Prediction is an inexact science

On Jul 3, 8:42 am, dam wrote:
> On Jul 3, 1:35 am, Steve Casburn wrote:
>
>
>
>
>
> > The Sporting News baseball preview for 2008 had a Top 25 preseason
> > ranking for college baseball teams.
>
> > Here's how the rankings matched up to the "rankings" of the actual
> > College World Series:
>
> > 1. Fresno State     [SN: unranked]
> > 2. Georgia          [SN: unranked]
> > 3. North Carolina   [SN: 5th]
> > 4. Stanford         [SN: unranked]
> > 5. Louisiana State  [SN: 25th]
> >    Miami            [SN: 2nd]
> > 7. Rice             [SN: 14th]
> >    Florida State    [SN: 24th]
>
> > Three of the top four unranked. Two others in the top eight barely
> > ranked.
>
> > That's rank.
>
> > Steve
>
> > --
> >   Steve Casburn
> >     "Shut up he explained" - Ring Lardner, Jr.
>
> We see this every year in every sport. A few hits but mostly misses.
> It continues to amaze me when people get so excited about pre-season
> rankings and such.
>
> dam

I think it's worst in college baseball because the best
players aren't usually playing. That leaves the mid-range guys and
those that are still developing. A couple guys who develop quickly can
turn things around for a team.
 >> Stay informed about: Prediction is an inexact science 

"Steve Casburn" wrote in message

>
>
> The Sporting News baseball preview for 2008 had a Top 25 preseason
> ranking for college baseball teams.
>
> Here's how the rankings matched up to the "rankings" of the actual
> College World Series:
>
> 1. Fresno State [SN: unranked]
> 2. Georgia [SN: unranked]
> 3. North Carolina [SN: 5th]
> 4. Stanford [SN: unranked]
> 5. Louisiana State [SN: 25th]
> Miami [SN: 2nd]
> 7. Rice [SN: 14th]
> Florida State [SN: 24th]
>
>
> Three of the top four unranked. Two others in the top eight barely
> ranked.
>
> That's rank.

Cliche Time:

1)That's why they play the game(s). And,
2) especially for Fresno State. "It ain't over till its over." (Thanks
Yogi)

Heiman

>
>
> Steve
>
>
>
> --
> Steve Casburn
> "Shut up he explained" - Ring Lardner, Jr.
 >> Stay informed about: Prediction is an inexact science 

In article
,
"deemsbill@aol.com" wrote:

> On Jul 3, 8:42 am, dam wrote:
> > On Jul 3, 1:35 am, Steve Casburn wrote:
> >
> > > The Sporting News baseball preview for 2008 had a Top 25 preseason
> > > ranking for college baseball teams.
> >
> > > Here's how the rankings matched up to the "rankings" of the actual
> > > College World Series:
> >
> > > 1. Fresno State     [SN: unranked]
> > > 2. Georgia          [SN: unranked]
> > > 3. North Carolina   [SN: 5th]
> > > 4. Stanford         [SN: unranked]
> > > 5. Louisiana State  [SN: 25th]
> > >    Miami            [SN: 2nd]
> > > 7. Rice             [SN: 14th]
> > >    Florida State    [SN: 24th]
> >
> > > Three of the top four unranked. Two others in the top eight barely
> > > ranked.
> >
> > > That's rank.
> >
> > We see this every year in every sport. A few hits but mostly misses.
> > It continues to amaze me when people get so excited about pre-season
> > rankings and such.
>
> I think it's worst in college baseball because the best
> players aren't usually playing. That leaves the mid-range guys and
> those that are still developing. A couple guys who develop quickly can
> turn things around for a team.

Also, baseball is a tougher game to predict anyway. Consider the
following:

1) Don Larsen wasn't even average as a pitcher. Yet, he threw a perfect
game against the Dodgers in 1956.
2) The Dodgers in 1988 had a team which hit just 99 homers for the
entire season and missed their best offensive player, Kirk Gibson.
Yet, they beat the Oakland A's in five games.

The short series of the College World Series really benefits a team with
an outstanding pitcher.
--
Remove blown from email address to reply.
 >> Stay informed about: Prediction is an inexact science 

2008 was a bad year for everybody. The worst was Baseball America's
pre-season rankings: 13 of the final 25 were unranked in pre-season.
The best was Collegiate Baseball Newspaper's, but "best" is that the
correlation of pre- and final rankings was almost exactly RANDOM (a
coefficient of -0.002).

At least BA and CB had Fresno in the pre-season top 25 (but not top
20) but no ranking had them in the top 25 at the end of the WAC
tournament.

FWIW only one computer ranking I am awaare of had them in the top 20
at season's end, and it isn't a very good one.

Here's a graph of five rankings weekly correlation to their final
rankings:

http://www.rivals.com/uploads/1048/656626.gif
 >> Stay informed about: Prediction is an inexact science 

"Steve Casburn" wrote in message

>
>
> The Sporting News baseball preview for 2008 had a Top 25 preseason
> ranking for college baseball teams.
>
> Here's how the rankings matched up to the "rankings" of the actual
> College World Series:
>
> 1. Fresno State [SN: unranked]


Didn't Fresno St. finish the reg season at number 84 on the RPI?
 >> Stay informed about: Prediction is an inexact science