Sickels takes a look at Edwin Jcakson

John Sickels looks at Edwin Jackson and his turn around from last year
to this.

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/5/16/519304/edwin-jackson-prospect-ret

Edwin Jackson was drafted by the Dodgers in the sixth round in 2001,
out of high school in Columbus, Georgia. A two-way player in high
school, he was considered raw but promising by the Dodgers on the
mound and they made him a full-time pitcher. He posted a 2.45 ERA in
his pro debut in the Gulf Coast League, with a 23/19 K/BB ratio in 22
innings, showing above-average velocity but needing to improve his
control. He would rate as a "Grade C with higher potential" prospect
if I had put him in the 2002 book.

Jackson took a big step forward in '02, posting a 1.98 ERA with a
85/33 K/BB and just two homers allowed in 105 innings for South
Georgia in the Sally League. He hit 96 MPH with the fastball, and
while his curve, slider, and changeup were all erratic, it was clear
his potential was immense. I gave him a Grade B in the '03 book,
wanting to see better component ratios but praising his long-term
upside.

Skipped past High-A in 2003, he went 7-7, 3.70 with a 157/53 K/BB in
148 innings for Double-A Jacksonville, allowing just 121 hits. His
fastball now hit 99 MPH at times, and was consistently in the 93-95
range. His secondary pitches and control improved. The Dodgers gave
him three starts in September and he did great, going 2-1, 2.45 with a
19/11 K/BB in 22 innings. I moved him up to a straight Grade A,
impressed wtih his rapid progress, but warning that he could struggle
if rushed and that it would be best to use him as a long reliever at
first rather than trying to push him into the rotation right away. I
also warned that Triple-A Las Vegas was a tough place to pitch and
that some adjustments could be needed.

Indeed, 2004 was a struggle: he was hammered in 24.2 major league
innings (7.30 ERA) and developed major control problems at Vegas, with
a 5.86 ERA and 70/55 K/BB in 91 innings. His velocity was down a bit,
his secondary pitches regressed, he had a strained forearm, and in
general he just wasn't as sharp. I reduced him to a Grade B in the
2005 book, and wrote the following:

"My guess, and to be clear this is a pure guess, is that he will
continue to struggle somewhat, improving a bit but not to his '03
level, at least not right away. But after some additional scuffling,
he'll eventually turn things around and have a good career, perhaps in
relief, but only after most of his fantasy owners have punted."

More struggles followed in 2005: complete collapse of his control at
Vegas (8.62 ERA, 33/37 K/BB in 55 innings), and additional poor
pitching in the majors. The Dodgers punted and shipped him off to
Tampa Bay, where he had a difficult time in 2006 in both the majors
and minors, before starting to show some signs of life last year, and
then pitching well in the early going in 2007. It seems like he's been
around forever, but Jackson is still just 24.

In retrospect, I think Jackson's struggles 2004-2006 were a result of
1) being rushed a bit too fast in general 2) some minor nagging health
problems 3) Las Vegas 4) confidence issues and learning to cope with
adversity. It is too early to know if his better pitching this year is
genuine skill improvement, better luck, or a combination of the two
factors. i'd like to see the K/BB ratio improve a bit, but it has been
better over his last three starts, and it's not like this is coming
out of nowhere: he's flashed brilliance before. My guess is that
Jackson is genuinely improving, and that he'll end up having a solid
year. In short, I'm sticking with my "guess" back in 2005.

This is a good read for anyone who thinks the Dodgers should bring up
Kershaw to fill the 5th starter role.


"Mike De Leon" <lazlo98.TakeThisOut@earthlink.net> wrote in message
news:91ebbf30-19f6-416a-a497-2a6ca9447526@a1g2000hsb.googlegroups.com...
> John Sickels looks at Edwin Jackson and his turn around from last year
> to this.
>
> http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/5/16/519304/edwin-jackson-prospect-ret
>
> Edwin Jackson was drafted by the Dodgers in the sixth round in 2001,
> out of high school in Columbus, Georgia. A two-way player in high
> school, he was considered raw but promising by the Dodgers on the
> mound and they made him a full-time pitcher. He posted a 2.45 ERA in
> his pro debut in the Gulf Coast League, with a 23/19 K/BB ratio in 22
> innings, showing above-average velocity but needing to improve his
> control. He would rate as a "Grade C with higher potential" prospect
> if I had put him in the 2002 book.
>
> Jackson took a big step forward in '02, posting a 1.98 ERA with a
> 85/33 K/BB and just two homers allowed in 105 innings for South
> Georgia in the Sally League. He hit 96 MPH with the fastball, and
> while his curve, slider, and changeup were all erratic, it was clear
> his potential was immense. I gave him a Grade B in the '03 book,
> wanting to see better component ratios but praising his long-term
> upside.
>
> Skipped past High-A in 2003, he went 7-7, 3.70 with a 157/53 K/BB in
> 148 innings for Double-A Jacksonville, allowing just 121 hits. His
> fastball now hit 99 MPH at times, and was consistently in the 93-95
> range. His secondary pitches and control improved. The Dodgers gave
> him three starts in September and he did great, going 2-1, 2.45 with a
> 19/11 K/BB in 22 innings. I moved him up to a straight Grade A,
> impressed wtih his rapid progress, but warning that he could struggle
> if rushed and that it would be best to use him as a long reliever at
> first rather than trying to push him into the rotation right away. I
> also warned that Triple-A Las Vegas was a tough place to pitch and
> that some adjustments could be needed.
>
> Indeed, 2004 was a struggle: he was hammered in 24.2 major league
> innings (7.30 ERA) and developed major control problems at Vegas, with
> a 5.86 ERA and 70/55 K/BB in 91 innings. His velocity was down a bit,
> his secondary pitches regressed, he had a strained forearm, and in
> general he just wasn't as sharp. I reduced him to a Grade B in the
> 2005 book, and wrote the following:
>
> "My guess, and to be clear this is a pure guess, is that he will
> continue to struggle somewhat, improving a bit but not to his '03
> level, at least not right away. But after some additional scuffling,
> he'll eventually turn things around and have a good career, perhaps in
> relief, but only after most of his fantasy owners have punted."
>
> More struggles followed in 2005: complete collapse of his control at
> Vegas (8.62 ERA, 33/37 K/BB in 55 innings), and additional poor
> pitching in the majors. The Dodgers punted and shipped him off to
> Tampa Bay, where he had a difficult time in 2006 in both the majors
> and minors, before starting to show some signs of life last year, and
> then pitching well in the early going in 2007. It seems like he's been
> around forever, but Jackson is still just 24.
>
> In retrospect, I think Jackson's struggles 2004-2006 were a result of
> 1) being rushed a bit too fast in general 2) some minor nagging health
> problems 3) Las Vegas 4) confidence issues and learning to cope with
> adversity. It is too early to know if his better pitching this year is
> genuine skill improvement, better luck, or a combination of the two
> factors. i'd like to see the K/BB ratio improve a bit, but it has been
> better over his last three starts, and it's not like this is coming
> out of nowhere: he's flashed brilliance before. My guess is that
> Jackson is genuinely improving, and that he'll end up having a solid
> year. In short, I'm sticking with my "guess" back in 2005.