's not Nate Cornejo!)
>> >
>> >Final tally: 98-64
>> >
>> >1MF
>> >
>>
>> LOL! Be sure you put that number in Chris' predictions page so we can
>> see how close (or far) you came next October.
>>

Regards,

>

////
(o o)
-oOO--(_)--OOo-


"A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.
Of course, so does falling down a flight of stairs."
-- Richard Doty
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Remove nospam to email me.

Steve
 >> Stay informed about: How good can we be? 

"Da Yooper" wrote in message

> On Sat, 12 Feb 2005 09:58:05 -0500, "One Man's Fool"
> wrote:
>
> >Final tally: 98-64
> >
> >1MF
>
> OMF is going to draw lots of snickers, but he's not too deep in left
> on this one. I'm guessing 88 wins but there's potential for more...
>

It's too soon for me to come up with a final figure because I still think a
lot of Tiger hitters overachieved last year (Guillen, Rodriguez, Infante,
Inge, Monroe, Sanchez, probably White, possibly Thames), and we honestly
don't know whether Ordonez is going to be healthy this year, much less very
productive.

But their starting pitching is still not very good: Bonderman should without
a doubt be much improved and an ace-in-the-making, but Maroth and Robertson
are not destined to be as good as they were last year, let alone better;
Ledezma is not a lock to get better (although I do like his chances); Knotts
could go either way at this point; and Johnson may be actually worse, maybe
much so.

And in the bullpen, I like Jamie Walker now and Colby Lewis certainly has
promise, but Farnsworth is a big question mark, we'd have to get really
lucky to get a good year out of Percival, and who knows who else is even
going to be on the roster come April?

At this early stage, I could see the Tigers winning in the 70's again, maybe
breaking 80 by getting a few breaks, but they could easily win in the 60's
as well.

I won't have a more solid prediction until the ASBDT Predictions contest
comes around again.
 >> Stay informed about: How good can we be?