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Since: Jun 13, 2005
Posts: 775
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(Msg. 1) Posted: Fri Jan 19, 2007 7:31 pm
Post subject: Wow -- Lincecum
Archived from groups: alt>sports>baseball>sf-giants (more info?)
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Jim Baker over at BP did his look today at the guys with no major league
experience with the highest this-year major league projection at their
positions, using BP's PECOTA system.
Now, I'm not a great believer in projecting pitchers, and add any
possible disclaimers that you can think of...but Lincecum is his guy at
P. Actually, it's Daisuke Matsuzaka, but Lincecum is just behind him,
which is pretty damn impressive; Lincecum projects as the Giants *best*
SP this season, apparently, if they just stuck him in the rotation.
I'm not saying I would do that, but it's nice to have that on his side.
(If it were me, I'd probably give him 4-8 starts in AA or AAA, and if
he's dominating there I'd bring him to the majors, give him 20-30 IP in
long relief out of the bullpen, and if that goes well put him into the
rotation).
Lincecum's comps? K-Rod is #1, followed by Kerry Wood, Pedro Martinez,
Juan Pizarro, and Nolan Ryan. Other good names in his top 20 comps are
Eckersley (#11) and Koufax (16), and Curt Simmons (6) and Al Downing
(1  aren't chopped liver...OTOH, Jesse Foppert is #13, so youneverknow.
Cain's #1 comp this year is John Smoltz. His overall list isn't great,
although some of the not-greats are guys who were very good and then
burned out (Andy Benes, Alex Fernandez, Gary Nolan).
Zito's projection isn't great, but with Glavine, Palmer, and Carlton
among the top seven guys on his list, I'm at least somewhat encouraged
(not as excited about Chan Ho Park).
Hennessey's #2 guy is Dick Pole, and his list is all guys you never
heard of unless they were pitching coaches with funny names (Pole, Eli
Grba) or briefly Giants (Renie Martin, Clint Hartung as a pitcher) or
had famous family members (Cloyd Boyer).
Lowry's comps aren't quite as bad, but not very thrilling...The
relatively well known guys are Ron Bryant at #6, Knepper is 8, Doug
Davis 9, Bob Ojeda 10, and also Trevor Wilson, Ed Whitson, Allan Watson,
and John Curtis.
Correia's #1 comp is Dave Stewart. It's just a fluke; the rest of his
list is mediocre swingmen.
Misch has Ross Grimsley and Scott MacGregor on his list, but not much
else at all (lots of guys who didn't make it to the majors).
Morris has lots of famous guys, but you would have to go back and see
where they were in their careers...too much work.
Beach Boys Wilson has a dull list, lots of bullpen fodder, a couple of
good relievers.
Sanchez has one of my favorite guys, Roger Moret...other than that, not
a lot. Al Leiter is easily the best guy on his list, I think.
Taschner has a lot of guys who lasted a long time, with Embree the #1.
JHB |
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Since: Aug 09, 2006
Posts: 84
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(Msg. 2) Posted: Fri Jan 19, 2007 7:31 pm
Post subject: Re: Wow -- Lincecum [Login to view extended thread Info.]
Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)
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Yes, would love to see Lincecum in Fresno to start. If he's as advanced
as they say, he just needs innings against decent hitters. But insead
of the pen, I'd rather see him called up as a spot starter as needed,
injuries or whatever. Don't really care how good he pitches cuz he'd be
getting experience against ML bats. This kind of assumes Ortiz or
Hennessey/Sanchez can snag the 5th role. We'll get to see Lincecum in
Spring Training. He's a big reason Sabean made no trades this
offseason, yet. Everybody wants Lincecum and Sabean wisely made him
untouchable.
Jonathan Bernstein wrote:
> Jim Baker over at BP did his look today at the guys with no major league
> experience with the highest this-year major league projection at their
> positions, using BP's PECOTA system.
>
> Now, I'm not a great believer in projecting pitchers, and add any
> possible disclaimers that you can think of...but Lincecum is his guy at
> P. Actually, it's Daisuke Matsuzaka, but Lincecum is just behind him,
> which is pretty damn impressive; Lincecum projects as the Giants *best*
> SP this season, apparently, if they just stuck him in the rotation.
>
> I'm not saying I would do that, but it's nice to have that on his side.
>
> (If it were me, I'd probably give him 4-8 starts in AA or AAA, and if
> he's dominating there I'd bring him to the majors, give him 20-30 IP in
> long relief out of the bullpen, and if that goes well put him into the
> rotation).
>
> Lincecum's comps? K-Rod is #1, followed by Kerry Wood, Pedro Martinez,
> Juan Pizarro, and Nolan Ryan. Other good names in his top 20 comps are
> Eckersley (#11) and Koufax (16), and Curt Simmons (6) and Al Downing
> (1 aren't chopped liver...OTOH, Jesse Foppert is #13, so youneverknow.
>
> Cain's #1 comp this year is John Smoltz. His overall list isn't great,
> although some of the not-greats are guys who were very good and then
> burned out (Andy Benes, Alex Fernandez, Gary Nolan).
>
> Zito's projection isn't great, but with Glavine, Palmer, and Carlton
> among the top seven guys on his list, I'm at least somewhat encouraged
> (not as excited about Chan Ho Park).
>
> Hennessey's #2 guy is Dick Pole, and his list is all guys you never
> heard of unless they were pitching coaches with funny names (Pole, Eli
> Grba) or briefly Giants (Renie Martin, Clint Hartung as a pitcher) or
> had famous family members (Cloyd Boyer).
>
> Lowry's comps aren't quite as bad, but not very thrilling...The
> relatively well known guys are Ron Bryant at #6, Knepper is 8, Doug
> Davis 9, Bob Ojeda 10, and also Trevor Wilson, Ed Whitson, Allan Watson,
> and John Curtis.
>
> Correia's #1 comp is Dave Stewart. It's just a fluke; the rest of his
> list is mediocre swingmen.
>
> Misch has Ross Grimsley and Scott MacGregor on his list, but not much
> else at all (lots of guys who didn't make it to the majors).
>
> Morris has lots of famous guys, but you would have to go back and see
> where they were in their careers...too much work.
>
> Beach Boys Wilson has a dull list, lots of bullpen fodder, a couple of
> good relievers.
>
> Sanchez has one of my favorite guys, Roger Moret...other than that, not
> a lot. Al Leiter is easily the best guy on his list, I think.
>
> Taschner has a lot of guys who lasted a long time, with Embree the #1.
>
> JHB |
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Since: Oct 24, 2006
Posts: 22
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(Msg. 3) Posted: Fri Jan 19, 2007 7:31 pm
Post subject: Re: Wow -- Lincecum [Login to view extended thread Info.]
Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)
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Jonathan Bernstein wrote:
>
> It's the old Earl Weaver theory, to start young pitchers in the bullpen. I
> wouldn't use him in short relief -- put him in early in blowouts, where the
> pressure is reduced.
>
> JHB
This where Lowry, Morris and the #5 starter come in handy. They will
produce
blowouts with such regularity, Lincecum will be pitching on four or
five days
rest through the season. >> Stay informed about: Wow -- Lincecum |
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Since: Apr 10, 2006
Posts: 619
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(Msg. 4) Posted: Sat Jan 20, 2007 12:12 am
Post subject: Re: Wow -- Lincecum [Login to view extended thread Info.]
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Jonathan Bernstein wrote:
> (If it were me, I'd probably give him 4-8 starts in AA or AAA, and if
> he's dominating there I'd bring him to the majors, give him 20-30 IP in
> long relief out of the bullpen, and if that goes well put him into the
> rotation).
Thanks for the good info, but out of curiosity why would you put him in the pen?
I'd certainly like to see him begin the year in Fresno, but I think I'm with Pat
that I'd rather have him come up for a some spot starts. I know that pitchers
should be able to adjust to whatever role they're put in, but especially with
young guys I'd prefer to put them in where they'll feel the most comfortable,
and starters usually like to start. >> Stay informed about: Wow -- Lincecum |
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Since: Jun 13, 2005
Posts: 775
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(Msg. 5) Posted: Sat Jan 20, 2007 1:07 am
Post subject: Re: Wow -- Lincecum [Login to view extended thread Info.]
Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)
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Jamal Bernhard <noone.RemoveThis@nowhere.net> wrote in
>
> Thanks for the good info, but out of curiosity why would you put him
> in the pen? I'd certainly like to see him begin the year in Fresno,
> but I think I'm with Pat that I'd rather have him come up for a some
> spot starts. I know that pitchers should be able to adjust to whatever
> role they're put in, but especially with young guys I'd prefer to put
> them in where they'll feel the most comfortable, and starters usually
> like to start.
It's the old Earl Weaver theory, to start young pitchers in the bullpen. I
wouldn't use him in short relief -- put him in early in blowouts, where the
pressure is reduced.
JHB >> Stay informed about: Wow -- Lincecum |
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Since: Jun 28, 2004
Posts: 193
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(Msg. 6) Posted: Sat Jan 20, 2007 1:07 am
Post subject: Re: Wow -- Lincecum [Login to view extended thread Info.]
Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)
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On Sat, 20 Jan 2007 01:07:15 GMT, Jonathan Bernstein
<jhb RemoveThis @socrates.berkeley.edu> wrote:
>It's the old Earl Weaver theory, to start young pitchers in the bullpen. I
>wouldn't use him in short relief -- put him in early in blowouts, where the
>pressure is reduced.
We worship Earl Weaver at the Rubio household ... my copy of Weaver on
Strategy is barely readable, it's so beat up (even the newer one I
bought a few years ago). I think that almost every decision about
Lincecum should be connected to long-term thinking. I say "almost"
because if he has proven his excellence in the here and now and the
Giants are in a pennant race, you have to let him start for the big
club. Outside of that, I agree ... start the season in the minors as a
starting pitcher, bring him up to the Giants if he proves he's ready,
and make him the middle reliever the rest of the season, after which
you evaluate his future prospects.
Steven >> Stay informed about: Wow -- Lincecum |
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Since: Oct 17, 2006
Posts: 49
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(Msg. 7) Posted: Sat Jan 20, 2007 1:07 am
Post subject: Re: Wow -- Lincecum [Login to view extended thread Info.]
Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)
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Steven Rubio wrote:
> On Sat, 20 Jan 2007 01:07:15 GMT, Jonathan Bernstein
> <jhb DeleteThis @socrates.berkeley.edu> wrote:
>
>
>>It's the old Earl Weaver theory, to start young pitchers in the bullpen. I
>>wouldn't use him in short relief -- put him in early in blowouts, where the
>>pressure is reduced.
>
>
> We worship Earl Weaver at the Rubio household ... my copy of Weaver on
> Strategy is barely readable, it's so beat up (even the newer one I
> bought a few years ago). I think that almost every decision about
> Lincecum should be connected to long-term thinking. I say "almost"
> because if he has proven his excellence in the here and now and the
> Giants are in a pennant race, you have to let him start for the big
> club. Outside of that, I agree ... start the season in the minors as a
> starting pitcher, bring him up to the Giants if he proves he's ready,
> and make him the middle reliever the rest of the season, after which
> you evaluate his future prospects.
>
> Steven
If you haven't heard Earl Weaver's radio rant (or Lee Elia's), here is a
link to those and other classic rants. Not for the kiddies!
http://bloopers.hankhayes.com/
--
Jeff
The one constant through all the years has been baseball.
Terence Mann to Ray Kinsella in Field of Dreams >> Stay informed about: Wow -- Lincecum |
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Since: Apr 10, 2006
Posts: 619
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(Msg. 8) Posted: Sat Jan 20, 2007 1:11 am
Post subject: Re: Wow -- Lincecum [Login to view extended thread Info.]
Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)
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Jonathan Bernstein wrote:
> Jamal Bernhard <noone.DeleteThis@nowhere.net> wrote in
>
>>Thanks for the good info, but out of curiosity why would you put him
>>in the pen? I'd certainly like to see him begin the year in Fresno,
>>but I think I'm with Pat that I'd rather have him come up for a some
>>spot starts. I know that pitchers should be able to adjust to whatever
>>role they're put in, but especially with young guys I'd prefer to put
>>them in where they'll feel the most comfortable, and starters usually
>>like to start.
>
>
> It's the old Earl Weaver theory, to start young pitchers in the bullpen. I
> wouldn't use him in short relief -- put him in early in blowouts, where the
> pressure is reduced.
Yeah, I think it depends on what the short-term plans are for the guy. If we
just want to give him some big-league exposure in preparation for moving him
into the rotation a year or two down the road, then I probably agree with that.
But, if we realistically think he could be ready for the starting rotation this
year, then I'm more inclined to put him out there and see how he does. >> Stay informed about: Wow -- Lincecum |
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Since: May 03, 2007
Posts: 1804
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(Msg. 9) Posted: Sat Jan 20, 2007 1:29 am
Post subject: Re: Wow -- Lincecum [Login to view extended thread Info.]
Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)
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"Jonathan Bernstein" <jhb DeleteThis @socrates.berkeley.edu> wrote in message
news:Xns98BD899C5AFB9jhbsocratesberkeleye@207.115.17.102...
>
> Jim Baker over at BP did his look today at the guys with no major league
> experience with the highest this-year major league projection at their
> positions, using BP's PECOTA system.
>
> Now, I'm not a great believer in projecting pitchers, and add any
> possible disclaimers that you can think of...but Lincecum is his guy at
> P. Actually, it's Daisuke Matsuzaka, but Lincecum is just behind him,
> which is pretty damn impressive; Lincecum projects as the Giants *best*
> SP this season, apparently, if they just stuck him in the rotation.
>
> I'm not saying I would do that, but it's nice to have that on his side.
>
> (If it were me, I'd probably give him 4-8 starts in AA or AAA, and if
> he's dominating there I'd bring him to the majors, give him 20-30 IP in
> long relief out of the bullpen, and if that goes well put him into the
> rotation).
>
> Lincecum's comps? K-Rod is #1, followed by Kerry Wood, Pedro Martinez,
> Juan Pizarro, and Nolan Ryan. Other good names in his top 20 comps are
> Eckersley (#11) and Koufax (16), and Curt Simmons (6) and Al Downing
> (1 aren't chopped liver...OTOH, Jesse Foppert is #13, so youneverknow.
>
> Cain's #1 comp this year is John Smoltz. His overall list isn't great,
> although some of the not-greats are guys who were very good and then
> burned out (Andy Benes, Alex Fernandez, Gary Nolan).
>
> Zito's projection isn't great, but with Glavine, Palmer, and Carlton
> among the top seven guys on his list, I'm at least somewhat encouraged
> (not as excited about Chan Ho Park).
>
> Hennessey's #2 guy is Dick Pole, and his list is all guys you never
> heard of unless they were pitching coaches with funny names (Pole, Eli
> Grba) or briefly Giants (Renie Martin, Clint Hartung as a pitcher) or
> had famous family members (Cloyd Boyer).
>
> Lowry's comps aren't quite as bad, but not very thrilling...The
> relatively well known guys are Ron Bryant at #6, Knepper is 8, Doug
> Davis 9, Bob Ojeda 10, and also Trevor Wilson, Ed Whitson, Allan Watson,
> and John Curtis.
>
> Correia's #1 comp is Dave Stewart. It's just a fluke; the rest of his
> list is mediocre swingmen.
>
> Misch has Ross Grimsley and Scott MacGregor on his list, but not much
> else at all (lots of guys who didn't make it to the majors).
>
> Morris has lots of famous guys, but you would have to go back and see
> where they were in their careers...too much work.
>
> Beach Boys Wilson has a dull list, lots of bullpen fodder, a couple of
> good relievers.
>
> Sanchez has one of my favorite guys, Roger Moret...other than that, not
> a lot. Al Leiter is easily the best guy on his list, I think.
>
> Taschner has a lot of guys who lasted a long time, with Embree the #1.
>
> JHB
This just shows you how Effed, up these comps are. >> Stay informed about: Wow -- Lincecum |
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Posts: 775
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(Msg. 10) Posted: Sat Jan 20, 2007 1:31 am
Post subject: Re: Wow -- Lincecum [Login to view extended thread Info.]
Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)
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Jamal Bernhard <noone DeleteThis @nowhere.net> wrote in
> Jonathan Bernstein wrote:
>>
>> It's the old Earl Weaver theory, to start young pitchers in the
>> bullpen. I wouldn't use him in short relief -- put him in early in
>> blowouts, where the pressure is reduced.
>
> Yeah, I think it depends on what the short-term plans are for the guy.
> If we just want to give him some big-league exposure in preparation
> for moving him into the rotation a year or two down the road, then I
> probably agree with that. But, if we realistically think he could be
> ready for the starting rotation this year, then I'm more inclined to
> put him out there and see how he does.
I do think he might be ready, but I'd like to avoid as much pressure as
possible...his first start will be a big deal regardless, but it'll be
less so if it's in May or June instead of the first week of the season,
and if it's only his first start and not also his first IP...and really,
I'd like it to be on the road, against a terrible team, in a pitchers'
park. And with the best fielding team available behind him.
I admit that all of that is just my feelings about it, and I can't prove
that any of it makes a difference, but that's what I want to see.
JHB >> Stay informed about: Wow -- Lincecum |
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Since: Jun 13, 2005
Posts: 775
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(Msg. 11) Posted: Sat Jan 20, 2007 4:38 am
Post subject: Re: Wow -- Lincecum [Login to view extended thread Info.]
Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)
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Steven Rubio <srubio RemoveThis @gmail.com> wrote in
news:7s13r29gao2omrbggk52gogujc7a3rdgj7@4ax.com:
> On Sat, 20 Jan 2007 01:07:15 GMT, Jonathan Bernstein
> <jhb RemoveThis @socrates.berkeley.edu> wrote:
>
>>It's the old Earl Weaver theory, to start young pitchers in the
>>bullpen. I wouldn't use him in short relief -- put him in early in
>>blowouts, where the pressure is reduced.
>
> We worship Earl Weaver at the Rubio household ... my copy of Weaver on
> Strategy is barely readable, it's so beat up (even the newer one I
> bought a few years ago). I think that almost every decision about
> Lincecum should be connected to long-term thinking. I say "almost"
> because if he has proven his excellence in the here and now and the
> Giants are in a pennant race, you have to let him start for the big
> club. Outside of that, I agree ... start the season in the minors as a
> starting pitcher, bring him up to the Giants if he proves he's ready,
> and make him the middle reliever the rest of the season, after which
> you evaluate his future prospects.
If he's doing well out of the bullpen, I have no problem at all moving
him into the rotation this season. He'll be 23, so he's not *way*
young...I'd just take it one step at a time, but I have no problem at
all making the steps fairly quick.
I certainly agree about long-term thinking with him.
JHB >> Stay informed about: Wow -- Lincecum |
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Since: May 03, 2007
Posts: 1804
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(Msg. 12) Posted: Sat Jan 20, 2007 4:38 am
Post subject: Re: Wow -- Lincecum [Login to view extended thread Info.]
Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)
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"Jonathan Bernstein" <jhb.RemoveThis@socrates.berkeley.edu> wrote in message
news:Xns98BDE6689DFACjhbsocratesberkeleye@207.115.17.102...
> Steven Rubio <srubio.RemoveThis@gmail.com> wrote in
> news:7s13r29gao2omrbggk52gogujc7a3rdgj7@4ax.com:
>
>> On Sat, 20 Jan 2007 01:07:15 GMT, Jonathan Bernstein
>> <jhb.RemoveThis@socrates.berkeley.edu> wrote:
>>
>>>It's the old Earl Weaver theory, to start young pitchers in the
>>>bullpen. I wouldn't use him in short relief -- put him in early in
>>>blowouts, where the pressure is reduced.
>>
>> We worship Earl Weaver at the Rubio household ... my copy of Weaver on
>> Strategy is barely readable, it's so beat up (even the newer one I
>> bought a few years ago). I think that almost every decision about
>> Lincecum should be connected to long-term thinking. I say "almost"
>> because if he has proven his excellence in the here and now and the
>> Giants are in a pennant race, you have to let him start for the big
>> club. Outside of that, I agree ... start the season in the minors as a
>> starting pitcher, bring him up to the Giants if he proves he's ready,
>> and make him the middle reliever the rest of the season, after which
>> you evaluate his future prospects.
>
> If he's doing well out of the bullpen, I have no problem at all moving
> him into the rotation this season. He'll be 23, so he's not *way*
> young...I'd just take it one step at a time, but I have no problem at
> all making the steps fairly quick.
>
> I certainly agree about long-term thinking with him.
>
> JCain and Lincecum and pray for rain. Oh yea we have zito too. >> Stay informed about: Wow -- Lincecum |
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Since: Dec 29, 2006
Posts: 89
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(Msg. 13) Posted: Mon Jan 22, 2007 4:34 am
Post subject: Re: Wow -- Lincecum [Login to view extended thread Info.]
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"Jonathan Bernstein" <jhb.DeleteThis@socrates.berkeley.edu> wrote in message
>
> Lincecum projects as the Giants *best* SP this season
OK then, let's be smart and trade him while his value is high.
Easy, guys, I'm just kidding...
Sabean drafted Lincecum. He must be a genius.  >> Stay informed about: Wow -- Lincecum |
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Posts: 89
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(Msg. 14) Posted: Mon Jan 22, 2007 4:34 am
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(Msg. 15) Posted: Mon Jan 22, 2007 10:43 pm
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"Ah...I'm not really here" <Ah...imnotreally DeleteThis @asb.sfg> wrote in
>
> Sabean drafted Lincecum. He must be a genius.
Hey, Sabean deserves a ton of credit for this one. No sarcasm necessary,
for a change.
JHB >> Stay informed about: Wow -- Lincecum |
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