"powrwrap" <powrwrap.DeleteThis@aol.com> wrote in message
news:bf5868b0-7b8a-4a91-8403-6d70d2fd09ea@k13g2000hse.googlegroups.com...
> On May 8, 9:15 am, brianj <firstp....DeleteThis@turtlecreek.net> wrote:
> I will admit that I was unimpressed when the Twins signed Hernandez.
> I had visions of the whole Ponson/Ortiz debacle. I am kind of
> starting to think he's going to be OK. He got roughed up a time or
> two, but man, in his last two starts he is 2-0, with an ERA of 1.13,
> with 7 SO and 3 walks. He already has almost as many wins (5) as
> Ponson and Ortiz together had last year (6), and far fewer losses (1
> for Livo and 9 for the other two).
> You have to wonder how long batters will be fooled by his pitches.
I agree with everything you say, except:
"I am kind of starting to think he's going to be OK."
Could you elaborate on what "OK" means?
Does it mean a league average ERA of 4.20?
Or would going 14-12 with an ERA of 4.50 be OK?
Or what?
--------------------------------
FWIW, I'll gladly take league average ERA given his propensity to stay
healthy and eat innings... gladly! Even 4.50, 200-220 IP would be *huge*.
And there would be absolutely no shame in a 14-12 record, especially with
this offense.
Players with that kind of durability and relatively good performance are
actually pretty rare in MLB. Most guys just break down, of course, or just
aren't good enough to get enough IP.
Combining his hoped-for 14-12 record with (presumably) a continuing trend of
the Twins bullpen having a good W/L record, that would be a formula for the
Twins winning around 55-60% of his starts. On the high end of that
projection, that would project to a 97-win team, which is insane for the
level of talent the Twins have, IMO.
brink
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