jay bruce

On May 18, 6:31 pm, "David Short"
<David.No.Sh... DeleteThis @Spam.Wright.Please.Edu> wrote:

>
> At one time Kearns was just a touch below where Jay Bruce is right now.
> Sometimes things just don't work out.

I don't see it. He had a good year at 20 in A ball. He held his
own but was nothing special at AA at 21. He had a fine rookie
season at 22 but it was so much better than anything he'd
ever done that I'd have given him only about a 20% chance
of holding that level (and that's before Dan opened my eyes
to the issue of BABIP) Put simply, a guy who slugs .429 in AA
is a lousy bet to slug substantially more in the majors.

(Yeah injuries can alter the equations. For a counter to my
argument check out Bobby Bonilla's minor league career)

> By all accounts Kearns seems to have stubborned away a real career.

Dunno if I agree. Aside from this year and 2002 he's turned in a
pretty consistent level of play. And both sets of results are a
product of flukish looking success rates on balls in play.

This is something that Dan touched on in his comment on
Bruce's MLE. Between 2003 and 2007 Kearns hit between
..324 and .354 on balls in play. In 2002 he hit .402.
Probably not a sustainable level of play. This year
he's hitting .232 on balls in play. That's plain bad luck.
(Of a type that's a proven career killer, but it's got
nothing to do with being stubborn). With the real issue being
his 5-40 on flyballs (he's a career .246 hitter on fly balls)

He's also had an unusual number of line drives caught this
year. He's "only" hitting .600 and he's a career .736 hitter
on line drives (This isn't unusual. Everybody's numbers are
stunning on line drives)

He's disappointing in the sense that he showed he was good
enough to play fairly young and never improved.

This is in fact the single most common career arc. Yes it's
true that most great players establish themselves young
and build on that, but it doesn't follow that establishing
yourself young means you can expect greatness.
 >> Stay informed about: jay bruce 

On Mon, 19 May 2008 03:47:07 -0700 (PDT), Ron Johnson
<johnson.TakeThisOut@ccrs.nrcan.gc.ca> wrote:

>On May 18, 6:31 pm, "David Short"
><David.No.Sh....TakeThisOut@Spam.Wright.Please.Edu> wrote:
>
>>
>> At one time Kearns was just a touch below where Jay Bruce is right now.
>> Sometimes things just don't work out.
>
>I don't see it. He had a good year at 20 in A ball. He held his
>own but was nothing special at AA at 21. He had a fine rookie
>season at 22 but it was so much better than anything he'd
>ever done that I'd have given him only about a 20% chance
>of holding that level (and that's before Dan opened my eyes
>to the issue of BABIP) Put simply, a guy who slugs .429 in AA
>is a lousy bet to slug substantially more in the majors.
>
>(Yeah injuries can alter the equations. For a counter to my
>argument check out Bobby Bonilla's minor league career)
>
>> By all accounts Kearns seems to have stubborned away a real career.
>
>Dunno if I agree. Aside from this year and 2002 he's turned in a
>pretty consistent level of play. And both sets of results are a
>product of flukish looking success rates on balls in play.
>
>This is something that Dan touched on in his comment on
>Bruce's MLE. Between 2003 and 2007 Kearns hit between
>.324 and .354 on balls in play. In 2002 he hit .402.
>Probably not a sustainable level of play. This year
>he's hitting .232 on balls in play. That's plain bad luck.
>(Of a type that's a proven career killer, but it's got
>nothing to do with being stubborn). With the real issue being
>his 5-40 on flyballs (he's a career .246 hitter on fly balls)
>
>He's also had an unusual number of line drives caught this
>year. He's "only" hitting .600 and he's a career .736 hitter
>on line drives (This isn't unusual. Everybody's numbers are
>stunning on line drives)
>
>He's disappointing in the sense that he showed he was good
>enough to play fairly young and never improved.
>
>This is in fact the single most common career arc. Yes it's
>true that most great players establish themselves young
>and build on that, but it doesn't follow that establishing
>yourself young means you can expect greatness.

You could say pretty much the same about Adam Dunn (he showed he was
good enough to play fairly young and never improved). It's just that
Dunn was good to begin with.

******************************************************************
Kevin McClave

"To justify himself, each relies on
the other's crime." ~Albert Camus
******************************************************************
 >> Stay informed about: jay bruce 

"Kevin McClave" <kmcclaveSPAM DIES.TakeThisOut@HEREtwcny.rr.com> wrote in message
news:7hu134dnfe17batgdkkap3kvpeijhr3rtu@4ax.com...
> On Sun, 18 May 2008 20:34:05 -0400, "David Short"
> <David.No.Short.TakeThisOut@Spam.Wright.Please.Edu> wrote:
>
>>"RJA" <rja.TakeThisOut@nospam.cinci.rr.com> wrote in message
>>news:4830c5bf$0$12884$4c368faf@roadrunner.com...
>>> "David Short" <David.No.Short.TakeThisOut@Spam.Wright.Please.Edu> wrote in message
>>> news:g0qaoi$p1t$1@posting.glorb.com...
>>>> "RJA" <rja.TakeThisOut@nospam.cinci.rr.com> wrote in message
>>>> news:482f7525$0$5699$4c368faf@roadrunner.com...
>>>>> Doc Rogers, previously assistant GM to Leather Pants does the post
>>>>> game
>>>>> talk show now, and a lot of the things that he says are very
>>>>> interesting.
>>>>> He has pretty much said that the Reds, even when they didn't have any
>>>>> talent in the minors, did a lot of "marketing" which led us to believe
>>>>> that they did. All those pitchers that never became
>>>>> anything..........Howington, Aramboles, Gruler, and then your position
>>>>> players like Larson, Kearns (who now we know was just marketing), etc.
>>>>
>>>> At one time Kearns was just a touch below where Jay Bruce is right now.
>>>> Sometimes things just don't work out.
>>>
>>> Are you sure about that? Looking at his numbers, he did very well in
>>> A-ball, but that's about it before being called up in 2002. Pretty
>>> consistent with that "marketing" thing.
>>
>>Kearns got hurt in 01. I know everybody in Dayton thought the reason Dunn
>>was called up before Austin was the injury. I know there are other folks
>>who
>>feel differently. When Adam came up and people noted on his success, he
>>regularly gave credit to Kearns as the better player.
>
> And he was wrong.

If everyone in Dayton thought that, then I'd have to question their logic.
Dunn was murdering the ball at all levels of minor league baseball. Kearns
had one good year in A-Ball. To think that Kearns was better or more
deserving than Dunn simply indicates that nobody looked at the stats. Here
they are:

http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=4199
 >> Stay informed about: jay bruce 

"RJA" <rja DeleteThis @nospam.cinci.rr.com> wrote in message
> "Kevin McClave" <kmcclaveSPAM DIES DeleteThis @HEREtwcny.rr.com> wrote in message
>> On Sun, 18 May 2008 20:34:05 -0400, "David Short"
>>>"RJA" <rja DeleteThis @nospam.cinci.rr.com> wrote in message
>>>> "David Short" <David.No.Short DeleteThis @Spam.Wright.Please.Edu> wrote in message
>>>>> "RJA" <rja DeleteThis @nospam.cinci.rr.com> wrote in message
>>>>>> players like Kearns (who now we know was just marketing), etc.
>>>>>
>>>>> At one time Kearns was just a touch below where Jay Bruce is right
>>>>> now.
>>>>> Sometimes things just don't work out.
>>>>
>>>> Are you sure about that? Looking at his numbers, he did very well in
>>>> A-ball, but that's about it before being called up in 2002. Pretty
>>>> consistent with that "marketing" thing.
>>>
>>>Kearns got hurt in 01. I know everybody in Dayton thought the reason Dunn
>>>was called up before Austin was the injury. I know there are other folks
>>>who
>>>feel differently. When Adam came up and people noted on his success, he
>>>regularly gave credit to Kearns as the better player.
>>
>> And he was wrong.
>
> If everyone in Dayton thought that, then I'd have to question their logic.

Ask around town, Rich. Who had the best season as a dragon. I'll bet at
least half of the folks who answer the question coherently will tell you
Kearns. He had a magical, unworldly year.

> Dunn was murdering the ball at all levels of minor league baseball.
> Kearns had one good year in A-Ball. To think that Kearns was better or
> more deserving than Dunn simply indicates that nobody looked at the stats.
> Here they are:
>
> http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=4199

Again, Kearns got hurt in 01. You've got three years where they shared
outfield slots.
Kearns was better in Billings. Dunn was better in Rockford. Kearns was
unworldly good in Dayton. As good as Jay Bruce was here? Kearns had another
100 points of OPS. The next year, Kearns got hurt and Dunn was called up.

Just for fun I took down the 01 Baseball Prospectus and looked at the
prospect rankings.
Kearns and Dunn are there at 24 and 25 with Dunn in front of Kearns. So, I
guess I'll just drop my point.


Still it's an interesting list.
The top 40 ranked prospects in baseball in 01?
Among the honorable mentions was out own Matt Belisle, right behind Josh
Beckett, but well in front of a young Carlos Zambrano. Of course the
honorable mentions were arranged alphabetically.
Jack Cust and Marcus Giles are there. Craig Wilson makes an appearance at
32. At 27 is our old second baseman D'Angelo. Sabathia appears at 18. Carlos
Pena is there at 16. Nick Johnson at 13. Antonio Perez was the big haul from
the Junior deal and he shows up as a "19" year old at #11. Jimmy Rollins is
at #9. Icharo is at #8.. Roy Oswalt is at #5. Ben Sheets is at #4.

At #1? Ryan Anderson who became an executive chef after several arm
surgeries.

A couple of interesting names I've left off.

At #3? Our good friend in centerfield, Cory Patterson.
Way down at #14? Pheenom Josh Hamilton (who like Jay Bruce was judged as
"not a centerfielder")

Finally, yes he is in there, Below D'Angelo, but ahead of Craig Wilson
Albert Pujols made the list at 28.

Judging prospects is an iffy buisness.

dfs
 >> Stay informed about: jay bruce 

On Tue, 20 May 2008 00:11:49 -0400, "David Short"
<David.NO.Short DeleteThis @Wright.SPAM.Edu.PLEASE> wrote:

>"RJA" <rja DeleteThis @nospam.cinci.rr.com> wrote in message
>> "Kevin McClave" <kmcclaveSPAM DIES DeleteThis @HEREtwcny.rr.com> wrote in message
>>> On Sun, 18 May 2008 20:34:05 -0400, "David Short"
>>>>"RJA" <rja DeleteThis @nospam.cinci.rr.com> wrote in message
>>>>> "David Short" <David.No.Short DeleteThis @Spam.Wright.Please.Edu> wrote in message
>>>>>> "RJA" <rja DeleteThis @nospam.cinci.rr.com> wrote in message
>>>>>>> players like Kearns (who now we know was just marketing), etc.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> At one time Kearns was just a touch below where Jay Bruce is right
>>>>>> now.
>>>>>> Sometimes things just don't work out.
>>>>>
>>>>> Are you sure about that? Looking at his numbers, he did very well in
>>>>> A-ball, but that's about it before being called up in 2002. Pretty
>>>>> consistent with that "marketing" thing.
>>>>
>>>>Kearns got hurt in 01. I know everybody in Dayton thought the reason Dunn
>>>>was called up before Austin was the injury. I know there are other folks
>>>>who
>>>>feel differently. When Adam came up and people noted on his success, he
>>>>regularly gave credit to Kearns as the better player.
>>>
>>> And he was wrong.
>>
>> If everyone in Dayton thought that, then I'd have to question their logic.
>
>Ask around town, Rich. Who had the best season as a dragon. I'll bet at
>least half of the folks who answer the question coherently will tell you
>Kearns. He had a magical, unworldly year.
>
>> Dunn was murdering the ball at all levels of minor league baseball.
>> Kearns had one good year in A-Ball. To think that Kearns was better or
>> more deserving than Dunn simply indicates that nobody looked at the stats.
>> Here they are:
>>
>> http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=4199
>
>Again, Kearns got hurt in 01. You've got three years where they shared
>outfield slots.
>Kearns was better in Billings. Dunn was better in Rockford. Kearns was
>unworldly good in Dayton. As good as Jay Bruce was here? Kearns had another
>100 points of OPS. The next year, Kearns got hurt and Dunn was called up.
>
>Just for fun I took down the 01 Baseball Prospectus and looked at the
>prospect rankings.
>Kearns and Dunn are there at 24 and 25 with Dunn in front of Kearns. So, I
>guess I'll just drop my point.

Regardless of what coulda, shoulda, woulda happened if Austin hadn't
been injured, the point should be made that Dunn earned every minute of
Major League time when he was called up in 2001. His minor league season
that year was amazing.

********************************************************************
Kevin McClave

"Courage, the footstool of the Virtues, upon
which they stand." ~Robert Louis Stevenson
********************************************************************
 >> Stay informed about: jay bruce 

"David Short" <David.NO.Short.DeleteThis@Wright.SPAM.Edu.PLEASE> wrote in message
news:g0tiue$run$1@posting.glorb.com...
> "RJA" <rja.DeleteThis@nospam.cinci.rr.com> wrote in message
>> "Kevin McClave" <kmcclaveSPAM DIES.DeleteThis@HEREtwcny.rr.com> wrote in message
>>> On Sun, 18 May 2008 20:34:05 -0400, "David Short"
>>>>"RJA" <rja.DeleteThis@nospam.cinci.rr.com> wrote in message
>>>>> "David Short" <David.No.Short.DeleteThis@Spam.Wright.Please.Edu> wrote in message
>>>>>> "RJA" <rja.DeleteThis@nospam.cinci.rr.com> wrote in message
>>>>>>> players like Kearns (who now we know was just marketing), etc.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> At one time Kearns was just a touch below where Jay Bruce is right
>>>>>> now.
>>>>>> Sometimes things just don't work out.
>>>>>
>>>>> Are you sure about that? Looking at his numbers, he did very well in
>>>>> A-ball, but that's about it before being called up in 2002. Pretty
>>>>> consistent with that "marketing" thing.
>>>>
>>>>Kearns got hurt in 01. I know everybody in Dayton thought the reason
>>>>Dunn
>>>>was called up before Austin was the injury. I know there are other folks
>>>>who
>>>>feel differently. When Adam came up and people noted on his success, he
>>>>regularly gave credit to Kearns as the better player.
>>>
>>> And he was wrong.
>>
>> If everyone in Dayton thought that, then I'd have to question their
>> logic.
>
> Ask around town, Rich. Who had the best season as a dragon. I'll bet at
> least half of the folks who answer the question coherently will tell you
> Kearns. He had a magical, unworldly year.

I think I cited his one good year in A-ball, I just don't think it should be
a surprise that the guy with the better overall minor league numbers would
have been called up first, unless those who were surprised weren't looking
at the big picture.

>> Dunn was murdering the ball at all levels of minor league baseball.
>> Kearns had one good year in A-Ball. To think that Kearns was better or
>> more deserving than Dunn simply indicates that nobody looked at the
>> stats.
>> Here they are:
>>
>> http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=4199
>
> Again, Kearns got hurt in 01. You've got three years where they shared
> outfield slots.
> Kearns was better in Billings. Dunn was better in Rockford. Kearns was
> unworldly good in Dayton. As good as Jay Bruce was here? Kearns had
> another
> 100 points of OPS. The next year, Kearns got hurt and Dunn was called up.
>
> Just for fun I took down the 01 Baseball Prospectus and looked at the
> prospect rankings.
> Kearns and Dunn are there at 24 and 25 with Dunn in front of Kearns. So, I
> guess I'll just drop my point.

Where they're ranked isn't that big of a deal to me. Homer Bailey was also
rated as the Reds #1 pitching prospect. That's not turning out to be the
case. I'm just looking at the numbers and they don't seem to indicate that
Kearns was a better player than Dunn, especially when you consider what they
did at higher levels in the minors. It looks more to me like Dunn was way
ready and Kearns was rushed.
 >> Stay informed about: jay bruce 

"Kevin McClave" <kmcclaveSPAM DIES RemoveThis @HEREtwcny.rr.com> wrote in message
news:9j8534p5dso1s74sapgsb835hj3nj95ano@4ax.com...
> On Tue, 20 May 2008 00:11:49 -0400, "David Short"
> <David.NO.Short RemoveThis @Wright.SPAM.Edu.PLEASE> wrote:
>
>>"RJA" <rja RemoveThis @nospam.cinci.rr.com> wrote in message
>>> "Kevin McClave" <kmcclaveSPAM DIES RemoveThis @HEREtwcny.rr.com> wrote in message
>>>> On Sun, 18 May 2008 20:34:05 -0400, "David Short"
>>>>>"RJA" <rja RemoveThis @nospam.cinci.rr.com> wrote in message
>>>>>> "David Short" <David.No.Short RemoveThis @Spam.Wright.Please.Edu> wrote in
>>>>>> message
>>>>>>> "RJA" <rja RemoveThis @nospam.cinci.rr.com> wrote in message
>>>>>>>> players like Kearns (who now we know was just marketing), etc.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> At one time Kearns was just a touch below where Jay Bruce is right
>>>>>>> now.
>>>>>>> Sometimes things just don't work out.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Are you sure about that? Looking at his numbers, he did very well in
>>>>>> A-ball, but that's about it before being called up in 2002. Pretty
>>>>>> consistent with that "marketing" thing.
>>>>>
>>>>>Kearns got hurt in 01. I know everybody in Dayton thought the reason
>>>>>Dunn
>>>>>was called up before Austin was the injury. I know there are other
>>>>>folks
>>>>>who
>>>>>feel differently. When Adam came up and people noted on his success, he
>>>>>regularly gave credit to Kearns as the better player.
>>>>
>>>> And he was wrong.
>>>
>>> If everyone in Dayton thought that, then I'd have to question their
>>> logic.
>>
>>Ask around town, Rich. Who had the best season as a dragon. I'll bet at
>>least half of the folks who answer the question coherently will tell you
>>Kearns. He had a magical, unworldly year.
>>
>>> Dunn was murdering the ball at all levels of minor league baseball.
>>> Kearns had one good year in A-Ball. To think that Kearns was better or
>>> more deserving than Dunn simply indicates that nobody looked at the
>>> stats.
>>> Here they are:
>>>
>>> http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=4199
>>
>>Again, Kearns got hurt in 01. You've got three years where they shared
>>outfield slots.
>>Kearns was better in Billings. Dunn was better in Rockford. Kearns was
>>unworldly good in Dayton. As good as Jay Bruce was here? Kearns had
>>another
>>100 points of OPS. The next year, Kearns got hurt and Dunn was called up.
>>
>>Just for fun I took down the 01 Baseball Prospectus and looked at the
>>prospect rankings.
>>Kearns and Dunn are there at 24 and 25 with Dunn in front of Kearns. So, I
>>guess I'll just drop my point.
>
> Regardless of what coulda, shoulda, woulda happened if Austin hadn't
> been injured, the point should be made that Dunn earned every minute of
> Major League time when he was called up in 2001. His minor league season
> that year was amazing.

....while Kearns had one good year in Dayton and 45 at bats at double A.
Leather pants couldn't wait any longer to bring him up with his 5-tools.
 >> Stay informed about: jay bruce 

On May 20, 12:11 am, "David Short"
<David.NO.Sh....TakeThisOut@Wright.SPAM.Edu.PLEASE> wrote:
>
> Ask around town, Rich. Who had the best season as a dragon. I'll bet at
> least half of the folks who answer the question coherently will tell you
> Kearns. He had a magical, unworldly year.

If Kearns was unworldly what do you call Tom Brunansky's 1981?

20 years old at AAA .332/.430/.633

Yeah, old PCL but still not numbers you see from every 20 year old.
 >> Stay informed about: jay bruce 

On Tue, 20 May 2008 19:46:12 -0400, "RJA" <rja.TakeThisOut@nospam.cinci.rr.com>
wrote:

>...while Kearns had one good year in Dayton and 45 at bats at double A.
>Leather pants couldn't wait any longer to bring him up with his 5-tools.

I'm certainly no fan of Bowden either, and you guys know that, but
Kearns hit .315 in 107 games that year. The rest of the 2002 Reds
outfielders were Dunn (LF, played in 158 games), Juan Encarnacion (CF,
played in 83 games), Reggie Taylor (135 games as part-time LH hitter
in a lineup that already had Dunn, Casey, Walker hitting from the left
side), Griffey (only played 70 games due to injury), Jose Guillen (hit
..248 in 31 games), Ruben Mateo (20 Ks in 86 AB), Brady Clark (.152),
and Wily Mo (.222).

What was Bowden supposed to do, dig up Ted Kluszewski?

JK
 >> Stay informed about: jay bruce 

"John Kasupski" <kc2hmz RemoveThis @verizon.net> wrote in message
news:fs4934laof2fegpkd4d452hau3sghenagj@4ax.com...
> On Tue, 20 May 2008 19:46:12 -0400, "RJA" <rja RemoveThis @nospam.cinci.rr.com>
> wrote:
>
>>...while Kearns had one good year in Dayton and 45 at bats at double A.
>>Leather pants couldn't wait any longer to bring him up with his 5-tools.
>
> I'm certainly no fan of Bowden either, and you guys know that, but
> Kearns hit .315 in 107 games that year. The rest of the 2002 Reds
> outfielders were Dunn (LF, played in 158 games), Juan Encarnacion (CF,
> played in 83 games), Reggie Taylor (135 games as part-time LH hitter
> in a lineup that already had Dunn, Casey, Walker hitting from the left
> side), Griffey (only played 70 games due to injury), Jose Guillen (hit
> .248 in 31 games), Ruben Mateo (20 Ks in 86 AB), Brady Clark (.152),
> and Wily Mo (.222).

Kearns had a promising rookie year, probably because he saw a lot of nice
straight pitches over the plate. Maybe the scouts got to him, but he has
pretty much stunk since June of 03. He had half of a good year in 2006. He
was sent down at one point for getting too fat. Just not a hard worker.
 >> Stay informed about: jay bruce