Minor league trade

"McDuck" <wallyDELETEMEMcDuck.DeleteThis@comcast.net> wrote in message
news:m406939b03rsqs4uktu672in8jhgpne0o0@4ax.com...
> On Mon, 9 Jul 2007 18:36:38 -0400, "Dano" <janeanddano.DeleteThis@yahoo.com>
> wrote:
>
> >
> >"McDuck" <wallyDELETEMEMcDuck.DeleteThis@comcast.net> wrote in message
> >news:fuc593t8emnrnoqm466eht857uhr8tr28g@4ax.com...
> >> On Mon, 9 Jul 2007 16:54:51 -0400, "Dano" <janeanddano.DeleteThis@yahoo.com>
> >> wrote:
> >>
> >>
> >>>
> >>>Jacoby has an average arm by most accounts. He is still an excellent
> >>>defender, and with his speed and always great OBP should be a great
> >>>leadoff
> >>>hitter. All he seems to lack is power. With his speed, that's not
such a
> >>>big deal. He'll accumulate plenty of bases on the ground.
> >>
> >> I don't know much about Upton. Didn't know that much about Mickey
> >> Mantle or Al Kaline befreo they came up. But being really, really good
> >> at a young age is a fairly reliable sign of greatness (absent setbacks
> >> from injury etc.). Of course, all minor leaguers, even phenoms, have
> >> some risk. I'd say more for pitchers than for outfielders.
> >
> >So are you suggesting that Ellsbury wasn't really, really good at a young
> >age? I know he's sooo much older now...practically ancient. Too bad he
> >wasted those years in college.
> >
>
> I don't know how good Ellsbury was at 19. But being as good as Upton
> is at 19 is really, really rare, so I think people would have heard
> more of Ellsbury some time ago if he were that good at 19.

Upton, Smupton. How good was Ken Griffey Jr at 19? How good was Tony
Conigliaro? Robin Yount?

On Jul 10, 12:19 pm, "Dano" <janeandd... DeleteThis @yahoo.com> wrote:
> "Keith Willoughby" <k... DeleteThis @flat222.org> wrote in message
>
> news:87k5t88bzg.fsf@flat222.dyndns.org...
>
> > "Dano" <janeandd... DeleteThis @yahoo.com> writes:
>
> >> "McDuck" <wallyDELETEMEMcD... DeleteThis @comcast.net> wrote in message
> >>news:m406939b03rsqs4uktu672in8jhgpne0o0@4ax.com...
> >>> I don't know how good Ellsbury was at 19. But being as good as Upton
> >>> is at 19 is really, really rare, so I think people would have heard
> >>> more of Ellsbury some time ago if he were that good at 19.
>
> >> I suspect a few people noticed Ellsbury, when at 19, he hit .330 with
> >> a .510 OBP...7 HRs and 33 RBI in 53 games and 206 ABs for Oregon
> >> State...
>
> > With aluminium bats, against weaker-than-AA opposition.
>
> Hmmm...how the hell does the material the bat is made from effect his
> average, OBP, speed and defense? I have gone out of my way to pointing out
> his one apparent flaw...lack of power.
>

Pitchers routinely shy away from pitching inside. And I think we can
agree more than a few hitters benefit from not being exact with the
sweet spot in terms of point of contact (Plenty of pitches that
would've shattered a wooden bat end up being flare singles). This is
the big reason why MLB scouts attend Cape Cod games in droves. It's
the biggest (and for many collegiate players the first) opportunity to
watch them hit with wooden bats. The biggest question that many teams
have is how soon a top prospect can make the adjustment from aluminum
to wooden bat.


> >> but maybe you know better.
>
> > I'd say so, yes.
>
> > If a prospect is doing well at AA at age 19, he's a super-prospect. If
> > he's doing well in college at 19, then that's hardly remarkable, is it?
> > Many kids do.
>
>
> Then why are they so sought after?
>

I'm not sure what you mean. Most of the kids who do well in top
conferences do not succeed at AA the first time. Even top collegiate
draftees do not have comparable numbers at upper A (They usually start
here). And they tend to be 21 or 22. Two years at that age is a huge
gap developmentally.


> Here are some names off the top of my head. Nomar Garciaparra...Jason
> Varitek...Dustin Pedroia...
>
> College is just another path. A pretty smart one IMO, in some cases.


I agree but there is just no comparison between Upton and Ellsbury.
I've regarded Ellsbury very highly (in fact Dave and I agreed last
year that he probably would be ready this season). However, Upton
seems to be a very rare talent. McDuck is closer to the mark when he
noted that brilliance at young age is probably a better predictor of
future performance in the majors. Age relative to level of
competition is akin to margin of safety for many player evaluators.
PAC is a good conference but it's nowhere near AA.