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Georgia Tech - How bad are we?

 
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Jeffrey Hodgkinson

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Since: Apr 11, 2004
Posts: 37



(Msg. 1) Posted: Mon Apr 12, 2004 6:34 pm
Post subject: Georgia Tech - How bad are we?
Archived from groups: rec>sport>baseball>college (more info?)

I've been quietly lamenting GT's performance so far this year in much
angst. Our record currently stands at 20-14, 4-5 in the ACC. Compared
to last year's totals of 44-18, 17-7 ACC, you can understand why I've
been doing a lot of moping. Lately, the team has been playing better,
and doing it against decent competition. Being a stats junkie, I felt
an overwhelming urge to compare the stats of this year's team to that
of last years. It went like this...

(2004) BA Slug OBP Runs Fld% ERA BB/Gm

Us .324 .500 .411 298 .972 5.05 3.47
Them .263 .427 .345 198 .960 7.68 4.91

(2003)

Us .296 .468 .387 466 .961 4.07 3.19
Them .252 .382 .329 315 .950 6.17 4.50

The first thing I noticed is that we improved our fielding by 11
points. Unfortunately, our opponents improved by almost the same
margin. I knew that we lost a lot from last year on our pitching
staff, and this showed up with an ERA a full run higher. But then our
opponent's ERA rose by even more. Our walks per game got a little
worse, but our opponent's likewise worsened at a similar rate. Our
hitting is doing just fine, after an early season slump. So what's
wrong? The only thing I can see is that our opponents are doing a
better job at getting big hits against us. In 2003, their slugging
percentage was only 130 points higher than their batting average. In
2004, it is 164 points higher. It does not seem like this should
change our winning percentage from 71% down to 59%. But that is what
happened.. I expect our record to gradually improve as the year
progresses. I'm not reserving a ticket to Omaha, but I am counting on
making the NCAA tourney. We're not dead yet!

Jeff

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Todd Warner

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Since: Sep 20, 2003
Posts: 38



(Msg. 2) Posted: Mon Apr 12, 2004 7:53 pm
Post subject: Re: Georgia Tech - How bad are we? [Login to view extended thread Info.]
Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)

Just a quick look at GT results this popped out at me:

GT has score 59% of their runs in 32% of their games


"Jeffrey Hodgkinson" <hodgkinson.TakeThisOut@comcast.net> wrote in message
news:gi4m70p71r3gsd0o1q8kp90c8a9ccnj3mm@4ax.com...
> I've been quietly lamenting GT's performance so far this year in much
> angst. Our record currently stands at 20-14, 4-5 in the ACC. Compared
> to last year's totals of 44-18, 17-7 ACC, you can understand why I've
> been doing a lot of moping. Lately, the team has been playing better,
> and doing it against decent competition. Being a stats junkie, I felt
> an overwhelming urge to compare the stats of this year's team to that
> of last years. It went like this...
>
> (2004) BA Slug OBP Runs Fld% ERA BB/Gm
>
> Us .324 .500 .411 298 .972 5.05 3.47
> Them .263 .427 .345 198 .960 7.68 4.91
>
> (2003)
>
> Us .296 .468 .387 466 .961 4.07 3.19
> Them .252 .382 .329 315 .950 6.17 4.50
>
> The first thing I noticed is that we improved our fielding by 11
> points. Unfortunately, our opponents improved by almost the same
> margin. I knew that we lost a lot from last year on our pitching
> staff, and this showed up with an ERA a full run higher. But then our
> opponent's ERA rose by even more. Our walks per game got a little
> worse, but our opponent's likewise worsened at a similar rate. Our
> hitting is doing just fine, after an early season slump. So what's
> wrong? The only thing I can see is that our opponents are doing a
> better job at getting big hits against us. In 2003, their slugging
> percentage was only 130 points higher than their batting average. In
> 2004, it is 164 points higher. It does not seem like this should
> change our winning percentage from 71% down to 59%. But that is what
> happened.. I expect our record to gradually improve as the year
> progresses. I'm not reserving a ticket to Omaha, but I am counting on
> making the NCAA tourney. We're not dead yet!
>
> Jeff

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joseph jeong

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Since: Mar 14, 2004
Posts: 2



(Msg. 3) Posted: Tue Apr 13, 2004 5:10 am
Post subject: Re: Georgia Tech - How bad are we? [Login to view extended thread Info.]
Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)

Todd Warner <towarner.RemoveThis@cox.net> hypothesized the following:
: Just a quick look at GT results this popped out at me:
: GT has score 59% of their runs in 32% of their games

yeah. recently we've had an offensive explosion. the thing i'm concerned
about is not really starting pitching but our relievers. i'll look at
the numbers after this wednesday's game (hint: jeff you can do it first
if you want. heh) but i want to see how our bullpen matches up against
last year's.






-joseph
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Jeffrey Hodgkinson

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Since: Apr 11, 2004
Posts: 37



(Msg. 4) Posted: Tue Apr 13, 2004 9:51 am
Post subject: Re: Georgia Tech - How bad are we? [Login to view extended thread Info.]
Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)

>yeah. recently we've had an offensive explosion. the thing i'm concerned
>about is not really starting pitching but our relievers. i'll look at
>the numbers after this wednesday's game (hint: jeff you can do it first
>if you want. heh) but i want to see how our bullpen matches up against
>last year's.

Given that the stats so far are based on about half of the games
played, and pitchers tend to see less time than position players, you
have to take some of this with a grain of salt.

Last year, we basically had 12 pitchers. Their ERA varied between 3.14
and 4.65. I have to say that is an amazingly narrow range. There were
14 saves over the course of the 62 game season, divided amongst three
different pitchers.

This year, we've played 15 different pitchers, of which five have been
true freshmen. Currently, the two best ERAs are 1.69 and 1.80, but
those are each on just 5 innings pitched. Beyond those two, the ERAs
range from 2.70, all the way up to 20.25. There are six pitchers with
an ERA of 5.00 or greater. Four of those six are true freshmen (and
the 5th true freshmen has an ERA of 4.85). The team has six saves
combined, so far (from 3 different players), which isn't far off the
pace of last year. It would be fair to say that the job of closer is
still up in the air. The most saves any pitcher has this year is
three, by John Goodman (ERA 6.91). Last year, Jeff Watchko and Brian
Burks combined for all but one of the 14 saves. But Jeff graduated,
and Brian became one of our regular starters. Our bullpen has
definitely not done as well this year as last. But perhaps that's more
an indication that we were spoiled by last year's bullpen, which was
clearly quite excellent.

There's one other notable thing to say about the pitching stats. One
of the reasons we were highly touted at the start of the year was the
one-two pitching duo of sophomores Micah Owings and Jason
Neighborgall. Micah has had a good year, but Jason's year has been a
complete disaster. Last year, Jason had an ERA of 3.70 on 41 innings
pitched. He started 7 games. This year, he's started just one, and on
five innings pitched, he sports an ERA of 20.25, easily the team's
worst. It's not hard to see why. He's given up 15 walks in those 5
innings. To say that he's had control problems would be quite an
understatement. He's the only returning GT pitcher who has performed
much more poorly than the year before. I would love to see him return
to last year's form. If he can get back in sync again, that will take
some of the pressure off of the five true freshmen, who have been
thrown into the fire rather early in their careers.
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