Pitching to Sammy...

On Wed, 08 Oct 2003 10:10:36 -0500, Paul G. Wenthold wrote:

> While I'm not really a big fan of the intentional walk myself, does
> anyone else find it odd that in an era where teams will intentionally
> walk Barry Bonds if the guy in front of him got close to getting on
> base, that teams keep pitching to Sammy Sosa with 1st base open in the
> 9th inning and a 2 run lead? Florida did it last night, and Atlanta did
> it Saturday. Is Moises Alou _that_ much of a HR threat that they are
> unwilling to take a chance with him as the winning run at the plate, so
> will take their chances with Sosa as the tying run?

Absolutely. Sosa hadn't done squat in the playoffs up to that point,
while Alou was on fire. It was an extremely easy decision, IMO.
--
"Whenever you play next to a great player like Andruw (Jones) it's going
to make you better. Every time I'm out of the game, I watch how he
positions himself and breaks on the ball. Then when I get out there, I
try to play right field like he does center field." - Gary Sheffield

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>While I'm not really a big fan of the intentional walk myself, does
>anyone else find it odd that in an era where teams will intentionally
>walk Barry Bonds if the guy in front of him got close to getting on
>base, that teams keep pitching to Sammy Sosa with 1st base open in the
>9th inning and a 2 run lead? Florida did it last night, and Atlanta did
>it Saturday. Is Moises Alou _that_ much of a HR threat that they are
>unwilling to take a chance with him as the winning run at the plate, so
>will take their chances with Sosa as the tying run?

Well, Alou was 10 for 20 in the NLDS, and had a HR earlier in the game. Sosa
had been struggling. I think I'd rather pitch to Sosa with one runner on than
Alou with two on.
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Tarkus wrote:

> On Wed, 08 Oct 2003 11:25:43 -0500, Paul G. Wenthold wrote:
>
>
>>So apparently the response is "Well, if you look at small sample
>>sizes..."
>
>
> Small sample sizes are very much relevant while they're happening.
> They're only irrelevant when analyzing longterm.

Small sample sizes are irrelevent when used to make predictions, which
is exactly what you folks are suggesting here. To recognize that from
the beginning would be a great start.

What is a better predictor of what Moises Alou will do in his next PA:
his last 100 PAs or his last 20?

paul
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In article <bm19hr$si4$1@mozo.cc.purdue.edu>,
"Paul G. Wenthold" <pgw.DeleteThis@purdue.edu> wrote:

> While I'm not really a big fan of the intentional walk myself, does
> anyone else find it odd that in an era where teams will intentionally
> walk Barry Bonds if the guy in front of him got close to getting on
> base, that teams keep pitching to Sammy Sosa with 1st base open in the
> 9th inning and a 2 run lead? Florida did it last night, and Atlanta did
> it Saturday. Is Moises Alou _that_ much of a HR threat that they are
> unwilling to take a chance with him as the winning run at the plate, so
> will take their chances with Sosa as the tying run?
>
> I just find it odd that Sosa keeps getting pitches to hit in these
> situations. Heck, if nothing else, don't throw him anything good.
>
> We hear managers say "Don't let Barry Bonds beat you." But apparently,
> it is ok if you let Sosa take his whacks?


Sosa couldn't beat the Marlins. He did the most he could do by tying
them, and the Marlins went on to win in extra innings.
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The main difference is that most teams still believe they can get Sosa out
if they correctly execute their pitching strategy to him. While Sosa has
holes in his swing, Bonds has eliminated every consistent way to get him out
in his swing. That's really the main difference between Sosa and Bonds.
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In article <1ptvwo0fcxbie.dlg RemoveThis @tarkus.karnevil9.com>,
Tarkus <karnevil9 RemoveThis @beer.com> wrote:
>On Wed, 08 Oct 2003 10:10:36 -0500, Paul G. Wenthold wrote:

>> While I'm not really a big fan of the intentional walk myself, does
>> anyone else find it odd that in an era where teams will intentionally
>> walk Barry Bonds if the guy in front of him got close to getting on
>> base, that teams keep pitching to Sammy Sosa with 1st base open in the
>> 9th inning and a 2 run lead? Florida did it last night, and Atlanta did
>> it Saturday. Is Moises Alou _that_ much of a HR threat that they are
>> unwilling to take a chance with him as the winning run at the plate, so
>> will take their chances with Sosa as the tying run?

>Absolutely. Sosa hadn't done squat in the playoffs up to that point,
>while Alou was on fire. It was an extremely easy decision, IMO.

Why would those things matter?

---------------------------------------------
David M. Nieporent nieporen RemoveThis @alumni.princeton.edu
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On Wed, 08 Oct 2003 23:01:37 -0400, David Marc Nieporent wrote:

> In article <1ptvwo0fcxbie.dlg.DeleteThis@tarkus.karnevil9.com>,
> Tarkus <karnevil9.DeleteThis@beer.com> wrote:
>
>>Absolutely. Sosa hadn't done squat in the playoffs up to that point,
>>while Alou was on fire. It was an extremely easy decision, IMO.
>
> Why would those things matter?

Although statheads tend to treat players as abstract statistical models,
the fact is, humans have ups and downs, and players are no different.
I'd rather face a guy that's obviously seeing pitches well and hitting
the hell out of them, rather than a guy who is struggling. That it was a
two-run game with a runner on makes it a no-brainer.
--
"I don't think I've ever thrown him a changeup in my career and he's
sitting on it. I think he's from another planet, in my opinion."
- Kent Mercker on Barry Bonds

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On Wed, 08 Oct 2003 19:03:29 GMT, Chris Zabel wrote:

> The main difference is that most teams still believe they can get Sosa out
> if they correctly execute their pitching strategy to him. While Sosa has
> holes in his swing, Bonds has eliminated every consistent way to get him out
> in his swing. That's really the main difference between Sosa and Bonds.

That's only because all the umpires got together and conspired to give
Bonds a tiny strike zone.
--
"You go through The Sporting News for the last 100 years, and you will
find two things are always true. You never have enough pitching, and
nobody ever made money." - MLBPA head Donald Fehr, 1995

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"Tarkus" <karnevil9 RemoveThis @beer.com> wrote in message
news:1rfd9hhbw3n13.dlg@tarkus.karnevil9.com...
> On Wed, 08 Oct 2003 23:01:37 -0400, David Marc Nieporent wrote:
>
> > In article <1ptvwo0fcxbie.dlg RemoveThis @tarkus.karnevil9.com>,
> > Tarkus <karnevil9 RemoveThis @beer.com> wrote:
> >
> >>Absolutely. Sosa hadn't done squat in the playoffs up to that point,
> >>while Alou was on fire. It was an extremely easy decision, IMO.
> >
> > Why would those things matter?
>
> Although statheads tend to treat players as abstract statistical models,
> the fact is, humans have ups and downs, and players are no different.
> I'd rather face a guy that's obviously seeing pitches well and hitting
> the hell out of them, rather than a guy who is struggling. That it was a
> two-run game with a runner on makes it a no-brainer.

Sammy was so *due*, though
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"Paul G. Wenthold" <pgw.RemoveThis@purdue.edu> wrote in message
news:bm19hr$si4$1@mozo.cc.purdue.edu...
> While I'm not really a big fan of the intentional walk myself, does
> anyone else find it odd that in an era where teams will intentionally
> walk Barry Bonds if the guy in front of him got close to getting on
> base, that teams keep pitching to Sammy Sosa with 1st base open in the
> 9th inning and a 2 run lead? Florida did it last night, and Atlanta did
> it Saturday. Is Moises Alou _that_ much of a HR threat that they are
> unwilling to take a chance with him as the winning run at the plate, so
> will take their chances with Sosa as the tying run?
>
> I just find it odd that Sosa keeps getting pitches to hit in these
> situations. Heck, if nothing else, don't throw him anything good.
>
> We hear managers say "Don't let Barry Bonds beat you." But apparently,
> it is ok if you let Sosa take his whacks?
>
> paul

Sosa is nowhere near as disciplined a hitter as Bonds. When you try to give
Bonds bad pitches to hit, he takes them for balls. Sosa chases a lot of
those pitches. Also, Sosa strikes out a great deal. Bonds rarely strikes
out.

For the 2003 regular season, Sosa had 517 AB's and struckout 143 times. He
strikes out almost 28% of the time!

Bonds had 390 AB's and struckout only 58 times. He strikes out less than
15% of the time.

Huge difference! Sometimes, you really need a strikeout to get out of a
jam. Sosa is often a good gamble. You might get burned ... he might
strikeout. That is not a good gamble with Bonds. Even if he doesn't hit a
homer, he is just as likely to rip a double into the gap or just get a hit.
He might even hit a grounder that will score a runner from 3rd with less
than outs. Sosa might just strikeout.

--
David Emerling - Memphis, TN
demerlin(REMOVE_THIS)@midsouth.rr.com
If you want to email me - edit the above email address appropriately.
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In article <1rfd9hhbw3n13.dlg RemoveThis @tarkus.karnevil9.com>,
Tarkus <karnevil9 RemoveThis @beer.com> wrote:
>On Wed, 08 Oct 2003 23:01:37 -0400, David Marc Nieporent wrote:
>> Tarkus <karnevil9 RemoveThis @beer.com> wrote:

>>>Absolutely. Sosa hadn't done squat in the playoffs up to that point,
>>>while Alou was on fire. It was an extremely easy decision, IMO.

>> Why would those things matter?

>Although statheads tend to treat players as abstract statistical models,
>the fact is, humans have ups and downs, and players are no different.

Fine. Does anybody dispute that?

>I'd rather face a guy that's obviously seeing pitches well and hitting
>the hell out of them, rather than a guy who is struggling.

Oops! You're apparently treating players as abstract statistical models.
You think that having good statistics over a few games means you'll have
good statistics in the next game, and vice versa.

A hot or cold streak can reflect some change in ability, either permanent
or temporary. It can also mean _nothing._

---------------------------------------------
David M. Nieporent nieporen RemoveThis @alumni.princeton.edu
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"David Marc Nieporent" <nieporen.TakeThisOut@alumni.princeton.edu> wrote in message
news:nieporen-33DEE0.00042210102003@news.fu-berlin.de...
> In article <MPG.19efe2b5f39c589e989d5c.TakeThisOut@news.cis.dfn.de>,
>
> >I can accept that people can't turn off and
> >on clutchness, but I can't believe that these players are above the human
> >phenomenon of streaks and zones. Esp. when they tell me they experience
> >them.
>
> Except that this is a perfect example, because there's been specific
> research in that area. What people say in terms of how they feel when
> shooting baskets has no correlation with streaks or slumps. There is no
> such thing as the "hot hand" in basketball.
>
In particular, the book describing this research is "How We Know What Isn't
So: The Fallibility of Human Reason in Everyday Life," by Thomas Gilovich.
Perry
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On 10 Oct 2003 13:19:21 GMT, Douglas T. (Doug) Massey wrote:

> Humans want to assign reasons for things. They don't want to believe
> that luck plays a large role in life, so they talk about things like
> clutchness and streakiness and being on fire. But the fact of the
> matter is that most of this effect is just dumb luck. The day-to-day
> variation in a player's ability -- barring some sort of injury or
> illness -- is very small.

So you're saying players' mechanics never change? They do the same exact
things every day, and sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't?
--
"I thought when I grew up, I'd like to be an editorial cartoonist. You
only need one idea a day. But then I decided it'd be better to be a
sports columnist. You don't need any ideas." - Bob Knight

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