"Kurgan Gringioni." <kgringioni.TakeThisOut@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:387820f3-04d5-47ec-8586-c577f3590c27@u12g2000prd.googlegroups.com...
On Jun 17, 2:07 pm, "K2" <K2Pad....TakeThisOut@padres.net> wrote:
> "Padredog" <padredo....TakeThisOut@gmail.com> wrote in message
>
> news:4e3bb6ef-9e98-48fc-9b6a-ff93c2b18c8d@z16g2000prn.googlegroups.com...
>
> > MLB.com's scouting report said Dykstra is a 1/2 step behind behind
> > elite players at this position and would have to wait for other 1st
> > baseman to go off the board before being picked, but the wait shouldnt
> > be too long. One disturbing part of the scouting report? Base running:
> > It's not really a part of his game.
>
> That only means that he's not fast and isn't going to be a base stealing
> threat.
> Considering that the Alderson philosophy of building a team places OBP and
> power well ahead of the stolen base (which is still a nice weapon to have
> in
> the arsenal, but a secondary one in his system), he was probably seen as
> fitting nicely into the style of play Alderson is trying to foster
> throughout the system.
> An on-base rate of .400 or thereabouts and a power stroke is the prototype
> Alderson player.
========================================================
How does the declining home run totals in MLB (since the advent of
drug testing) fit into his equation?
There's gonna be about 2000 less homers in 2008 than there were in
2006. That's significant.
========================================================
Well, that's not quite true...
In 2006, there were a total of 5386 HR's in both leagues.
In 2007, it dropped to 4957.
Thus far in the 2008 season, there are 2111, which if projected at the same
rate across a full season would bring us roughly 4736.
That's a drop of 650 from 2006 and only 221 lower than 2007.
Considering that it hasn't been unusual for the HR total in each league to
fluctuate by 100 or more points up or down from season to season, a change
of around 200 from season to season isn't really that unusual.
In the American League alone, there was a jump of 390 from 1994 to 1995, and
an even bigger jump of 568 from 1995 to 1996... which may, *may* mind you...
herald the beginning of the widespread use of steroids.
In the National League, the 1994-5 seasons gave us a rise of 385, and 1995-6
went up 303. And those aren't even the big jumps... 1997-1998 provided a
leap of 402, followed by another 328 in 1998-9.
The drop we've seen in recent years probably reflects the players' response
to the crackdown on steroids. It will probably stabilize in a couple of
years, and then resume the typical fluctuation of from 50 to 100 from year
to year.
The power game is still significant enough that the OBP/SLG philosophy of
Alderson et.al. should still remain a viable approach to the game.
Also consider that while HR's have been falling in the last few years,
doubles and triples have increased markedly as many of those balls that once
sailed over the walls are now bouncing off of them. It's still the power
game... just ratcheted down a notch.
>> Stay informed about: Padres Draft Allan Dykstra - power hitting lefty 
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