When does an IBB make sense?

> While the stathead community has calculated that IBB are rarely worth
>it, I wondered exactly when an IBB may be a logical move. In the most
>obvious case of Bonds in the last few years, are managers making a
>rational choice or are they hurting their teams by giving Bonds a free
>pass? I was thinking of replaying the '78 Pioneer League at some point -
>does it make sense to intentionally walk Gary Redus (.462/.573/.787) to
>get to, say, Billings' next-best hitter, Skeeter Barnes
>(.368/.430/.516)? The non-Redus part of the team hit .285 and slugged
>.382. Of course, if you walk Redus with a man open, you're basically
>handing away two bases given his speed. Just how dominant does a guy
>need to be for an IBB to make sense?

I'd say it depends on who is on deck (and who might PH), who is pitching, the
score, the inning, and a few other factors.
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Mischa Gelman <news:40F5D501.F9374621@city-net.com>:
> While the stathead community has calculated that IBB are rarely worth
> it, I wondered exactly when an IBB may be a logical move. In the most
> obvious case of Bonds in the last few years, are managers making a
> rational choice or are they hurting their teams by giving Bonds a free
> pass? I was thinking of replaying the '78 Pioneer League at some
> point - does it make sense to intentionally walk Gary Redus
> (.462/.573/.787) to get to, say, Billings' next-best hitter, Skeeter
> Barnes (.368/.430/.516)? The non-Redus part of the team hit .285 and
> slugged .382. Of course, if you walk Redus with a man open, you're
> basically handing away two bases given his speed. Just how dominant
> does a guy need to be for an IBB to make sense?

It's difficult to tell. You never really know what Bonds would have done in
an at-bat if you intentionally walked him instead. Theoretically, though,
his rate statistics (if you don't count the plate appearances in which he
was walked intentionally) would be roughly the same.

So Bonds would still be batting close to .370 and, with about 70 more
legitimate plate appearances instead of IBB's, he'd have about 7-10 more
home runs and 15-25 more RBI (depending on the situations for his IBB's).

Does it make sense? Depends on your perspective.

(1) If Bonds comes up with a runner on 2B with 1B open, I'd walk him.
(2) If it's late in a close game and the bases aren't loaded but a Bonds
homer could tie or win the game for the Giants, I'd walk him.
(3) In almost any other situation, I'd pitch to him.

I prefer to have faith in the pitcher to get him out. After all, it's
mentally much more rewarding for a pitcher when he gets Bonds out, as
opposed to telling people later that he never gave him a pitch to hit.
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Realto Margarino <news:stmJc.21698$RD4.1478534@news20.bellglobal.com>:
> Mischa Gelman <mgelman.DeleteThis@city-net.com> wrote:
>
> > While the stathead community has calculated that IBB are rarely
> > worth it, I wondered exactly when an IBB may be a logical move.
> > In the most obvious case of Bonds in the last few years, are
> > managers making a rational choice or are they hurting their
> > teams by giving Bonds a free pass?
>
> I am not sure what the stat fan "community" has calculated but if
> you count the (runs + rbi - hr) you will find that Baby Bonds
> participates in fewer runs than many other players even though
> their batting averages and walk totals are not as high.

R+RBI-HR leaves out a few runs that a player creates.

When he is out in a fielder's choice and then the hitter who hit into it
scores, it was his walk or hit that allowed the other runner to be on base,
so he helped create that run.

When he is pinch run for and the pinch runner scores, it was his walk or hit
that earned the baserunner and created the run.

When he gets into a rundown and helps another runner to move up, allowing
the other runner to score, he potentially helped that run to score.

When he grounds into a double play and a runner is on third and that run
scores, he created that run and is not credited with an RBI.

The first example happens quite often with Bonds. The others not so much.
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Seapig <news:42d09627.0407142311.64a108b2@posting.google.com>:
> Mischa Gelman <mgelman RemoveThis @city-net.com> wrote in message
> news:<40F5D501.F9374621 RemoveThis @city-net.com>...
> > While the stathead community has calculated that IBB are rarely
> > worth it, I wondered exactly when an IBB may be a logical move. In
> > the most obvious case of Bonds in the last few years, are managers
> > making a rational choice or are they hurting their teams by giving
> > Bonds a free pass? I was thinking of replaying the '78 Pioneer
> > League at some point - does it make sense to intentionally walk
> > Gary Redus (.462/.573/.787) to get to, say, Billings' next-best
> > hitter, Skeeter Barnes (.368/.430/.516)? The non-Redus part of the
> > team hit .285 and slugged .382. Of course, if you walk Redus with a
> > man open, you're basically handing away two bases given his speed.
> > Just how dominant does a guy need to be for an IBB to make sense?
>
> It depends on the situation. There's never been anybody who's so good
> that he should be walked every time.

But Bonds is currently the closest thing.
 >> Stay informed about: When does an IBB make sense? 

In article <2loc1sFf5hfcU1.RemoveThis@uni-berlin.de>,
JPM III <jpmccord.RemoveThis@hotmail.com> wrote:
>Seapig <news:42d09627.0407142311.64a108b2@posting.google.com>:
>> Mischa Gelman <mgelman.RemoveThis@city-net.com> wrote in message
>> news:<40F5D501.F9374621.RemoveThis@city-net.com>...
>> > While the stathead community has calculated that IBB are rarely
>> > worth it, I wondered exactly when an IBB may be a logical move. In
>> > the most obvious case of Bonds in the last few years, are managers
>> > making a rational choice or are they hurting their teams by giving
>> > Bonds a free pass? I was thinking of replaying the '78 Pioneer
>> > League at some point - does it make sense to intentionally walk
>> > Gary Redus (.462/.573/.787) to get to, say, Billings' next-best
>> > hitter, Skeeter Barnes (.368/.430/.516)? The non-Redus part of the
>> > team hit .285 and slugged .382. Of course, if you walk Redus with a
>> > man open, you're basically handing away two bases given his speed.
>> > Just how dominant does a guy need to be for an IBB to make sense?
>>
>> It depends on the situation. There's never been anybody who's so good
>> that he should be walked every time.
>
>But Bonds is currently the closest thing.
>
But Bonds never hit .462. Redus' BA was higher than the next best
hitter's OBP which might make the IBB mandatory in certain end of
the world situations (stipulating that both batter's stats were
reliable indications of their ability)

What I find remarkable about Redus' season is that the Reds didn't
promote him in season. Not sure why you'd keep a prospect obviously
way too good for the league.

Well actually I do know the reason they gave. They were trying to
make a second baseman out of him and he just couldn't handle the
position. They weren't going to promote him unless he improved.
(They simply gave up on the effort after the season was over)





--
RNJ
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In article <40F5D501.F9374621 RemoveThis @city-net.com>, mgelman RemoveThis @city-net.com
says...
> While the stathead community has calculated that IBB are rarely worth
> it, I wondered exactly when an IBB may be a logical move. In the most
> obvious case of Bonds in the last few years, are managers making a
> rational choice or are they hurting their teams by giving Bonds a free
> pass? I was thinking of replaying the '78 Pioneer League at some point -
> does it make sense to intentionally walk Gary Redus (.462/.573/.787) to
> get to, say, Billings' next-best hitter, Skeeter Barnes
> (.368/.430/.516)? The non-Redus part of the team hit .285 and slugged
> .382. Of course, if you walk Redus with a man open, you're basically
> handing away two bases given his speed. Just how dominant does a guy
> need to be for an IBB to make sense?
>

Vaguely speaking, with Bonds's recent years, IBBs have made sense when
there are 2 outs and 1B is open. There was an article about this on
Baseball Primer a year or two ago, I think, and Bennett & Albert also
wrote about it in _Curveball_. I think Baseball Prospectus may also
have done something, but I can't recall..
 >> Stay informed about: When does an IBB make sense? 

Kenny1111 <kcyanks1 RemoveThis @hotmail.com> writes:

>Vaguely speaking, with Bonds's recent years, IBBs have made sense when
>there are 2 outs and 1B is open.

More specifically, it makes _tactical_ sense to walk Bonds with first base
open and two out. Doing so decreases the number of runs expected to score
in the current inning. It's not clear if it makes strategic sense,
particularly early in the game, as it may increase the chance of Bonds
getting an extra PA later in the game. It also changes the expected
distribution of runs, so it may make more or less sense depending on the
score.

--
Roger Moore | Master of Meaningless Trivia | (raj@alumni.caltech.edu)
I believe there are more instances of the abridgement of freedom of the
people by gradual and silent encroachments by those in power than by
violent and sudden usurpations. -- James Madison
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