Pitching is the key...

On Tue, 20 Dec 2005 14:58:36 GMT, "Lee Harris"
<lee.harris4.RemoveThis@virgin.net> quacked:

>
>"hawkny2006" <dickhealy.RemoveThis@yahoo.com> wrote in message
>news:1135083825.259518.245750@g44g2000cwa.googlegroups.com...
>> TEE isn't going to improve upon its starting rotation over the winter.
>> The talent isn't out there this year for them to buy and it is rumored
>> that they have maxed out on $$$ for new talent. The same holds for
>> Baltimore which has shelled out cash for position players. Tampa Bay
>> "may" see some improvement, overall, as their young starters are more
>> experienced and the have jettisoned some of their disappointments.
>> Toronto has made some gains but they still appear to be pretty thin
>> once one gets past the top of their rotation.
>
>whoah, whoah, whoah. They have Halladay, Burnett, Lilly for starters. I
>doubt many teams will be that excited about its 4th and 5th starters. If
>Burnett holds up in the AL, that's already a pretty impressive trio if
>everyone stays healthy - and if we can have the same "if" with Beckett and
>Schilling, then we're also looking good with Beckett, Schilling, Papelbon,
>of course we also have a decent back end at the moment pending any trades of
>Wells, Arroyo, Clement and Wakefield. I think Toronto will be a serious
>player in the AL East in 2006.

The Boston SP is suspect. There are a lot of question marks and no
clear ace. We saw the problem of no ace last year (going from the
luxury of two aces). Still, as you say, there is depth this year,
which we did not have last year. There is a reasonable hope for a
solid starter in Papelbon. And the relief remains very much a question
mark, although again there are some good arms and good possibilities.

You are right that Toronto pitching is good and will create problems
in the ALE. NYY pitching certainly will be better. They had an
uncommon run of injury bad luck last year. That is unlikely to
continue. They "discovered" two pitchers (Small and Chacon) who did
very well for them at the end and are likely to be pretty good again
this year. Chacon is fairly young. If NYY can add a quality CF, they
will again be the favorites.

TB is unlikely to lose 95 games again, nor is it likely to dominate
NYY again. Baltimore had decent pitching in the first half of last
year and fell to injuries (pitching and position players). It has no
depth and is at risk for 2006. That is the strength of the RS ---
depth.

The old RS formula was Pedro and a bunch of interchangeable guys who
collectively could get over .500 with help from the pen after the 5th
inning (with the occasional guy having a good year, e.g., Lowe). That
formula was good enough for best in the division, or at worst 2d. We
have no such luxury now, but we still have depth, which we did not
have last year, due in part to a reluctance to play the rookies early.

<snip>

>
>It's really impossible to say until the team has taken shape. Is Manny going
>to be back? Can they replace him or will they cover the cracks and take big
>prospects and defense ? How about Damon? what about Nixon? who'll platoon
>with Youks at 1st base? Who is the shortstop? I have no doubt we'll be very
>competitive and I think this FO will put a better team out in 2006 than in
>2005, but until we see what they come up with, it's impossible to have any
>kind of feeling for how well they'll do.
>
>I really get the feeling Manny is out this time, in that case, you have to
>hope a Manny-Tejada deal can somehow be worked out - that's the only way the
>Red Sox get anything like value in return, they'd then have to find another
>outfielder and make sure Damon came back. That would look like a decent
>basis for a team. If Manny stays, they may go for defense at short, and
>probably CF too, that might cover enough runs to make up for the offensive
>loss. I'm intrigued by the rumours about guys like Crisp, Reed, Gonzalez
>etc. I think it's very possible that the statheads are getting through now
>and showing that reducing runs conceded is just the same as adding offensive
>runs in terms of winning games. We've definitely been spoiled with our
>lineup, but it's possible that one or two defensive stars could keep up our
>winning run at the cost of offensive output by preventing runs instead.
>
>Bottom line - I think the Red Sox will win the division in 2006
>

Perhaps. I hope you are right. It should be a much more competitive
division, with no team running away with it. We may not have the WC
option this coming year.

If Manny goes, I see little chance of replacing him. I really, really
doubt a Tejada deal. Most of the potential deals are flawed for one
reason or another. I want Manny to return, but I think the front
office wants to move him --- they are not just going through the
motions to show good faith IMHO. We need to wait to see who gets
non-tendered by other teams before we get a good sense of where this
team is going.
--McDuck
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