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So how badly did Maddon screw the pooch tonight?

 
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brink

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Since: Sep 10, 2007
Posts: 299



(Msg. 1) Posted: Thu Oct 16, 2008 11:35 pm
Post subject: So how badly did Maddon screw the pooch tonight?
Archived from groups: alt>sports>baseball>mn-twins (more info?)

Actually, I only say that half-earnestly... let's face it, when your moves
pan out, you look like a genius... when your bullpen yaks up a 7-0
seventh-inning lead, it's almost impossible to not look like an idiot.
That's the nature of the game.

That said...

Why, exactly, did he take Kazmir -- who was absolutely cruising -- out after
6 IP tonight? From what I've seen from Maddon, he's not a conventional
thinker WRT bullpen use. He seems especially likely to ride a hot hand and
despite a 7-0 lead I'd think he'd been around baseball enough to know that
the 7th inning is far too early to go playing Dial-A-Gopherballer with your
bullpen.

Bullpen moves always carry the inherent risk of backfiring because in any
given pen on any given night, there's usually at least one guy who has no
business being on the mound that night. I'd say Balfour was that guy for
Tampa. And that risk is why moves should always be dictated by need in a
game like this -- with a late lead, you step on their necks, slit their
throats, and do everything in your power to squeeze the life from your
opponent. I can't quite see the upside to taking Kazmir out before he'd
shown the move needed to be made.

But that was obviously fluky for Balfour and unfortunate for the Rays. The
problem was what it did to the rest of the pen since the next guy in line
was Wheeler, who, while good this year, was far from great and
Twins fans know just how capable he is of absolutely coughing up a hairball
in a high leverage situation.

That one's gotta sting badly for Tampa. OTOH, now they have 2 chances, with
favorable pitching matchups, to close it out in front of the home crowd. Do
so and everyone will forget about the nightmare Game 5.

brink
- speaking of people feeling like idiots, how do all those Red Sox "fans"
who left in the top of the 7th inning feel right about now?

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AnnE

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Since: Oct 29, 2006
Posts: 349



(Msg. 2) Posted: Fri Oct 17, 2008 3:51 pm
Post subject: Re: So how badly did Maddon screw the pooch tonight? [Login to view extended thread Info.]
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"brink" wrote in message

> Actually, I only say that half-earnestly... let's face it, when your
> moves
> pan out, you look like a genius... when your bullpen yaks up a 7-0
> seventh-inning lead, it's almost impossible to not look like an idiot.
> That's the nature of the game.
>
> That said...
>
> Why, exactly, did he take Kazmir -- who was absolutely cruising -- out
> after
> 6 IP tonight? From what I've seen from Maddon, he's not a
> conventional
> thinker WRT bullpen use. He seems especially likely to ride a hot
> hand and
> despite a 7-0 lead I'd think he'd been around baseball enough to know
> that
> the 7th inning is far too early to go playing Dial-A-Gopherballer with
> your
> bullpen.
>
> Bullpen moves always carry the inherent risk of backfiring because in
> any
> given pen on any given night, there's usually at least one guy who has
> no
> business being on the mound that night. I'd say Balfour was that guy
> for
> Tampa. And that risk is why moves should always be dictated by need
> in a
> game like this -- with a late lead, you step on their necks, slit
> their
> throats, and do everything in your power to squeeze the life from your
> opponent. I can't quite see the upside to taking Kazmir out before
> he'd
> shown the move needed to be made.
>
> But that was obviously fluky for Balfour and unfortunate for the Rays.
> The
> problem was what it did to the rest of the pen since the next guy in
> line
> was Wheeler, who, while good this year, was far from great and
> Twins fans know just how capable he is of absolutely coughing up a
> hairball
> in a high leverage situation.
>
> That one's gotta sting badly for Tampa. OTOH, now they have 2
> chances, with
> favorable pitching matchups, to close it out in front of the home
> crowd. Do
> so and everyone will forget about the nightmare Game 5.
>
> brink
> - speaking of people feeling like idiots, how do all those Red Sox
> "fans" who left in the top of the 7th inning feel right about now?
Oh come on....it's MUCH MORE fun to win at home!

hang in there AnnE

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Since: Jul 23, 2008
Posts: 56



(Msg. 3) Posted: Fri Oct 17, 2008 5:32 pm
Post subject: Re: So how badly did Maddon screw the pooch tonight? [Login to view extended thread Info.]
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"brink" wrote in message

> Actually, I only say that half-earnestly... let's face it, when your
> moves
> pan out, you look like a genius... when your bullpen yaks up a 7-0
> seventh-inning lead, it's almost impossible to not look like an idiot.
> That's the nature of the game.
>
> That said...
>
> Why, exactly, did he take Kazmir -- who was absolutely cruising -- out
> after
> 6 IP tonight? From what I've seen from Maddon, he's not a conventional
> thinker WRT bullpen use. He seems especially likely to ride a hot hand
> and
> despite a 7-0 lead I'd think he'd been around baseball enough to know that
> the 7th inning is far too early to go playing Dial-A-Gopherballer with
> your
> bullpen.
>
> Bullpen moves always carry the inherent risk of backfiring because in any
> given pen on any given night, there's usually at least one guy who has no
> business being on the mound that night. I'd say Balfour was that guy for
> Tampa. And that risk is why moves should always be dictated by need in a
> game like this -- with a late lead, you step on their necks, slit their
> throats, and do everything in your power to squeeze the life from your
> opponent. I can't quite see the upside to taking Kazmir out before he'd
> shown the move needed to be made.
>
> But that was obviously fluky for Balfour and unfortunate for the Rays.
> The
> problem was what it did to the rest of the pen since the next guy in line
> was Wheeler, who, while good this year, was far from great and
> Twins fans know just how capable he is of absolutely coughing up a
> hairball
> in a high leverage situation.
>
> That one's gotta sting badly for Tampa. OTOH, now they have 2 chances,
> with
> favorable pitching matchups, to close it out in front of the home crowd.
> Do
> so and everyone will forget about the nightmare Game 5.
>
> brink
> - speaking of people feeling like idiots, how do all those Red Sox "fans"
> who left in the top of the 7th inning feel right about now?

Wow. You're right. Maddon is a terrible manager. He ruined the Rays!



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Corey

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Since: Feb 04, 2008
Posts: 42



(Msg. 4) Posted: Fri Oct 17, 2008 6:20 pm
Post subject: Re: So how badly did Maddon screw the pooch tonight? [Login to view extended thread Info.]
Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)

On Oct 16, 11:35 pm, "brink" wrote:
> Actually, I only say that half-earnestly...  let's face it, when your moves
> pan out, you look like a genius...  when your bullpen yaks up a 7-0
> seventh-inning lead, it's almost impossible to not look like an idiot.
> That's the nature of the game.
>
> That said...
>
> Why, exactly, did he take Kazmir -- who was absolutely cruising -- out after
> 6 IP tonight?  From what I've seen from Maddon, he's not a conventional
> thinker WRT bullpen use.  He seems especially likely to ride a hot hand and
> despite a 7-0 lead I'd think he'd been around baseball enough to know that
> the 7th inning is far too early to go playing Dial-A-Gopherballer with your
> bullpen.
>
> Bullpen moves always carry the inherent risk of backfiring because in any
> given pen on any given night, there's usually at least one guy who has no
> business being on the mound that night.  I'd say Balfour was that guy for
> Tampa.  And that risk is why moves should always be dictated by need in a
> game like this -- with a late lead, you step on their necks, slit their
> throats, and do everything in your power to squeeze the life from your
> opponent.  I can't quite see the upside to taking Kazmir out before he'd
> shown the move needed to be made.
>
> But that was obviously fluky for Balfour and unfortunate for the Rays.  The
> problem was what it did to the rest of the pen since the next guy in line
> was Wheeler, who, while good this year, was far from great and
> Twins fans know just how capable he is of absolutely coughing up a hairball
> in a high leverage situation.
>
> That one's gotta sting badly for Tampa.  OTOH, now they have 2 chances, with
> favorable pitching matchups, to close it out in front of the home crowd.  Do
> so and everyone will forget about the nightmare Game 5.
>
> brink
>  - speaking of people feeling like idiots, how do all those Red Sox "fans"
> who left in the top of the 7th inning feel right about now?

Ah, you're just making up all this stuff after the fact. Despite
going only 6 innings Kazmir had thrown 111 pitches already (which
probably would be the limit for most aces, especially with such a
lead, and Kazmir having a history of various injuries), and like
Balfour and Wheeler were known to be pipe bomb relievers -- they were
good all season long. Like anybody predicted those two to combine to
blow a 7-run lead. Sometimes @#$% happens, like we always see with
the Twins. It's how the Rays respond this next game (or two) that
will make or break them this postseason.
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Since: Jul 23, 2008
Posts: 56



(Msg. 5) Posted: Sat Oct 18, 2008 7:30 am
Post subject: Re: So how badly did Maddon screw the pooch tonight? [Login to view extended thread Info.]
Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)

"Ah, you're just making up all this stuff after the fact. Despite
going only 6 innings Kazmir had thrown 111 pitches already (which
probably would be the limit for most aces, especially with such a
lead, and Kazmir having a history of various injuries), and like
Balfour and Wheeler were known to be pipe bomb relievers -- they were
good all season long. Like anybody predicted those two to combine to
blow a 7-run lead. Sometimes @#$% happens, like we always see with
the Twins. It's how the Rays respond this next game (or two) that
will make or break them this postseason."



Your post makes way too much sense, Corey.
Please post elsewhere in the future.



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powrwrap

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Since: May 18, 2007
Posts: 571



(Msg. 6) Posted: Sat Oct 18, 2008 9:33 am
Post subject: Re: So how badly did Maddon screw the pooch tonight? [Login to view extended thread Info.]
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Balfour is no mystery. Fastball. Here it comes. Hit it. BTW, it seemed
that was the only pitch that Wheeler threw too.

While the Rays bullpen blew up in this game the story of this ALCS is
the meltdown of the Red Sox pitching. They are pathetic. B.J. Upton is
not a power hitter. Longoria is a pretty good hitter, but really, he's
playing over his head. Carlos Pena has power but he's not a .400
hitter, etc.

The Red Sox come from behind win is just a bump in the road for the
Rays. The only thing surprising about the Red Sox winning a game at
Fenway was that they came from so large of a deficit. The Rays took
two out of three in Boston. Now it's back to the dungeon in St.
Petersburg where the Rays will finally put the Sox down for good.
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Since: Jul 23, 2008
Posts: 56



(Msg. 7) Posted: Sat Oct 18, 2008 6:08 pm
Post subject: Re: So how badly did Maddon screw the pooch tonight? [Login to view extended thread Info.]
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>
> OK, I'll admit I had no idea his PC was that high. I sorta watched the
> game in the background and from what I saw I guessed he was in the 90s,
> not he 110s. Mea culpa.


So you admit that you're a dumbass?
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brink

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Since: Sep 10, 2007
Posts: 299



(Msg. 8) Posted: Sat Oct 18, 2008 10:26 pm
Post subject: Re: So how badly did Maddon screw the pooch tonight? [Login to view extended thread Info.]
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"powrwrap" wrote in message

> Balfour is no mystery. Fastball. Here it comes. Hit it. BTW, it seemed
> that was the only pitch that Wheeler threw too.
>
> While the Rays bullpen blew up in this game the story of this ALCS is
> the meltdown of the Red Sox pitching. They are pathetic. B.J. Upton is
> not a power hitter. Longoria is a pretty good hitter, but really, he's
> playing over his head. Carlos Pena has power but he's not a .400
> hitter, etc.
>
> The Red Sox come from behind win is just a bump in the road for the
> Rays. The only thing surprising about the Red Sox winning a game at
> Fenway was that they came from so large of a deficit. The Rays took
> two out of three in Boston. Now it's back to the dungeon in St.
> Petersburg where the Rays will finally put the Sox down for good.

I hope you're right, but it's looking more and more like this Boston team is
like Night of the Living Dead. It is unreal the lengths you have to go to
to kill these guys.

If they come back and win this series -- and despite all the "momentum"
swinging their way dramatically that is still a very big IF -- I'd say this
comeback would be even bigger than erasing the 3-0 series lead to the
Yankees in 2004. Again, expressed in totally rough odds, you'd expect a
team holding a 7-0 lead heading into the bottom of the 7th in an away game
to win that game 99 percent of the time. Actually, more than that, but
we'll give Boston some credit for having MLB's best offense and an
incredible HFA this season.

So 0.01 chance of winning that game multiplied by a 0.40 chance of winning
tonight's game times a 0.50 chance of winning tomorrow's game (yeah I posted
earlier that the Rays should be favored given the pitching matchups, but now
that I look at it Lester vs. Garza should favor Boston)... hitting the
trifecta on those three outcomes is roughly a 1 in 500 chance.

The comeback against NYY while incredible was far less improbable... even
if pessimistic about Boston's chances in each game -- say only a 40 percent
chance of winning each game -- pegs Boston's odds of that comeback at 1 in
40. Shoot, even if you tip the odds in NYY's favor in that Game 4 given
that the Yankees had Rivera on the mound in the bottom of the 9th with a
1-run lead and a chance to end the series -- call it a 5 percent chance
Boston had of winning the game at that point -- the odds of Boston coming
all the way back to win it were 1 in 300... still a lot better than their
chances in the 7th inning Thursday.

brink
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brink

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Since: Sep 10, 2007
Posts: 299



(Msg. 9) Posted: Sun Oct 19, 2008 9:49 pm
Post subject: Re: So how badly did Maddon screw the pooch tonight? [Login to view extended thread Info.]
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"brink" wrote in message

>
> "powrwrap" wrote in message
>
>> Balfour is no mystery. Fastball. Here it comes. Hit it. BTW, it seemed
>> that was the only pitch that Wheeler threw too.
>>
>> While the Rays bullpen blew up in this game the story of this ALCS is
>> the meltdown of the Red Sox pitching. They are pathetic. B.J. Upton is
>> not a power hitter. Longoria is a pretty good hitter, but really, he's
>> playing over his head. Carlos Pena has power but he's not a .400
>> hitter, etc.
>>
>> The Red Sox come from behind win is just a bump in the road for the
>> Rays. The only thing surprising about the Red Sox winning a game at
>> Fenway was that they came from so large of a deficit. The Rays took
>> two out of three in Boston. Now it's back to the dungeon in St.
>> Petersburg where the Rays will finally put the Sox down for good.
>
> I hope you're right, but it's looking more and more like this Boston team
> is
> like Night of the Living Dead. It is unreal the lengths you have to go to
> to kill these guys.
>
> If they come back and win this series -- and despite all the "momentum"
> swinging their way dramatically that is still a very big IF -- I'd say
> this
> comeback would be even bigger than erasing the 3-0 series lead to the
> Yankees in 2004. Again, expressed in totally rough odds, you'd expect a
> team holding a 7-0 lead heading into the bottom of the 7th in an away game
> to win that game 99 percent of the time. Actually, more than that, but
> we'll give Boston some credit for having MLB's best offense and an
> incredible HFA this season.
>
> So 0.01 chance of winning that game multiplied by a 0.40 chance of winning
> tonight's game times a 0.50 chance of winning tomorrow's game (yeah I
> posted
> earlier that the Rays should be favored given the pitching matchups, but
> now
> that I look at it Lester vs. Garza should favor Boston)... hitting the
> trifecta on those three outcomes is roughly a 1 in 500 chance.
>
> The comeback against NYY while incredible was far less improbable... even
> if pessimistic about Boston's chances in each game -- say only a 40
> percent
> chance of winning each game -- pegs Boston's odds of that comeback at 1 in
> 40. Shoot, even if you tip the odds in NYY's favor in that Game 4 given
> that the Yankees had Rivera on the mound in the bottom of the 9th with a
> 1-run lead and a chance to end the series -- call it a 5 percent chance
> Boston had of winning the game at that point -- the odds of Boston coming
> all the way back to win it were 1 in 300... still a lot better than their
> chances in the 7th inning Thursday.

Aaaaand so much for that... have to admit, I just had that nasty feeling TB
was doomed. I guess it's fitting that they continue to defy expectations.

Interesting note: the starters for each team were guys who could have
started for the Twins this year had they not made the trades they did!

That Garza kid can pitch, can't he?

brink
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Since: Jul 23, 2008
Posts: 56



(Msg. 10) Posted: Mon Oct 20, 2008 5:43 am
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"brink" wrote in message

>
> "brink" wrote in message
>
>>
>> "powrwrap" wrote in message
>>
>>> Balfour is no mystery. Fastball. Here it comes. Hit it. BTW, it seemed
>>> that was the only pitch that Wheeler threw too.
>>>
>>> While the Rays bullpen blew up in this game the story of this ALCS is
>>> the meltdown of the Red Sox pitching. They are pathetic. B.J. Upton is
>>> not a power hitter. Longoria is a pretty good hitter, but really, he's
>>> playing over his head. Carlos Pena has power but he's not a .400
>>> hitter, etc.
>>>
>>> The Red Sox come from behind win is just a bump in the road for the
>>> Rays. The only thing surprising about the Red Sox winning a game at
>>> Fenway was that they came from so large of a deficit. The Rays took
>>> two out of three in Boston. Now it's back to the dungeon in St.
>>> Petersburg where the Rays will finally put the Sox down for good.
>>
>> I hope you're right, but it's looking more and more like this Boston team
>> is
>> like Night of the Living Dead. It is unreal the lengths you have to go
>> to
>> to kill these guys.
>>
>> If they come back and win this series -- and despite all the "momentum"
>> swinging their way dramatically that is still a very big IF -- I'd say
>> this
>> comeback would be even bigger than erasing the 3-0 series lead to the
>> Yankees in 2004. Again, expressed in totally rough odds, you'd expect a
>> team holding a 7-0 lead heading into the bottom of the 7th in an away
>> game
>> to win that game 99 percent of the time. Actually, more than that, but
>> we'll give Boston some credit for having MLB's best offense and an
>> incredible HFA this season.
>>
>> So 0.01 chance of winning that game multiplied by a 0.40 chance of
>> winning
>> tonight's game times a 0.50 chance of winning tomorrow's game (yeah I
>> posted
>> earlier that the Rays should be favored given the pitching matchups, but
>> now
>> that I look at it Lester vs. Garza should favor Boston)... hitting the
>> trifecta on those three outcomes is roughly a 1 in 500 chance.
>>
>> The comeback against NYY while incredible was far less improbable...
>> even
>> if pessimistic about Boston's chances in each game -- say only a 40
>> percent
>> chance of winning each game -- pegs Boston's odds of that comeback at 1
>> in
>> 40. Shoot, even if you tip the odds in NYY's favor in that Game 4 given
>> that the Yankees had Rivera on the mound in the bottom of the 9th with a
>> 1-run lead and a chance to end the series -- call it a 5 percent chance
>> Boston had of winning the game at that point -- the odds of Boston coming
>> all the way back to win it were 1 in 300... still a lot better than their
>> chances in the 7th inning Thursday.
>
> Aaaaand so much for that... have to admit, I just had that nasty feeling
> TB was doomed. I guess it's fitting that they continue to defy
> expectations.
>
> Interesting note: the starters for each team were guys who could have
> started for the Twins this year had they not made the trades they did!
>
> That Garza kid can pitch, can't he?
>
> brink

What insight!

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powrwrap

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Since: May 18, 2007
Posts: 571



(Msg. 11) Posted: Mon Oct 20, 2008 7:29 am
Post subject: Re: So how badly did Maddon screw the pooch tonight? [Login to view extended thread Info.]
Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)

On Oct 19, 10:49 pm, "brink" wrote:
> "brink" wrote in message
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> > "powrwrap" wrote in message
> >
> >> Balfour is no mystery. Fastball. Here it comes. Hit it. BTW, it seemed
> >> that was the only pitch that Wheeler threw too.
>
> >> While the Rays bullpen blew up in this game the story of this ALCS is
> >> the meltdown of the Red Sox pitching. They are pathetic. B.J. Upton is
> >> not a power hitter. Longoria is a pretty good hitter, but really, he's
> >> playing over his head. Carlos Pena has power but he's not a .400
> >> hitter, etc.
>
> >> The Red Sox come from behind win is just a bump in the road for the
> >> Rays. The only thing surprising about the Red Sox winning a game at
> >> Fenway was that they came from so large of a deficit. The Rays took
> >> two out of three in Boston. Now it's back to the dungeon in St.
> >> Petersburg where the Rays will finally put the Sox down for good.
>
> > I hope you're right, but it's looking more and more like this Boston team
> > is
> > like Night of the Living Dead.  It is unreal the lengths you have to go to
> > to kill these guys.
>
> > If they come back and win this series -- and despite all the "momentum"
> > swinging their way dramatically that is still a very big IF -- I'd say
> > this
> > comeback would be even bigger than erasing the 3-0 series lead to the
> > Yankees in 2004.  Again, expressed in totally rough odds, you'd expect a
> > team holding a 7-0 lead heading into the bottom of the 7th in an away game
> > to win that game 99 percent of the time.  Actually, more than that, but
> > we'll give Boston some credit for having MLB's best offense and an
> > incredible HFA this season.
>
> > So 0.01 chance of winning that game multiplied by a 0.40 chance of winning
> > tonight's game times a 0.50 chance of winning tomorrow's game (yeah I
> > posted
> > earlier that the Rays should be favored given the pitching matchups, but
> > now
> > that I look at it Lester vs. Garza should favor Boston)...  hitting the
> > trifecta on those three outcomes is roughly a 1 in 500 chance.
>
> > The comeback against NYY while incredible was far less improbable...  even
> > if pessimistic about Boston's chances in each game -- say only a 40
> > percent
> > chance of winning each game -- pegs Boston's odds of that comeback at 1 in
> > 40.  Shoot, even if you tip the odds in NYY's favor in that Game 4 given
> > that the Yankees had Rivera on the mound in the bottom of the 9th with a
> > 1-run lead and a chance to end the series -- call it a 5 percent chance
> > Boston had of winning the game at that point -- the odds of Boston coming
> > all the way back to win it were 1 in 300... still a lot better than their
> > chances in the 7th inning Thursday.
>
> Aaaaand so much for that...  have to admit, I just had that nasty feeling TB
> was doomed.  I guess it's fitting that they continue to defy expectations.
>
> Interesting note: the starters for each team were guys who could have
> started for the Twins this year had they not made the trades they did!
>
> That Garza kid can pitch, can't he?

I wonder if Bill Smith still has the receipt from the Delmon trade?
Maybe he can take him back and exchange him for Garza. Garza had
complete mastery of his curve ball and nice velocity on his fast ball.
I thought he hit Pedroia on purpose.

Maddon was masterful (again). He let Garza continue the 8th inning
because he still had juice (even at 117 pitches). Only Bartlett's
error stopped Garza from going another inning (or two?). Then Maddon
used his pen to get the match-ups he wanted while staying away from
Balfour. Going to Price with the bases loaded was a gutsy call. Price
sure looked poised out there. His slider reminded me of Liriano's in
2006. Nasty. That shot of the empty bullpen at the bottom of the
eighth showing that no one was warming up to replace Price was great.
Another high draft pick by the Rays that worked out well for them.

The bottom third of the Red Sox lineup is a black hole. Kotsay,
Varitek, Cora/Lowrie. Francona only had two right-handed bats on the
bench in the ninth--Lowrie and backup catcher Kevin Cash. Not much
maneuvering room there.
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brink

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Since: Sep 10, 2007
Posts: 299



(Msg. 12) Posted: Mon Oct 20, 2008 9:04 am
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powrwrap wrote:
> On Oct 19, 10:49 pm, "brink" wrote:
>> "brink" wrote in message
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>> "powrwrap" wrote in message
>>>
>>>> Balfour is no mystery. Fastball. Here it comes. Hit it. BTW, it
>>>> seemed that was the only pitch that Wheeler threw too.
>>
>>>> While the Rays bullpen blew up in this game the story of this ALCS
>>>> is the meltdown of the Red Sox pitching. They are pathetic. B.J.
>>>> Upton is not a power hitter. Longoria is a pretty good hitter, but
>>>> really, he's playing over his head. Carlos Pena has power but he's
>>>> not a .400 hitter, etc.
>>
>>>> The Red Sox come from behind win is just a bump in the road for the
>>>> Rays. The only thing surprising about the Red Sox winning a game at
>>>> Fenway was that they came from so large of a deficit. The Rays took
>>>> two out of three in Boston. Now it's back to the dungeon in St.
>>>> Petersburg where the Rays will finally put the Sox down for good.
>>
>>> I hope you're right, but it's looking more and more like this
>>> Boston team is
>>> like Night of the Living Dead. It is unreal the lengths you have to
>>> go to to kill these guys.
>>
>>> If they come back and win this series -- and despite all the
>>> "momentum" swinging their way dramatically that is still a very big
>>> IF -- I'd say this
>>> comeback would be even bigger than erasing the 3-0 series lead to
>>> the Yankees in 2004. Again, expressed in totally rough odds, you'd
>>> expect a team holding a 7-0 lead heading into the bottom of the 7th
>>> in an away game to win that game 99 percent of the time. Actually,
>>> more than that, but we'll give Boston some credit for having MLB's
>>> best offense and an incredible HFA this season.
>>
>>> So 0.01 chance of winning that game multiplied by a 0.40 chance of
>>> winning tonight's game times a 0.50 chance of winning tomorrow's
>>> game (yeah I posted
>>> earlier that the Rays should be favored given the pitching
>>> matchups, but now
>>> that I look at it Lester vs. Garza should favor Boston)... hitting
>>> the trifecta on those three outcomes is roughly a 1 in 500 chance.
>>
>>> The comeback against NYY while incredible was far less
>>> improbable... even if pessimistic about Boston's chances in each
>>> game -- say only a 40 percent
>>> chance of winning each game -- pegs Boston's odds of that comeback
>>> at 1 in
>>> 40. Shoot, even if you tip the odds in NYY's favor in that Game 4
>>> given that the Yankees had Rivera on the mound in the bottom of the
>>> 9th with a 1-run lead and a chance to end the series -- call it a 5
>>> percent chance Boston had of winning the game at that point -- the
>>> odds of Boston coming all the way back to win it were 1 in 300...
>>> still a lot better than their chances in the 7th inning Thursday.
>>
>> Aaaaand so much for that... have to admit, I just had that nasty
>> feeling TB was doomed. I guess it's fitting that they continue to
>> defy expectations.
>>
>> Interesting note: the starters for each team were guys who could have
>> started for the Twins this year had they not made the trades they
>> did!
>>
>> That Garza kid can pitch, can't he?
>
> I wonder if Bill Smith still has the receipt from the Delmon trade?
> Maybe he can take him back and exchange him for Garza. Garza had
> complete mastery of his curve ball and nice velocity on his fast ball.
> I thought he hit Pedroia on purpose.

No way. Put Pedroia on base on purpose in front of Ortiz? I don't think
so.

>
> Maddon was masterful (again). He let Garza continue the 8th inning
> because he still had juice (even at 117 pitches). Only Bartlett's
> error stopped Garza from going another inning (or two?). Then Maddon
> used his pen to get the match-ups he wanted while staying away from
> Balfour.

Yeah. He did *exactly* what I was calling for him to do in Game 5 -- screw
the pitch count, go with the hot hand. It's not something I'd recommend
doing in anything other than a playoff game, especially a closeout game.
But I think it's the right call. Garza backed it up.

Going to Price with the bases loaded was a gutsy call. Price
> sure looked poised out there. His slider reminded me of Liriano's in
> 2006. Nasty.

He's great so I don't know if I'd even call it "gutsy" -- it was the right
call given the lefty Drew being up there. "Gutsy" might have been letting
him decide the game without the pen warming after walking the first batter
in the 9th.

That shot of the empty bullpen at the bottom of the
> eighth showing that no one was warming up to replace Price was great.
> Another high draft pick by the Rays that worked out well for them.
>
> The bottom third of the Red Sox lineup is a black hole. Kotsay,
> Varitek, Cora/Lowrie. Francona only had two right-handed bats on the
> bench in the ninth--Lowrie and backup catcher Kevin Cash. Not much
> maneuvering room there.

Kotsay played very well for them and was far from a black hole. The
production they got from C and SS was terrible though -- not different from
most teams, actually... Bartlett was horrible for the Rays and though
Navarro wasn't the Rays' 2nd weakness is in RF.

These were two very well matched teams. Great starting, great bullpen,
fantastic hitters 2-4.

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