Stolen bases are overrated?

elaich wrote:
> Ron Johnson <johnson DeleteThis @ccrs.nrcan.gc.ca> wrote in news:42bd0fc0-abd1-46b7-
> a38a-de0470bd4542 DeleteThis @b1g2000hsg.googlegroups.com:
>
>> And that goes back to the point I've made in other threads.
>> Stolen bases are generally overrated but they're not devoid
>> of value.
>
> I think the advantage of speed on the bases is legging out hits moreso than
> stealing. The Giants legged out several doubles tonight that probably would
> have been singles from slower runners.

That might be the case, but those benefits would be reflected in
ordinary hitting stats. If a batter's speed turns outs into singles,
then he is going to have a higher AVG, OBP and SLG. If his speed turns
singles into doubles (or doubles into triples), then he is going to have
a higher SLG. The 2008 Giants are close to the bottom of the league in
almost all measures of hitting and offense, so their speed isn't
sufficient to offset their collective inability to hit a baseball.

-Brent

Ron Johnson wrote:

>> True, but their value has diminished in the steroids era, no?
>
> Not exactly. The stolen base has a broadly similar
> value regardless of offensive context. Caught stealing
> (or indeed any out) are more costly in a high
> offensive context.

Well sure, that's what I meant. You can't have SBs without CSs as well, so the
strategy of attempting stolen bases has become less viable. But in theory if you
had someone who could steal without being caught (a la Ichiro a couple years
ago) then that would be about as valuable as it would have been in the 80s.