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Livan Hernandez

 
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brianj

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Since: May 17, 2007
Posts: 231



(Msg. 1) Posted: Thu May 08, 2008 7:15 am
Post subject: Livan Hernandez
Archived from groups: alt>sports>baseball>mn-twins (more info?)

I will admit that I was unimpressed when the Twins signed Hernandez.
I had visions of the whole Ponson/Ortiz debacle. I am kind of
starting to think he's going to be OK. He got roughed up a time or
two, but man, in his last two starts he is 2-0, with an ERA of 1.13,
with 7 SO and 3 walks. He already has almost as many wins (5) as
Ponson and Ortiz together had last year (6), and far fewer losses (1
for Livo and 9 for the other two).

You have to wonder how long batters will be fooled by his pitches. I
mean they certainly had no answer for him this week or last, but he is
pretty unorthodox. That slow curve reminds me of a sucker pitch my
brother used to throw me for an out pitch. It was this big high
arching pitch that was going so slow I just couldn't lay off it. But
it was just about impossible to hit, because by the time it got to the
plate it was falling almost vertically.

brianj

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powrwrap

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Since: May 18, 2007
Posts: 420



(Msg. 2) Posted: Thu May 08, 2008 7:45 am
Post subject: Re: Livan Hernandez [Login to view extended thread Info.]
Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)

> On May 8, 9:15 am, brianj <firstp....TakeThisOut@turtlecreek.net> wrote:

> I will admit that I was unimpressed when the Twins signed Hernandez.
> I had visions of the whole Ponson/Ortiz debacle.  I am kind of
> starting to think he's going to be OK.  He got roughed up a time or
> two, but man, in his last two starts he is 2-0, with an ERA of 1.13,
> with 7 SO and 3 walks.  He already has almost as many wins (5) as
> Ponson and Ortiz together had last year (6), and far fewer losses (1
> for Livo and 9 for the other two).

> You have to wonder how long batters will be fooled by his pitches.

I agree with everything you say, except:

"I am kind of starting to think he's going to be OK."

Could you elaborate on what "OK" means?

Does it mean a league average ERA of 4.20?

Or would going 14-12 with an ERA of 4.50 be OK?

Or what?

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brianj

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Since: May 17, 2007
Posts: 231



(Msg. 3) Posted: Thu May 08, 2008 11:29 am
Post subject: Re: Livan Hernandez [Login to view extended thread Info.]
Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)

On May 8, 9:45 am, powrwrap <powrw... DeleteThis @aol.com> wrote:
> > On May 8, 9:15 am, brianj <firstp... DeleteThis @turtlecreek.net> wrote:
> > I will admit that I was unimpressed when the Twins signed Hernandez.
> > I had visions of the whole Ponson/Ortiz debacle.  I am kind of
> > starting to think he's going to be OK.  He got roughed up a time or
> > two, but man, in his last two starts he is 2-0, with an ERA of 1.13,
> > with 7 SO and 3 walks.  He already has almost as many wins (5) as
> > Ponson and Ortiz together had last year (6), and far fewer losses (1
> > for Livo and 9 for the other two).
> > You have to wonder how long batters will be fooled by his pitches.
>
> I agree with everything you say, except:
>
> "I am kind of starting to think he's going to be OK."
>
> Could you elaborate on what "OK" means?
>
> Does it mean a league average ERA of 4.20?
>
> Or would going 14-12 with an ERA of 4.50 be OK?
>
> Or what?

You wouldn't guess it, but I was origianly going to say that I was
starting to think Hernandez was for real. I thought that was too
vague, so I said I thought he's be OK, which is about as vague, I
admit. I hadn't really thought about what exactly that means, but now
that I have, I would say something like what brink said. If he stays
healthy (and his record in that regard is stellar) and can pitch a
couple of hundred innings to a 4.00 ERA, I think I would be very
happy. I think even league average or close to it would be OK (is
league average really 4.50?). At least it would be a lot more OK than
last year's failed experiments.

brianj
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brink

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Since: Sep 10, 2007
Posts: 165



(Msg. 4) Posted: Thu May 08, 2008 11:41 am
Post subject: Re: Livan Hernandez [Login to view extended thread Info.]
Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)

"powrwrap" <powrwrap.DeleteThis@aol.com> wrote in message
news:bf5868b0-7b8a-4a91-8403-6d70d2fd09ea@k13g2000hse.googlegroups.com...
> On May 8, 9:15 am, brianj <firstp....DeleteThis@turtlecreek.net> wrote:

> I will admit that I was unimpressed when the Twins signed Hernandez.
> I had visions of the whole Ponson/Ortiz debacle. I am kind of
> starting to think he's going to be OK. He got roughed up a time or
> two, but man, in his last two starts he is 2-0, with an ERA of 1.13,
> with 7 SO and 3 walks. He already has almost as many wins (5) as
> Ponson and Ortiz together had last year (6), and far fewer losses (1
> for Livo and 9 for the other two).

> You have to wonder how long batters will be fooled by his pitches.

I agree with everything you say, except:

"I am kind of starting to think he's going to be OK."

Could you elaborate on what "OK" means?

Does it mean a league average ERA of 4.20?

Or would going 14-12 with an ERA of 4.50 be OK?

Or what?

--------------------------------

FWIW, I'll gladly take league average ERA given his propensity to stay
healthy and eat innings... gladly! Even 4.50, 200-220 IP would be *huge*.
And there would be absolutely no shame in a 14-12 record, especially with
this offense.

Players with that kind of durability and relatively good performance are
actually pretty rare in MLB. Most guys just break down, of course, or just
aren't good enough to get enough IP.

Combining his hoped-for 14-12 record with (presumably) a continuing trend of
the Twins bullpen having a good W/L record, that would be a formula for the
Twins winning around 55-60% of his starts. On the high end of that
projection, that would project to a 97-win team, which is insane for the
level of talent the Twins have, IMO.

brink
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