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I Can *Prove* The Productive Out Is A Stupid Statistic

  
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Chuck Hildebrandt

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Since: Oct 09, 2005
Posts: 154



(Msg. 1) Posted: Sun Aug 22, 2004 12:14 am
Post subject: I Can *Prove* The Productive Out Is A Stupid Statistic
Archived from groups: rec>sport>baseball (more info?)
What team is ranked #1 in Productive Out percentage? The Montreal Expos.

What team is ranked #2 in Productive Out percentage? The Pittsburgh
Pirates.

Are you gonna tell me these are good teams?

Chuck


P.S.: Brought to you by The Productive Out: "The GWRBI of the 21st Century".

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Ima Pseudonym

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Since: Aug 08, 2004
Posts: 744



(Msg. 2) Posted: Sun Aug 22, 2004 12:14 am
Post subject: Re: I Can *Prove* The Productive Out Is A Stupid Statistic [Login to view extended thread Info.]
Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)
On Sun, 22 Aug 2004 00:14:46 GMT, "Chuck Hildebrandt"
<mcmlxi RemoveThis @enteract.com> wrote:

>What team is ranked #1 in Productive Out percentage? The Montreal Expos.
>
>What team is ranked #2 in Productive Out percentage? The Pittsburgh
>Pirates.
>
>Are you gonna tell me these are good teams?

More relevant than whether they are good teams, is that Montreal is
dead last in the league in scoring. Pittsburgh is 12th in the NL in
scoring. It doesn't say much for the importance of Productive Outs,
that they don't seem to help teams to actually score.

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Bob Roman

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Since: Aug 06, 2003
Posts: 30



(Msg. 3) Posted: Sun Aug 22, 2004 9:27 am
Post subject: Re: I Can *Prove* The Productive Out Is A Stupid Statistic [Login to view extended thread Info.]
Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)
Dale Hicks <dgh1138 RemoveThis @yahoo.com> wrote...
> I played around with this using the ASS software, and came up with the
> same results. Using four years' data (1999-2002) and the definition
> from that infamous article, I got:
>
> Correlation with Winning Percentage: 0.0997
> Correlation with Runs Scored: 0.1172

So it's essentially a wash. I think many would have predicted a
negative correlation.

Given the non-relationship between PO and scoring overall, it would
seem there could be contexts when the PO is valuable.

Bob Roman
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Chuck Hildebrandt

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Since: Oct 09, 2005
Posts: 154



(Msg. 4) Posted: Sun Aug 22, 2004 12:28 pm
Post subject: Re: I Can *Prove* The Productive Out Is A Stupid Statistic [Login to view extended thread Info.]
Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)
"Dale Hicks" <dgh1138.TakeThisOut@yahoo.com> wrote in message
news:2oqmvuFdechuU5@uni-berlin.de...
> In article <o7sfi0pdodbalsj3tea28p687l3bk24pmk.TakeThisOut@4ax.com>,
> akrasian.TakeThisOut@nospam.hotmail.com says...
> > On Sun, 22 Aug 2004 00:14:46 GMT, "Chuck Hildebrandt"
> > <mcmlxi.TakeThisOut@enteract.com> wrote:
> >
> > >What team is ranked #1 in Productive Out percentage? The Montreal
Expos.
> > >
> > >What team is ranked #2 in Productive Out percentage? The Pittsburgh
> > >Pirates.
> > >
> > >Are you gonna tell me these are good teams?
> >
> > More relevant than whether they are good teams, is that Montreal is
> > dead last in the league in scoring. Pittsburgh is 12th in the NL in
> > scoring. It doesn't say much for the importance of Productive Outs,
> > that they don't seem to help teams to actually score.
>
> I played around with this using the ASS software, and came up with the
> same results. Using four years' data (1999-2002) and the definition
> from that infamous article, I got:
>
> Correlation with Winning Percentage: 0.0997
> Correlation with Runs Scored: 0.1172
>

Well, like I always say, there's nothing like a good piece of ASS software
to bring perspective to the discussion.
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