Pitcher batting 8th

I have read a sabermetric book entitled "The Book" and it has an entire
section dedicate to optimum batting orders and there is even a section
for the pitcher batting 8th.

The author ran the numbers on this and discovered that theory behind
having a "second" leadoff man batting 9th - works! His final analysis
determines that if the pitcher bats 8th throughout the season, a team
will probably gain a couple extra runs. It is not a significant
advantage, but it is certainly not a disadvantage.

The author runs data through a computer and concludes, "... the cost of
having the pitcher get more PA is indeed more than balanced by having a
half-way decent hitter set the table for the top of the order."

He even investigates what happens if the pitcher moves even further up
the order, 8th, or 7th, etc.

One thing that confused me, however; is the author's conclusion that
putting your worst hitter anywhere but last does not work in AL parks.
Hmmm ...

Anyway, I was wondering if Tony was aware of this analysis when he
decided to start batting the pitcher 8th. Apparently, it is not a new
theory.

David Emerling
Memphis, TN

On Sep 15, 8:32 am, David Emerling <davidemerlingDEL... RemoveThis @gmail.com>
wrote:
> I have read a sabermetric book entitled "The Book" and it has an entire
> section dedicate to optimum batting orders and there is even a section
> for the pitcher batting 8th.
>
> The author ran the numbers on this and discovered that theory behind
> having a "second" leadoff man batting 9th - works! His final analysis
> determines that if the pitcher bats 8th throughout the season, a team
> will probably gain a couple extra runs. It is not a significant
> advantage, but it is certainly not a disadvantage.

Right. Basic point is the difference is almost certain to be in
the noise. I think it more likely to work if you happen to have
an OBP heavy hitter not worthy of batting at the top of the order.
>
> The author runs data through a computer and concludes, "... the cost of
> having the pitcher get more PA is indeed more than balanced by having a
> half-way decent hitter set the table for the top of the order."

And this is a faulty premise. Your number 8 hitter will get around 18
PAs more than your number 9 hitter. But if you have a pinch-hitter
who's better than your worst hitting position player and you don't
plan on pinch-hitting for that position player (and with today's
short bench this can be tricky) that's at minimum a non-issue
and a potential advantage to batting the pitcher 8th.

Of course throw in double-switches, luck of the draw with bunting
opportunities for the pitcher ...

As I said, any losses or gains will be swamped by the noise.

> He even investigates what happens if the pitcher moves even further up
> the order, 8th, or 7th, etc.
>
> One thing that confused me, however; is the author's conclusion that
> putting your worst hitter anywhere but last does not work in AL parks.
> Hmmm ...

AL parks or playing with the DH? Because if it's the latter, then
the probable cause of gain in the NL is a few extra pinch-hitting
opportunities.
>
> Anyway, I was wondering if Tony was aware of this analysis when he
> decided to start batting the pitcher 8th.

This particular study? M for maybe. One of the co-authors of
the book (MGL) worked for the Cardinals for a while. I
think this particular section was mostly Tango's work, but
he'd have known about the broad outline. (And there's nothing
particularly surprising about the conclusion. Pete Palmer
ran some simplistic sims more than two decades ago that
suggested that there wasn't likely to be significant difference
in team runs scored between any sane lineups. Subsequent
more sophisticated sims have produced essentially the same
results)

> Apparently, it is not a new theory.
>
Well LaRussa had done it before, but I'm pretty sure you know this.

Casey Stengel is supposed to have batted the pitcher 7th from time to
time
but not for any grand purpose.

He did it to send a message to the guys he'd moved down.

In 1957 he batted Don Larsen 7th or 8th several times.
(generally in front of Coleman or Richardson and either
Kubek or the backup catcher)

He's supposed to have done the same with Tommy Byrne in the early 50s.