Showcasing Salty, Escobar?

"Tarkus" <karnevil9 DeleteThis @atlantabraves.net> wrote
> http://www.ajc.com/blogs/content/shared-blogs/ajc/braves/entries/2006/...30/show

With mcCann hitting well this year and the team appearing committed to
laRoche at 1B, I'm expecting Salty to get traded this offseason.

Colin
 >> Stay informed about: Showcasing Salty, Escobar? 

Alan Honeycutt wrote:

> > If LaRoche bags a 2007 on par with his 2006 THEN you look to think
> > about trading potential replacements. Until he does that it's best to
> > keep Salty as a backup plan IMHO.
>
> I always take fall league numbers with a grain of salt (no pun intended).
> There's some really bad pitching there some years with teams afraid to put
> the extra mileage on their real pitching prospects. Even with the hot month
> in AZ, I'd say that Salty's 2006 put him well out of the untouchable
> category. I'd definitely dangle him out there in hopes of getting some
> immediate help in return.

Agreed. If you can turn him into something helpful at the major league
level you do it. If no one gives you equal value in return, you hold
him and see what he can do at AAA.

> > Escobar is likely trade bait. Renteria holds things down until Andrus
> > arrives.
>
> Does Escobar really thrill anyone? He just put up a 264/361/346 line in AA
> as a 23 year old. His value seems to be almost entirely tied up in his
> defense, which usually starts declining at about this age for most guys.

I have no more use for Escobar than I do for Pena Jr. Either are
useful if and only if something happens to, uh, Pete Orr.

> > Speaking of trades, how about you trade Andruw for a top tier young
> > (inexpensive pitcher), move Langerhans to CF and sign Barry? Yes, I
> > would. depending on who I could get for Andruw.
>
> Andruw's not going to waive his 10 and 5 rights unless/until the Braves are
> out of it during the season.

Stop with the facts. Threaten his family or something.

s/
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Sam Hutcheson wrote:
> Colin William wrote:
>> "Tarkus" <karnevil9 RemoveThis @atlantabraves.net> wrote
>>> http://www.ajc.com/blogs/content/shared-blogs/ajc/braves/entries/2006/...30/show
>>
>> With mcCann hitting well this year and the team appearing committed
>> to laRoche at 1B, I'm expecting Salty to get traded this offseason.
>
> No one should be deemed untouchable, but you have to make sure you get
> real talent in return for real talent too. I suspect that The Catcher
> (tm) will be auditioned at 1B and maybe LF. Hell, can he play 3B?
> It's not like there's no history of C ot 3B shifts and Chipper sure as
> hell isn't going to play forever. Can he play LF where Kelly Johnson
> can move back to 3B?
>
> If LaRoche bags a 2007 on par with his 2006 THEN you look to think
> about trading potential replacements. Until he does that it's best to
> keep Salty as a backup plan IMHO.

I always take fall league numbers with a grain of salt (no pun intended).
There's some really bad pitching there some years with teams afraid to put
the extra mileage on their real pitching prospects. Even with the hot month
in AZ, I'd say that Salty's 2006 put him well out of the untouchable
category. I'd definitely dangle him out there in hopes of getting some
immediate help in return.

> Escobar is likely trade bait. Renteria holds things down until Andrus
> arrives.

Does Escobar really thrill anyone? He just put up a 264/361/346 line in AA
as a 23 year old. His value seems to be almost entirely tied up in his
defense, which usually starts declining at about this age for most guys.

> Speaking of trades, how about you trade Andruw for a top tier young
> (inexpensive pitcher), move Langerhans to CF and sign Barry? Yes, I
> would. depending on who I could get for Andruw.

Andruw's not going to waive his 10 and 5 rights unless/until the Braves are
out of it during the season.
 >> Stay informed about: Showcasing Salty, Escobar? 

> Agreed. If you can turn him into something helpful at the major league
> level you do it. If no one gives you equal value in return, you hold
> him and see what he can do at AAA.

are the braves going to contend in 2007, or is this a rebuilding year?
serious question.

--
Ben
 >> Stay informed about: Showcasing Salty, Escobar? 

Ben B wrote:
>>Agreed. If you can turn him into something helpful at the major league
>>level you do it. If no one gives you equal value in return, you hold
>>him and see what he can do at AAA.
>
> are the braves going to contend in 2007, or is this a rebuilding year?
> serious question.

I think they they think they're going to contend.

I think they have the potential to contend. We saw how weak the wild
card competition was this year, so that helps, and hte team
underperformed its pythag, which also helps. And surely JS will rustle
up a bullpen.

However, while we're due for a few rebound in pitching (Hudson, for
instance), I think the team has more guys likely to regress than to
improve. LaRoche and McCann and probably Chipper are due for dropoffs.
And frankly, I can see AJ feeling the pressure of a contract year and
sustaining a dropoff. Giles is likely due for a rebound, but maybe not
as much as people would htink (his OPS ended only about 80 points below
his career numbers); then again, Giles is unlikely to be around. I
expect a dropoff from Renteria. But then, LF and RF should hit a little
better.

So in short, I don't think they see it as a rebound year, but I hope
they add players with an eye toward longer-term rebuilding and not just
one-year rentals.

Colin
 >> Stay informed about: Showcasing Salty, Escobar? 

Ben B wrote:
> > Agreed. If you can turn him into something helpful at the major league
> > level you do it. If no one gives you equal value in return, you hold
> > him and see what he can do at AAA.
>
> are the braves going to contend in 2007, or is this a rebuilding year?
> serious question.

They'll contend, for both the division and the wildcard. Hell, they
would have contended this year if not for June. You replace June with
a .500 record and the Braves are probably in the playoffs in 2006.

Things that should get better next year:

Every starter after Smoltz -- Hudson isn't a 91+ ERA guy, Jorge Sosa
and John Thomson is gone, replaced with Hampton and James, and Horacio
Ramirez is now a servicable #5 rather than an overmatched #3. Kyle
Davies waits in the wings. We shouldn't see quite so many starts from
Cormier.

The entire bullpen.

Freedom.

Things that will probably regress: 2B, C, 1B.

I think the offensive slack is more than taken up by the reasonable
expectation of not having such a horrible pitching staff again. Jorge
Sosa is gone, I tell ya. Gone!

s/
 >> Stay informed about: Showcasing Salty, Escobar? 

Tomasz Radko wrote:
> Sam Hutcheson napisa³(a):
>
> > Things that should get better next year:
> >
> > Every starter after Smoltz -- Hudson isn't a 91+ ERA guy, Jorge Sosa
> > and John Thomson is gone, replaced with Hampton and James, and Horacio
> > Ramirez is now a servicable #5 rather than an overmatched #3. Kyle
> > Davies waits in the wings. We shouldn't see quite so many starts from
> > Cormier.
> >
> > The entire bullpen.
> >
> > Freedom.
> >
> > Things that will probably regress: 2B, C, 1B.
>
> So you're taking Smoltzie and Joneses for granted?

Yes. Chipper will miss time with injury and mash the ball when
healthy. Smoltz has put up 2 years of sterling work and seems like a
reasonable bet for the Roger Clemens career decline path. Andruw is
Andruw.

s/
 >> Stay informed about: Showcasing Salty, Escobar? 

In article <1162425010.527535.32520 RemoveThis @m73g2000cwd.googlegroups.com>,
samh RemoveThis @bellsouth.net says...
>
> They'll contend, for both the division and the wildcard. Hell, they
> would have contended this year if not for June. You replace June with
> a .500 record and the Braves are probably in the playoffs in 2006.

That's something I've been meaning to check. They were 6-21 in June,
replacing that with a 14-13 month moves them up 8 games. They finished
9 games out of the wildcard.

Interesting stat: their ERA in June was 4.87 (the NL for the year's
average was 4.49). The pitching wasn't completely awful for the
stretch.

The runs were 139-94 in favor of the opponents, though. They only had
3.5 runs/game instead of 4.5.

--
Cranial Crusader dgh 1138 at bell south point net
 >> Stay informed about: Showcasing Salty, Escobar? 

"Sam Hutcheson" <samh RemoveThis @bellsouth.net> wrote
> Every starter after Smoltz -- Hudson isn't a 91+ ERA guy, Jorge Sosa
> and John Thomson is gone, replaced with Hampton and James, and Horacio
> Ramirez is now a servicable #5 rather than an overmatched #3. Kyle
> Davies waits in the wings. We shouldn't see quite so many starts from
> Cormier.

Do people at this point still expect Davies to be useful? I didn't seen him
pitch this year, so I don't know how his stuff looks. But he's allowed 188
hits and 82 walks in 151 major league innings. Should we expect him to be
better once he gets more distance from his injuries?

Colin
 >> Stay informed about: Showcasing Salty, Escobar? 

"Dale Hicks" <dgh1138 DeleteThis @yahoo.com> wrote> Interesting stat: their ERA in June
was 4.87 (the NL for the year's
> average was 4.49). The pitching wasn't completely awful for the
> stretch.
>
> The runs were 139-94 in favor of the opponents, though. They only had
> 3.5 runs/game instead of 4.5.

I hadn't realized that. Geez, second in the league in runs scored and they
wstill posted a month like that? Good grief.

Colin
 >> Stay informed about: Showcasing Salty, Escobar? 

Sam Hutcheson napisa³(a):

> Things that should get better next year:
>
> Every starter after Smoltz -- Hudson isn't a 91+ ERA guy, Jorge Sosa
> and John Thomson is gone, replaced with Hampton and James, and Horacio
> Ramirez is now a servicable #5 rather than an overmatched #3. Kyle
> Davies waits in the wings. We shouldn't see quite so many starts from
> Cormier.
>
> The entire bullpen.
>
> Freedom.
>
> Things that will probably regress: 2B, C, 1B.

So you're taking Smoltzie and Joneses for granted?

pzdr

TRad
 >> Stay informed about: Showcasing Salty, Escobar? 

Colin William wrote:
> "Sam Hutcheson" <samh.DeleteThis@bellsouth.net> wrote
> > Every starter after Smoltz -- Hudson isn't a 91+ ERA guy, Jorge Sosa
> > and John Thomson is gone, replaced with Hampton and James, and Horacio
> > Ramirez is now a servicable #5 rather than an overmatched #3. Kyle
> > Davies waits in the wings. We shouldn't see quite so many starts from
> > Cormier.
>
> Do people at this point still expect Davies to be useful? I didn't seen him
> pitch this year, so I don't know how his stuff looks. But he's allowed 188
> hits and 82 walks in 151 major league innings. Should we expect him to be
> better once he gets more distance from his injuries?

I no longer expect Davies to be a top tier starter in the majors (at
least not soon), but I do expect Davies to be a bit better than Horacio
Ramirez in the #4/5 slot, and at the very least to not be Cormier.

s/
 >> Stay informed about: Showcasing Salty, Escobar? 

Tomasz Radko wrote:

> > Yes. Chipper will miss time with injury and mash the ball when
> > healthy. Smoltz has put up 2 years of sterling work and seems like a
> > reasonable bet for the Roger Clemens career decline path.
>
> So you think Smoltzie is juicing himself?

Whatever gets you through the night, buddy. No, I'm not accusing
Smoltz of juicing, but he's been dominant as a #1 starter the last
couple of years and Clemens, Glavine, Maddux et. al have shown us that
modern medicine/training can keep a devoted athlete competitive well
into his 40s. I see no reason to expect John Smoltz to seriously
decline next year.

s/
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