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Jonathan Bernstein

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Since: Jun 13, 2005
Posts: 777



(Msg. 1) Posted: Sun Aug 10, 2008 3:19 am
Post subject: Impressive
Archived from groups: alt>sports>baseball>sf-giants (more info?)

The Giants, through Friday's game, have 64 HRs. The last NL team in a
full season to fall below 100 HRs were the expansion Fish in 1993.

However, Florida did manage 94 HRs, which is still a bit better than the
Giants pace to date. Fortunately, we don't have to go back far to find
a lower number -- not only did three NL teams end up in the 90s in 1992,
but the Dodgers managed to hit only 72 HRs.

Here's another one: we have a lot of parity in MLB these days. OPS+ is
park-adjusted OBP+SLG, and the Giants are actually in 2nd to last place
in the NL, at 85 to the Nats 84 (again through Friday). No team has
finished below 90 since 2004, when three teams did it, including the
DBacks at 82. If they can get below that, though, the next target is
those same Florida Marlins, with an 80 in 1993. The Cardinals managed
an 82 in 1986; the Braves posted an 83 in 1977, and the Expos an 82 in
1976. The expansion Expos reached 81 in 1969. Then it's the early
Mets, with an 83 in 1967, but a truly awesome 78 in 1965. I just looked
at the NL...it would take a pretty impressive slump to make it down to
80, but anything under 84 is rare, and that wouldn't take too much.

More OPS+. The Giants finished at 89 last year. Two years in a row
under 90? The Pirates did it in 2001-2002 (88/84). The Braves did it
in 1988 and 1989 (barely, 87/89). The Cubs did it in 1980-81, with 1981
a strike year (87/86). Then in the 70s, the Cubs did it again, but the
Braves managed an astonishing four years in a row, 1975-1978.

(No, it's not the same. Aaron was gone from the Braves *after* 1974;
Bonds was still on the Giants when they got started in 2007).

Good work, Sabean!

JHB

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Awesome Lincecum

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Since: Aug 06, 2007
Posts: 998



(Msg. 2) Posted: Sun Aug 10, 2008 3:19 am
Post subject: Re: Impressive [Login to view extended thread Info.]
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"Jonathan Bernstein" <jhb RemoveThis @socrates.berkeley.edu> wrote in message
news:Xns9AF5EDEF776F9jhbsocratesberkeleye@207.115.33.102...
> The Giants, through Friday's game, have 64 HRs. The last NL team in a
> full season to fall below 100 HRs were the expansion Fish in 1993.

Well, they only need 9 more HRs to tie Bonds' 73. Takes 25 guys to beat one
person. Smile

When I saw the subject line, I was thinking, "hmm... did Lincecum pitch last
night? Nope, it was Zito. OK, that must be sarcasm." Smile

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James Farrar

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Since: Oct 20, 2005
Posts: 434



(Msg. 3) Posted: Sun Aug 10, 2008 2:12 pm
Post subject: Re: Impressive [Login to view extended thread Info.]
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On Sat, 9 Aug 2008 23:13:34 -0700, "Awesome Lincecum"
<Lincecum RemoveThis @sf.giants> wrote:

>
>"Jonathan Bernstein" <jhb RemoveThis @socrates.berkeley.edu> wrote in message
>news:Xns9AF5EDEF776F9jhbsocratesberkeleye@207.115.33.102...
>> The Giants, through Friday's game, have 64 HRs. The last NL team in a
>> full season to fall below 100 HRs were the expansion Fish in 1993.
>
>Well, they only need 9 more HRs to tie Bonds' 73. Takes 25 guys to beat one
>person. Smile

Twenty-five Marvin Benards...
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Jonathan Bernstein

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Since: Jun 13, 2005
Posts: 777



(Msg. 4) Posted: Sun Aug 10, 2008 4:27 pm
Post subject: Re: Impressive [Login to view extended thread Info.]
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"Awesome Lincecum" <Lincecum DeleteThis @sf.giants> wrote in
news:6g7f8dFej9i8U1@mid.individual.net:

>
> "Jonathan Bernstein" <jhb DeleteThis @socrates.berkeley.edu> wrote in message
> news:Xns9AF5EDEF776F9jhbsocratesberkeleye@207.115.33.102...
>> The Giants, through Friday's game, have 64 HRs. The last NL team in
>> a full season to fall below 100 HRs were the expansion Fish in 1993.
>
> Well, they only need 9 more HRs to tie Bonds' 73. Takes 25 guys to
> beat one person. Smile
>
> When I saw the subject line, I was thinking, "hmm... did Lincecum
> pitch last night? Nope, it was Zito. OK, that must be sarcasm." Smile

Something like that.

I didn't bother with R/G, since the Giants are still third from the
bottom there, but all three teams would be the first under 4.00 since
the '05 Nats. The '04 RBacks finished at 3.80. But none of them are
going to catch the 2003 Dodgers at 3.54, in a league that averaged 4.61
-- the Nats are last now at 3.76, in a league that's at 4.51 R/G.

JHB
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Jonathan Bernstein

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Since: Jun 13, 2005
Posts: 777



(Msg. 5) Posted: Tue Aug 12, 2008 3:14 am
Post subject: Re: Impressive [Login to view extended thread Info.]
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Jonathan Bernstein <jhb DeleteThis @socrates.berkeley.edu> wrote in
news:Xns9AF5EDEF776F9jhbsocratesberkeleye@207.115.33.102:

> The Giants, through Friday's game, have 64 HRs. The last NL team in a
> full season to fall below 100 HRs were the expansion Fish in 1993.
>
> However, Florida did manage 94 HRs, which is still a bit better than
> the Giants pace to date. Fortunately, we don't have to go back far to
> find a lower number -- not only did three NL teams end up in the 90s
> in 1992, but the Dodgers managed to hit only 72 HRs.

Over the last 50 games through Monday night in Houston, the Giants have
hit 16 HRs.

First the Giants, through 117 games, are on a pace to hit about 89 HRs,
which would be the worst in the NL since 1992.

But if they keep the recent (50 games) pace, they'll wind up with 78 or
79 HRs. Still not as bad as the 1992 Dodgers, but pretty damn bad.

Of course, what would really be impressive is if they had managed that
16HR/50G pace all year. That's about 52 HRs, and no one goes that low.
The last NL team in that territory was the 1979 Astros, with 49 HRs.

JHB
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