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Since: Apr 15, 2005 Posts: 7
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(Msg. 1) Posted: Fri Apr 15, 2005 5:50 pm
Post subject: Importance (or not) of Fielding Ability Archived from groups: rec>sport>baseball (more info?)
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Billy Bean opined (cited in "Moneyball," among other places) that he
wanted to get guys on his team who could hit--he'd worry about their
lack of fielding skill later (or something like that). He obviously
bought into the argument (by Eric Allen?) that most batted balls can be
fielded by nearly everyone of adequate skill or they cannot be fielded
by anyone. Thus the effective difference between a great fielder and
an average one is far less important for team victories than the
corresponding difference in hitting ability.
Others have held similar dismissive views of fielding. Davey Johnson,
for example, when managing the Mets, would occasionally insert regular
3Bman Howard Johnson at SS when "fly-ball" pitcher Sid Fernandez was on
the mound. He thought Johnson's bat outweighed his lack of range at SS.
And yet I am not persuaded that fielding is of as little consequence as
many think it is. I have two concerns and two questions:
(1) All hitters make more outs than they hit safely (although a rare
few manage to get on base more than half of their plate appearances)
and hitters who hit less than, say, .220 don't hang around for long. So
I argue that the effective difference in hitting [arbitrarily,.320 -
..220 = .100, or any other metric] is of similar unimportance.
(2) Observing baseball games reveals that "big innings" are often (I do
not know how often)aided by defensive miscues that may (an error) or
may not (e.g., a throw to the wrong base or the failure of an infielder
to get to a not-hard-hit ground ball) be officially recorded as such.
Since sabermetricians already know how valuable outs are, it just make
sense that helping to accumulate them by superior fielding is of
greater value to a team than many today suspect it to be. I once
calculated that Ozzie Smith, at his peak, made one more play per game
than an average NL SS (I know this is confounded with pitching staff
and home field conditions). That difference, if atributable solely to
Smith's fielding, would correspond to a run saving of about .70 runs
per game (linear weights difference of preventing a single (-.46 plus
converting that to an out, -.25 = -.71), or a savings of -115 runs if
Smith played every game.
Two questions:
(1) Does Bill James's Win Share method shed any light at all on the
importance (or not) of fielding?
(2) Where am I going wrong in feeling that fielding is more important
than Bean and others in the business think it is?
Thanks,
JM >> Stay informed about: Importance (or not) of Fielding Ability |
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Since: Aug 08, 2004 Posts: 744
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(Msg. 2) Posted: Fri Apr 15, 2005 7:04 pm
Post subject: Re: Importance (or not) of Fielding Ability [Login to view extended thread Info.] Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)
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On 15 Apr 2005 17:50:19 -0700, "berrafan"
<jimmcmartinphd DeleteThis @adelphia.net> wrote:
>Billy Bean opined (cited in "Moneyball," among other places) that he
>wanted to get guys on his team who could hit--he'd worry about their
>lack of fielding skill later (or something like that). He obviously
>bought into the argument (by Eric Allen?) that most batted balls can be
>fielded by nearly everyone of adequate skill or they cannot be fielded
>by anyone. Thus the effective difference between a great fielder and
>an average one is far less important for team victories than the
>corresponding difference in hitting ability.
Don't take Moneyball as gospel of what Beane believes. A significant
number of the moves Beane has made over the past few seasons have been
to improve defense. >> Stay informed about: Importance (or not) of Fielding Ability |
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Since: Aug 17, 2004 Posts: 30
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(Msg. 3) Posted: Fri Apr 15, 2005 10:24 pm
Post subject: Re: Importance (or not) of Fielding Ability [Login to view extended thread Info.] Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)
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In rec.sport.baseball on Fri, 15 Apr 2005 19:04:20 -0700 Ima Pseudonym
wrote:
>On 15 Apr 2005 17:50:19 -0700, "berrafan"
><jimmcmartinphd DeleteThis @adelphia.net> wrote:
>
>>Billy Bean opined (cited in "Moneyball," among other places) that he
>>wanted to get guys on his team who could hit--he'd worry about their
>>lack of fielding skill later (or something like that). He obviously
>>bought into the argument (by Eric Allen?) that most batted balls can be
>>fielded by nearly everyone of adequate skill or they cannot be fielded
>>by anyone. Thus the effective difference between a great fielder and
>>an average one is far less important for team victories than the
>>corresponding difference in hitting ability.
>
>Don't take Moneyball as gospel of what Beane believes. A significant
>number of the moves Beane has made over the past few seasons have been
>to improve defense.
Isn't it funny how everyone has a slightly different take on the Moneyball
"message"?
For me it was that defense was overvalued, not that it was unimportant.
(Similarly, walks were undervalued, not that they were important in and of
themselves.) So since the publishing of the book, it could be that the
pendulum has swung, and it is now defense that is undervalued.
--
all the best,
ed
Epitome:
Nice kid, but about as sharp as a sack of wet mice.
Email:
edkupfer. It's a gmail addy. >> Stay informed about: Importance (or not) of Fielding Ability |
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Since: Sep 23, 2005 Posts: 552
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(Msg. 4) Posted: Fri Apr 15, 2005 10:40 pm
Post subject: Re: Importance (or not) of Fielding Ability [Login to view extended thread Info.] Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)
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"igor eduardo küpfer" <edkupfer.RemoveThis@example.com> wrote in message
news:gkt0615qlue58isq10820cvthsa1f1hk9i@4ax.com...
> In rec.sport.baseball on Fri, 15 Apr 2005 19:04:20 -0700 Ima Pseudonym
> wrote:
>
>>On 15 Apr 2005 17:50:19 -0700, "berrafan"
>><jimmcmartinphd.RemoveThis@adelphia.net> wrote:
>>
>>>Billy Bean opined (cited in "Moneyball," among other places) that he
>>>wanted to get guys on his team who could hit--he'd worry about their
>>>lack of fielding skill later (or something like that). He obviously
>>>bought into the argument (by Eric Allen?) that most batted balls can be
>>>fielded by nearly everyone of adequate skill or they cannot be fielded
>>>by anyone. Thus the effective difference between a great fielder and
>>>an average one is far less important for team victories than the
>>>corresponding difference in hitting ability.
>>
>>Don't take Moneyball as gospel of what Beane believes. A significant
>>number of the moves Beane has made over the past few seasons have been
>>to improve defense.
>
> Isn't it funny how everyone has a slightly different take on the Moneyball
> "message"?
>
> For me it was that defense was overvalued, not that it was unimportant.
bingo. it's like saying "i think the housing market is overvalued" means
saying "having a home is unimportant."
it's strictly a statement on priorities and the difference between perceived
and actual value.
> (Similarly, walks were undervalued, not that they were important in and of
> themselves.) So since the publishing of the book, it could be that the
> pendulum has swung, and it is now defense that is undervalued.
that and the ability to steal bases, bunt, manufacture runs, etc.
though i've yet to find a baseball TV or radio color analyst who does
anything but exalt baserunning, bunting, manufacturing, "doing the little
things" as the *ultimate* mark of winning baseball. can't get much
overrated than that...
brink >> Stay informed about: Importance (or not) of Fielding Ability |
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Since: Apr 06, 2005 Posts: 622
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(Msg. 5) Posted: Sat Apr 16, 2005 2:45 pm
Post subject: Re: Importance (or not) of Fielding Ability [Login to view extended thread Info.] Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)
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In article <1113612619.849804.174110.DeleteThis@g14g2000cwa.googlegroups.com>,
jimmcmartinphd.DeleteThis@adelphia.net says...
>
> (2) Observing baseball games reveals that "big innings" are often (I do
> not know how often)aided by defensive miscues that may (an error) or
> may not (e.g., a throw to the wrong base or the failure of an infielder
> to get to a not-hard-hit ground ball) be officially recorded as such.
> Since sabermetricians already know how valuable outs are, it just make
> sense that helping to accumulate them by superior fielding is of
> greater value to a team than many today suspect it to be. I once
> calculated that Ozzie Smith, at his peak, made one more play per game
> than an average NL SS (I know this is confounded with pitching staff
> and home field conditions). That difference, if atributable solely to
> Smith's fielding, would correspond to a run saving of about .70 runs
> per game (linear weights difference of preventing a single (-.46 plus
> converting that to an out, -.25 = -.71), or a savings of -115 runs if
> Smith played every game.
>
> Two questions:
> (1) Does Bill James's Win Share method shed any light at all on the
> importance (or not) of fielding?
Not really - he kind of made it up as he went along.
> (2) Where am I going wrong in feeling that fielding is more important
> than Bean and others in the business think it is?
Your estimate of chances. We don't have to rely on the horrific
range factor now that every single hit ball is recorded and charted
and plotted. And there's just no way even Ozzie, one of the absolute
finest defensive players ever, even approached a saved hit per game.
--
Dan Szymborski
dan.DeleteThis@baseballprimerREMOVE.com
"A critic who refuses to attack what is bad is not
a whole-hearted supporter of what is good."
- Robert Schumann >> Stay informed about: Importance (or not) of Fielding Ability |
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Since: Apr 15, 2005 Posts: 7
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(Msg. 6) Posted: Sat Apr 16, 2005 8:38 pm
Post subject: Re: Importance (or not) of Fielding Ability [Login to view extended thread Info.] Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)
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Craig Richardson <crichard-tac... DeleteThis @worldnet.att.net> wrote
<<More generally, the impact of defense is something we can't judge by
eye. Once we allow for the common "SportsCenter" distortions, we can
judge to a fair degree who is a better fielder strictly through
observation, but there is no way to translate that observation to a
number of runs saved. Defense is one area in which, IMO, scouting and
analysis must both be used to their fullest. Scouting to give a
first-order ranking, and analysis to tell the magnitude of the
difference between players, and exactly how to trade off defense
against offense. >>
But if we cannot translate our fielding observations into the number of
runs saved per game, then how could analysts tell exactly how to trade
off offense against defense? What metric would they use?
JM >> Stay informed about: Importance (or not) of Fielding Ability |
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Since: Aug 08, 2004 Posts: 744
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(Msg. 7) Posted: Sat Apr 16, 2005 8:43 pm
Post subject: Re: Importance (or not) of Fielding Ability [Login to view extended thread Info.] Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)
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On 17 Apr 2005 10:36:15 +0800, Realto Margarino <rm DeleteThis @justlinux.nope.ca>
wrote:
>Craig Richardson <crichard-tacoma DeleteThis @worldnet.att.net> trolled:
>
>> Precisely. For me, _Moneyball_ was saying "at this point in
>> history, MLB GMs are overvaluing defense and speed, so I'll focus
>> on walks and power". The _Moneyball_ philosophy isn't "I'll
>> stockpile guys who walk a lot" or even "I'll stockpile guys who
>> statheads like", but "I don't have a lot of money, so I have to
>> focus on guys who are systematically undervalued, and can produce
>> the maximum wins per dollar invested". And /that/ is the pattern
>> to Beane's moves - he goes for guys who either have flaws, but
>> strengths that counter them, or guys whose strengths go unnoticed.
>
>And can you name one manager that doesn't think this way? No, you
>can't. But it makes you feel nice and superior, doesn't it?
>
>Every GM at the MLB level has forgotten more about baseball than
>Bill James' computers will ever know.
The irony of this is that Bill James is Senior Baseball Operations
Advisor for the defending World Series Champion Red Sox.
So apparently one exceptionally successful GM believes that Bill James
knows a tremendous amount about baseball.
It just drives you crazier, I bet. >> Stay informed about: Importance (or not) of Fielding Ability |
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Since: Aug 27, 2003 Posts: 1062
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(Msg. 8) Posted: Sun Apr 17, 2005 4:04 am
Post subject: Re: Importance (or not) of Fielding Ability [Login to view extended thread Info.] Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)
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Ima Pseudonym <akrasian.TakeThisOut@nospam.hotmail.com> writes:
>>Every GM at the MLB level has forgotten more about baseball than
>>Bill James' computers will ever know.
>The irony of this is that Bill James is Senior Baseball Operations
>Advisor for the defending World Series Champion Red Sox.
>So apparently one exceptionally successful GM believes that Bill James
>knows a tremendous amount about baseball.
Depending on how you interpret the word "know" his statement is either
self-evidently true or self-evidently false. If you believe that
intelligence is necessary for knowledge, then Bill James's computers,
being uninteligent, don't know anything, so anyone who has ever known
anything about baseball knows more than they do. If you accept that
computers can "know" something by being stuffed full of numbers, then Bill
James's computers undoubtedly know more about baseball than anyone who
hasn't memorized the Baseball Encyclopedia, since they contain the
statistical record for every major league player in history.
--
Roger Moore | Master of Meaningless Trivia | (raj@alumni.caltech.edu)
I believe there are more instances of the abridgement of freedom of the
people by gradual and silent encroachments by those in power than by
violent and sudden usurpations. -- James Madison >> Stay informed about: Importance (or not) of Fielding Ability |
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Since: Apr 06, 2005 Posts: 622
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(Msg. 9) Posted: Sun Apr 17, 2005 10:23 am
Post subject: Re: Importance (or not) of Fielding Ability [Login to view extended thread Info.] Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)
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In article <4261cb8e.DeleteThis@news.usenetzone.com>, rm.DeleteThis@justlinux.nope.ca
says...
> Craig Richardson <crichard-tacoma.DeleteThis@worldnet.att.net> trolled:
>
> > Precisely. For me, _Moneyball_ was saying "at this point in
> > history, MLB GMs are overvaluing defense and speed, so I'll focus
> > on walks and power". The _Moneyball_ philosophy isn't "I'll
> > stockpile guys who walk a lot" or even "I'll stockpile guys who
> > statheads like", but "I don't have a lot of money, so I have to
> > focus on guys who are systematically undervalued, and can produce
> > the maximum wins per dollar invested". And /that/ is the pattern
> > to Beane's moves - he goes for guys who either have flaws, but
> > strengths that counter them, or guys whose strengths go unnoticed.
>
> And can you name one manager that doesn't think this way? No, you
> can't. But it makes you feel nice and superior, doesn't it?
>
> Every GM at the MLB level has forgotten more about baseball than
> Bill James' computers will ever know.
Voros McCracken, best season in baseball: 1
Ted Williams, best season in baseball: 0
We're just going by your definitions, prag.
--
Dan Szymborski
dan.DeleteThis@baseballprimerREMOVE.com
"A critic who refuses to attack what is bad is not
a whole-hearted supporter of what is good."
- Robert Schumann >> Stay informed about: Importance (or not) of Fielding Ability |
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Since: Jun 01, 2005 Posts: 169
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(Msg. 10) Posted: Tue Apr 19, 2005 2:33 am
Post subject: Re: Importance (or not) of Fielding Ability [Login to view extended thread Info.] Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)
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"David J. Grabiner" <grabiner DeleteThis @alumni.princeton.edu> wrote:
>
"Don McC" <DonMcC DeleteThis @adelphia.net> writes:
>
>> Converting one single (.45) into an out (-.09) would have a value of .54
>> A ball that gets past the SS will almost certainly be a single.
>
> The -.27 is the correct cost here, for a difference of .72. An out has
> two costs: it takes up time in which runs could be scored (costing .18
> runs) and it reduces the chance that other runners will score in that
> inning (costing .09 runs).
>
> You'll see in any of these measures that an out costs more than .09
> runs in every situation, except two outs and nobody on.
>
The tables of expected runs for every base runner - outs combination
start with a value of .45 to .57 (.15 -.19 per out), but that value is
created by the positive events that occur during an inning. So,
in effect, you are double counting the negative value of a hit turned
into an out. When you value an out as -.18, you are already subtracting
the value of men left-on-base plus the value of the out.
--
Don
Facts are stubborn things, but statistics are much more pliable.
~ Mark Twain >> Stay informed about: Importance (or not) of Fielding Ability |
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Since: Jan 02, 2006 Posts: 13
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(Msg. 11) Posted: Tue Apr 26, 2005 2:50 pm
Post subject: Re: Importance (or not) of Fielding Ability [Login to view extended thread Info.] Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)
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Last time we met, Realto Margarino <rm.RemoveThis@justlinux.nope.ca> had said:
> Ima Pseudonym <akrasian.RemoveThis@nospam.hotmail.com> trolled:
>
> > The irony of this is that Bill James is Senior Baseball Operations
> > Advisor for the defending World Series Champion Red Sox.
>
> Advisor. Har.
>
> > So apparently one exceptionally successful GM believes that Bill James
> > knows a tremendous amount about baseball.
>
> The Red Sox won because they spent a tremendous amount of money.
> And it was the money they spent, and not Bill James, that was
> responsible for their win.
The Yankees spent $70 million more than they did; why didn't they
win if it was just about money ?
And how did the Marlins win it all in '03, when they spent less than
1/3rd of what the Yankees did ?
dv
--
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
The geographical center of Boston is in Roxbury. Due north of the
center we find the South End. This is not to be confused with South
Boston which lies directly east from the South End. North of the South
End is East Boston and southwest of East Boston is the North End. >> Stay informed about: Importance (or not) of Fielding Ability |
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Since: Sep 15, 2005 Posts: 11
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(Msg. 12) Posted: Mon May 23, 2005 12:21 am
Post subject: Re: Importance (or not) of Fielding Ability [Login to view extended thread Info.] Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)
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Drew V wrote:
> The Yankees spent $70 million more than they did; why didn't they
> win if it was just about money ?
>
> And how did the Marlins win it all in '03, when they spent less than
> 1/3rd of what the Yankees did ?
Don't use logic on Maynard, it makes his head really hurt. Could be
consider cruel and unusual punishment.<g> >> Stay informed about: Importance (or not) of Fielding Ability |
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