Random observations on 2004 season

Now that the first half is coming to a close, below are some of the
things I've found interesting about the 2004 season thus far:

1) Derek Lowe

Since he became a full-time starter:

2002 48/127 BB/K, 2.58 ERA
2003 72/110 BB/K, 4.47 ERA
2004 38/41 BB/K, 6.02 ERA

Terrible trends. It's one thing to be hit-unlucky, but his BB/K ratio
has deteriorated.


2) Kevin Millar

2001 .314/.374/.557 = .931 OPS
2002 .306/.366/.509 = .875 OPS
2003 .276/.348/.472 = .820 OPS
2004 .268/.346/.387 = .733 OPS

He's killing the Red Sox.


3) One of the interesting questions heading into the season was
whether Jose Guillen could retain his 2003 gains:

2003 .311/.359/.569 = .928 OPS
2004 .294/.361/.495 = .856 OPS

Not bad. And his BB rate is up a little.


4) Jaret Wright has already pitched more innings than he has in 5
years. His line:

92 IP, 94 H, 6 HR, 39 BB, 79 K, 3.72 ERA

But... 10 unearned runs.

Still, a better performance than I'd have expected.


5) Javy Lopez:

2003 .328/.378/.687
2004 .318/.370/.482
career .289/.339/.500


6) Baltimore offense after adding Tejada/Palmeiro/Lopez:

411 runs, 7th in the AL
..267 EqA, 5th in the AL
(pitching: 5.13 ERA, last in the AL)


7) Derek Lee: .304/.378/.517 = .895 OPS
swapped for
Hee Seop Choi .270/.393/.514 = .906 OPS


Esteban Loiza:

2003 226.7 IP, 196 H, 17 HR, 56 BB, 207 K, 2.90 ERA
2004 (projected) 239.7 IP, 251 H, 37 HR, 73 BB, 141 K, 4.37 ERA


9) Paul Konerko

2003 .234/.305/.399 = .704 OPS
2004 .280/.368/.545 = .913 OPS


10) Pat Burrell

2003 .209/.309/.404 = .713 OPS
2004 .279/.390/.489 = .879 OPS


11) Andruw Jones's age-27 season, thus far:

2004 .252/.344/.486 = .831 OPS (projects to 26 HR, 48 2B, 82 BB)


12) Lyle Overbay: projects to 72 doubles.


13) Al Leiter: 76.3 IP, 51 H, 18 R, 18 ER, 7 HR, 2.12 ERA. But 41
BB, 46 K.


14) Jason Giambi:

2002 .314/.435/.598 = 1.033 OPS
2003 .250/.412/.527 = .939 OPS
2004 .238/.377/.460 = .837 OPS


15) Alfonso Soriano

2002 .300/.332/.547 = .879 OPS (.298 Eq)
2003 .290/.338/.525 = .863 OPS (.296 EqA)
2004 .294/.335/.457 = .792 OPS (.271 EqA)

--Ray

"Raymond DiPerna" <rdiperna.DeleteThis@nyc.rr.com> wrote in message
news:4eb640b0.0407051732.6443b13e@posting.google.com...
> Now that the first half is coming to a close, below are some of the
> things I've found interesting about the 2004 season thus far:
>
> 1) Derek Lowe
>
> Since he became a full-time starter:
>
> 2002 48/127 BB/K, 2.58 ERA

The Red Sox should have traded him at this point. I'm surprised more teams
don't try to trade players after fluky good seasons when their trade value
is really high.

> 4) Jaret Wright has already pitched more innings than he has in 5
> years. His line:
>
> 92 IP, 94 H, 6 HR, 39 BB, 79 K, 3.72 ERA
>
> But... 10 unearned runs.
>
> Still, a better performance than I'd have expected.

Mazzone seems to have worked his magic again. He turned a pitcher virtually
any team could have picked up free into a decent 5th starter.

> 5) Javy Lopez:
>
> 2003 .328/.378/.687
> 2004 .318/.370/.482
> career .289/.339/.500

I think the real question is what possessed Javy in 2003 to slug like that?
There really is nothing to explain it...

> Esteban Loiza:
>
> 2003 226.7 IP, 196 H, 17 HR, 56 BB, 207 K, 2.90 ERA
> 2004 (projected) 239.7 IP, 251 H, 37 HR, 73 BB, 141 K, 4.37 ERA

I think most expected him to regress to the mean this year after his monster
year last year. At this point though he definitely seems to have
permanently stepped up his game from the pre-2003 version of Esteban.

> 9) Paul Konerko
>
> 2003 .234/.305/.399 = .704 OPS
> 2004 .280/.368/.545 = .913 OPS

If anyone could have guessed AL comeback player of the year, Konerko was as
good a guess as anyone. Last year just seemed like an anomaly(though
Comiskey seems to be much more of a hitter's park this year than in years
past, helping his numbers).

> 11) Andruw Jones's age-27 season, thus far:
>
> 2004 .252/.344/.486 = .831 OPS (projects to 26 HR, 48 2B, 82 BB)

Andruw's star has fallen so far. He's still a very valuable player but
there has been open talk this year of possibly trading him(before he was
considered untouchable). I think it's clear to everyone that he's lost a
step or two in the outfield and at this point it's abundantly clear he will
never learn to stay away from bad breaking balls behind in the count. If I
were the Braves I'd get the Yankees(or whoever else wants to get in on
Beltran) on the phone and see what they offer for Jones. In a couple of
years it will be much harder to move him and his contract.

> 14) Jason Giambi:
>
> 2002 .314/.435/.598 = 1.033 OPS
> 2003 .250/.412/.527 = .939 OPS
> 2004 .238/.377/.460 = .837 OPS

He seems to have lost a little bat speed. I strongly doubt he will ever put
up MVP numbers again(the A's are lucky they didn't get stuck with his
contract).

> 15) Alfonso Soriano
>
> 2002 .300/.332/.547 = .879 OPS (.298 Eq)
> 2003 .290/.338/.525 = .863 OPS (.296 EqA)
> 2004 .294/.335/.457 = .792 OPS (.271 EqA)

In a year Soriano will be gone from the Rangers, lost to free agency. He
was just the token player they had to accept back to justify to fans for
getting rid of A-Rod(his contract).

--
"They tease me now, telling me it was only a dream. But does it matter
whether it was a dream or reality, if the dream made known to me the
truth?" - Dostoevsky