Draft today

On Thu, 05 Jun 2008 10:14:32 -0400, David Short
<David.no.Short.DeleteThis@Spam.Wright.Please.edu> wrote:

>JustTom wrote:
>> I know the MLB draft isn't as sexy as the others because of the lag
>> between impact, but I can't believe no one has even mentioned it.
>>
>> Especially since Walt has taken hits for not being good at it, and
>> this being his first stab here.
>
>For all the credit Wayne has gotten for improving the minor league
>system, his drafts have not worked out terribly well. The real
>improvement was during the DanO years.

I'm no draftnik, so I have no idea how good, bad or in between either's
drafts have been. That said, Dan O's drafts were longer ago, so if we
gauge each on guys who've made the majors, made it to higher levels of
the minors or even on level of performance as guys "get it" and adjust
to pro ball, then the deck is loaded in O'Brien's favor.

The short way of getting at what I'm getting at is asking on what are
you judging each guy's drafts?

>> So, what direction do you think we'll take?
>>
>> Where to go for the 1st round?
>>
>> I've seen a few mock drafts, and most have us taking either HS 1B
>> Eric Hosmer, or Missouri RHP Aaron Crow.
>>
>> My thinking is always always take the flamethrower (I wanted Lincecum
>> and got Stubbs), but I'm dubious as to whether Crow will even make it
>> that far. He's considered the top college arm available by a lot of
>> folks. He had a string of 43 or so scoreless innings at one point
>> this year.
>
>Taking the flamethrower has not worked out well for the reds
>historically. Of course, it's usually been a high school flamethrower.
>
>> That thinking is enforced because this draft is supposedly really
>> heavy with quality 1B, so I'm thinking grab the pitcher and there
>> should still be something of quality at 1B later if you decide you
>> want one.
>
>I think in baseball you take the best talent on the board and never
>draft for need. I have no clue who that would be.

Yep. I'd go with the Best Available Talent philosophy. Even if the BAT
is at a position where you don't think you need help, a lot can happen
in four or five seasons,. Then the worst case scenario is that you wind
up with someone other teams might covet.

******************************************************************
Kevin McClave

"To justify himself, each relies on
the other's crime." ~Albert Camus
******************************************************************
 >> Stay informed about: Draft today 

JustTom wrote:
> I know the MLB draft isn't as sexy as the others because of the lag
> between impact, but I can't believe no one has even mentioned it.
>
> Especially since Walt has taken hits for not being good at it, and
> this being his first stab here.
>
> So, what direction do you think we'll take?
>
> Where to go for the 1st round?
>
> I've seen a few mock drafts, and most have us taking either HS 1B
> Eric Hosmer, or Missouri RHP Aaron Crow.
>
> My thinking is always always take the flamethrower (I wanted Lincecum
> and got Stubbs), but I'm dubious as to whether Crow will even make it
> that far. He's considered the top college arm available by a lot of
> folks. He had a string of 43 or so scoreless innings at one point
> this year.
>
> That thinking is enforced because this draft is supposedly really
> heavy with quality 1B, so I'm thinking grab the pitcher and there
> should still be something of quality at 1B later if you decide youe
> want one.
>
>
>
Many years ago i heard an interview during a rain delay with one of the
scouts. The question put to him was "What do you look for in a hitter".
His reply was that they look for someone who can turn on the fast ball
and they will teach him to hit the breaking ball. Made sense to me at
the time but now i am wondering if the reds still subscribe to that
philosophy or is that a standard birddog axiom. If they do it makes
sense of how the reds always make a off speed slop ballin mediocre
pitcher look like hof material.
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Kevin McClave wrote:
> On Thu, 05 Jun 2008 10:14:32 -0400, David Short
> <David.no.Short.DeleteThis@Spam.Wright.Please.edu> wrote:
>
>> JustTom wrote:
>>> I know the MLB draft isn't as sexy as the others because of the lag
>>> between impact, but I can't believe no one has even mentioned it.
>>>
>>> Especially since Walt has taken hits for not being good at it, and
>>> this being his first stab here.
>> For all the credit Wayne has gotten for improving the minor league
>> system, his drafts have not worked out terribly well. The real
>> improvement was during the DanO years.
>
> I'm no draftnik, so I have no idea how good, bad or in between either's
> drafts have been. That said, Dan O's drafts were longer ago, so if we
> gauge each on guys who've made the majors, made it to higher levels of
> the minors or even on level of performance as guys "get it" and adjust
> to pro ball, then the deck is loaded in O'Brien's favor.
>
> The short way of getting at what I'm getting at is asking on what are
> you judging each guy's drafts?

All draft picks are gambles. I do understand that. But the #1 draft pick
is the biggest asset in the draft. More than results, contrast the two
guy's philosophies.

DanO drafted Bailey and Bruce by acclimation the biggest talents available.

Wayne passed over big talent in order to draft Mesoraco and Stubbs both
of whom were stretches for their slots and both of whom have been mired
in the minors without showing real success. They passed over Lincecum in
order to get Stubbs. I believe most draft day observers thought Mesoraco
was a second or third round pick and they took him with their #1.

dfs
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"David Short" <David.no.Short.DeleteThis@Spam.Wright.Please.edu> wrote in message
news:g29afl$ngd$1@posting.glorb.com...
> Kevin McClave wrote:
>> On Thu, 05 Jun 2008 10:14:32 -0400, David Short
>> <David.no.Short.DeleteThis@Spam.Wright.Please.edu> wrote:
>>
>>> JustTom wrote:
>>>> I know the MLB draft isn't as sexy as the others because of the lag
>>>> between impact, but I can't believe no one has even mentioned it.
>>>>
>>>> Especially since Walt has taken hits for not being good at it, and
>>>> this being his first stab here.
>>> For all the credit Wayne has gotten for improving the minor league
>>> system, his drafts have not worked out terribly well. The real
>>> improvement was during the DanO years.
>>
>> I'm no draftnik, so I have no idea how good, bad or in between either's
>> drafts have been. That said, Dan O's drafts were longer ago, so if we
>> gauge each on guys who've made the majors, made it to higher levels of
>> the minors or even on level of performance as guys "get it" and adjust
>> to pro ball, then the deck is loaded in O'Brien's favor.
>>
>> The short way of getting at what I'm getting at is asking on what are
>> you judging each guy's drafts?
>
> All draft picks are gambles. I do understand that. But the #1 draft pick
> is the biggest asset in the draft. More than results, contrast the two
> guy's philosophies.
>
> DanO drafted Bailey and Bruce by acclimation the biggest talents
> available.
>
> Wayne passed over big talent in order to draft Mesoraco and Stubbs both of
> whom were stretches for their slots and both of whom have been mired in
> the minors without showing real success. They passed over Lincecum in
> order to get Stubbs. I believe most draft day observers thought Mesoraco
> was a second or third round pick and they took him with their #1.
>
> dfs

1st baseman out of Miami..........Alonzo.
 >> Stay informed about: Draft today 

On Thu, 05 Jun 2008 10:14:32 -0400, David Short
<David.no.Short.RemoveThis@Spam.Wright.Please.edu> wrote:

>JustTom wrote:
>> I know the MLB draft isn't as sexy as the others because of the lag
>> between impact, but I can't believe no one has even mentioned it.
>>
>> Especially since Walt has taken hits for not being good at it, and
>> this being his first stab here.
>
>For all the credit Wayne has gotten for improving the minor league
>system, his drafts have not worked out terribly well. The real
>improvement was during the DanO years.
>
>> So, what direction do you think we'll take?
>>
>> Where to go for the 1st round?
>>
>> I've seen a few mock drafts, and most have us taking either HS 1B
>> Eric Hosmer, or Missouri RHP Aaron Crow.
>>
>> My thinking is always always take the flamethrower (I wanted Lincecum
>> and got Stubbs), but I'm dubious as to whether Crow will even make it
>> that far. He's considered the top college arm available by a lot of
>> folks. He had a string of 43 or so scoreless innings at one point
>> this year.
>
>Taking the flamethrower has not worked out well for the reds
>historically. Of course, it's usually been a high school flamethrower.
>

Agreed, but he's a college JR with 3 workable pitches, including a
change. He's right there with Cueto in age. Hell, he might be
older than Homer. And with Soto around, anyone that already throws a
change off of a 96 mph fastball should improve greatly under his
tutelage.

He threw 117 innings with 96 Ks as a soph, and then threw 107 with
127K this year.



>
>I think in baseball you take the best talent on the board and never
>draft for need. I have no clue who that would be.
>

While I hear you, I don't know how much I agree with it, especially on
a college level player. Seems to me that hard throwing upper classmen
like Lincecum, Hochevar, or guys like that have the opportunity to
make an impact soon enough that you could draft a bit on need. So,
instead of the Homer route, where we can't really expect much from him
until he's nearing 24 or 25, and 4 or 5 or more years to develop,
someone like Crow would be there in 1 or 2 or 3.

>I don't know if anybody noticed, but BJ Szyamnski was sent from the
>lookouts to the River bats. It was a little early for a mid season
>promotion, so, it sounds like good news. Then you look at Szymanski's
>numbers 239/283/426 and it's impossible to say he deserved it. At best
>he can hope for the honorary Chris Dickerson spot on the 40 man roster.
>

I was deeply dissappointed that CD didn't at least get a sniff when RF
went down. He certainly couldn't be any worse that CP, and I'd
guess even Dusty wouldn't be stupid enough to put him at the top of
the lineup.

CP certainly didn't get any better magically over the week he was in
L'VIlle, and yet there he was in the 2 hole last night.

I hate me some dusty.

>They're clearing room for Stubbs 265/381/402 to move out of florida and
>into the southern league.

..265. I thought we was handling the stick better this year. Is
florida High A?
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JustTom wrote:
> On Thu, 05 Jun 2008 10:14:32 -0400, David Short
>> I don't know if anybody noticed, but BJ Szyamnski was sent from the
>> lookouts to the River bats. It was a little early for a mid season
>> promotion, so, it sounds like good news. Then you look at Szymanski's
>> numbers 239/283/426 and it's impossible to say he deserved it. At best
>> he can hope for the honorary Chris Dickerson spot on the 40 man roster.
>
> I was deeply dissappointed that CD didn't at least get a sniff when RF
> went down. He certainly couldn't be any worse that CP, and I'd
> guess even Dusty wouldn't be stupid enough to put him at the top of
> the lineup.
>
> CP certainly didn't get any better magically over the week he was in
> L'VIlle, and yet there he was in the 2 hole last night.
>
> I hate me some dusty.

I don't mind CP on the 25 man roster. Given that Junior is hurting and
Freel is out, I don't really even mind him in the starting lineup.
But bat him eighth or so.

>> They're clearing room for Stubbs 265/381/402 to move out of florida and
>> into the southern league.
>
> .265. I thought we was handling the stick better this year. Is
> florida High A?
Yeah. Both Sarasota and Chattanoga are not good places for hitters.
Stubbs has been streaky and they're probably right to push him to see if
he can have a career.

dfs
 >> Stay informed about: Draft today 

On Thu, 5 Jun 2008 14:53:11 -0400, "Bob Braun"
<oxinfla RemoveThis @hotandsunnymail.com> wrote:
>
>1st baseman out of Miami..........Alonzo.
>
>

Dammitall, Aaron Crow was still available!!

So instead of the Baeball America's #1 rated RHP and #5 overall
prospect, we took the #12 rated hitter.


Yonder Alonso, 1b for BC who hit
AVG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB
..373 150 61 56 10 115 51 8

Hitting Ability: Alonso looks like a professional hitter at the
plate, a run producer with patience who's particularly good at going
the other way.

Power: He's got above-average power, the kind that could generate
25-30 homers annually in the future. Right now, it's mostly to center
and left-center, but as he gets older, he'll be able to turn on and
pull pitches on the inner half of the plate

Running Speed: He's got below-average speed.

Base running: He's not a base-clogger, with good instincts on the
basepaths.

Arm Strength: He's got a good arm at first.

Fielding: He's adequate at first, with decent hands that allow
him to catch what's right at him.

Range: He has average range, fine for his position.

Physical Description: Alonso has a medium frame with a thick build.
He's barrel-chested and solid throughout, having worked hard to
tighten up his body.

Medical Update: Healthy.

Strengths: He's the kind of guy who will simply hit, with great
plate discpline and plenty of power

Weaknesses: He's limited to first defensively and is only OK
there.

Summary: Alonso or Smoak? Smoak or Alonso? It can be quite a
debate over which college first baseman should go first on Draft day.
Alonso is a hitter, period, with a great approach and power,
especially the other way right now. Defensively, he's no great shakes,
but it's that bat that teams will dream about putting in the middle of
their lineup to produce plenty of runs in the future.
 >> Stay informed about: Draft today 

"David Short" <David.no.Short.TakeThisOut@Spam.Wright.Please.edu> wrote in message
news:g28sin$ndu$1@posting.glorb.com...
> JustTom wrote:
>> I know the MLB draft isn't as sexy as the others because of the lag
>> between impact, but I can't believe no one has even mentioned it.
>>
>> Especially since Walt has taken hits for not being good at it, and
>> this being his first stab here.
>
> For all the credit Wayne has gotten for improving the minor league
> system, his drafts have not worked out terribly well. The real
> improvement was during the DanO years.
>
>> So, what direction do you think we'll take?
>>
>> Where to go for the 1st round?
>>
>> I've seen a few mock drafts, and most have us taking either HS 1B
>> Eric Hosmer, or Missouri RHP Aaron Crow.
>>
>> My thinking is always always take the flamethrower (I wanted Lincecum
>> and got Stubbs), but I'm dubious as to whether Crow will even make it
>> that far. He's considered the top college arm available by a lot of
>> folks. He had a string of 43 or so scoreless innings at one point
>> this year.
>
> Taking the flamethrower has not worked out well for the reds historically.
> Of course, it's usually been a high school flamethrower.
>
>> That thinking is enforced because this draft is supposedly really
>> heavy with quality 1B, so I'm thinking grab the pitcher and there
>> should still be something of quality at 1B later if you decide you
>> want one.
>
> I think in baseball you take the best talent on the board and never draft
> for need. I have no clue who that would be.
>
> I don't know if anybody noticed, but BJ Szyamnski was sent from the
> lookouts to the River bats. It was a little early for a mid season
> promotion, so, it sounds like good news. Then you look at Szymanski's
> numbers 239/283/426 and it's impossible to say he deserved it. At best he
> can hope for the honorary Chris Dickerson spot on the 40 man roster.
>
> They're clearing room for Stubbs 265/381/402 to move out of florida and
> into the southern league.

Or.......they're gonna sign the draftee to that major league deal that he
wants.
 >> Stay informed about: Draft today 

On Thu, 05 Jun 2008 13:26:41 GMT, tom.DeleteThis@nomail.please (JustTom) wrote:

>I know the MLB draft isn't as sexy as the others because of the lag
>between impact, but I can't believe no one has even mentioned it.
>
>Especially since Walt has taken hits for not being good at it, and
>this being his first stab here.
>
>
>So, what direction do you think we'll take?
>

I'm sure this won't align, but I'll give it a shot.

Day 1:

#7 Alonso, Yonder U Miami 1B L/R
6'02" 215 1987-04-08 JR
#84 Stewart, Zachary Texas Tech U
RHP R/R 6'02" 205 1986-09-28 JR
#119 Cline, Tyler Cass HS (GA) RHP
R/R 6'02" 220 1990-06-24 HS
#149 Shunick, Clayton North Carolina St U RHP
R/R 6'01" 175 1986-09-10 JR
#179 Buchholz, Alexander U Delaware SS R/R
6'00" 185 1987-09-30 JR

Only 2 with scouting reports are Alonso and Stewart. Stewart is a
college closer.

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/mlb/events/draft/y2008/drafttracker.jsp...0&s=30&
 >> Stay informed about: Draft today 

"Kevin McClave" <kmcclave DeleteThis @SPAM666twcny.rr.com> wrote in message
news:rr1g44lfbtq4g6kcd6rctvffqid1glqc49@4ax.com...
> On Thu, 05 Jun 2008 10:14:32 -0400, David Short
> <David.no.Short DeleteThis @Spam.Wright.Please.edu> wrote:
>
>>JustTom wrote:
>>> I know the MLB draft isn't as sexy as the others because of the lag
>>> between impact, but I can't believe no one has even mentioned it.
>>>
>>> Especially since Walt has taken hits for not being good at it, and
>>> this being his first stab here.
>>
>>For all the credit Wayne has gotten for improving the minor league
>>system, his drafts have not worked out terribly well. The real
>>improvement was during the DanO years.
>
> I'm no draftnik, so I have no idea how good, bad or in between either's
> drafts have been. That said, Dan O's drafts were longer ago, so if we
> gauge each on guys who've made the majors, made it to higher levels of
> the minors or even on level of performance as guys "get it" and adjust
> to pro ball, then the deck is loaded in O'Brien's favor.
>
> The short way of getting at what I'm getting at is asking on what are
> you judging each guy's drafts?
>
>>> So, what direction do you think we'll take?
>>>
>>> Where to go for the 1st round?
>>>
>>> I've seen a few mock drafts, and most have us taking either HS 1B
>>> Eric Hosmer, or Missouri RHP Aaron Crow.
>>>
>>> My thinking is always always take the flamethrower (I wanted Lincecum
>>> and got Stubbs), but I'm dubious as to whether Crow will even make it
>>> that far. He's considered the top college arm available by a lot of
>>> folks. He had a string of 43 or so scoreless innings at one point
>>> this year.
>>
>>Taking the flamethrower has not worked out well for the reds
>>historically. Of course, it's usually been a high school flamethrower.
>>
>>> That thinking is enforced because this draft is supposedly really
>>> heavy with quality 1B, so I'm thinking grab the pitcher and there
>>> should still be something of quality at 1B later if you decide you
>>> want one.
>>
>>I think in baseball you take the best talent on the board and never
>>draft for need. I have no clue who that would be.
>
> Yep. I'd go with the Best Available Talent philosophy. Even if the BAT
> is at a position where you don't think you need help, a lot can happen
> in four or five seasons,. Then the worst case scenario is that you wind
> up with someone other teams might covet.

Hard to criticize the moves of a farm system ranked 3rd in all of baseball.
 >> Stay informed about: Draft today 

On Jun 7, 1:14 pm, "RJA" <r....TakeThisOut@nospam.cinci.rr.com> wrote:
> "Kevin McClave" <kmccl....TakeThisOut@SPAM666twcny.rr.com> wrote in message
>
> news:rr1g44lfbtq4g6kcd6rctvffqid1glqc49@4ax.com...
>
>
>
>
>
> > On Thu, 05 Jun 2008 10:14:32 -0400, David Short
> > <David.no.Sh....TakeThisOut@Spam.Wright.Please.edu> wrote:
>
> >>JustTom wrote:
> >>> I know the MLB draft isn't as sexy as the others because of the lag
> >>> between impact, but I can't believe no one has even mentioned it.
>
> >>> Especially since Walt has taken hits for not being good at it, and
> >>> this being his first stab here.
>
> >>For all the credit Wayne has gotten for improving the minor league
> >>system, his drafts have not worked out terribly well. The real
> >>improvement was during the DanO years.
>
> > I'm no draftnik, so I have no idea how good, bad or in between either's
> > drafts have been. That said, Dan O's drafts were longer ago, so if we
> > gauge each on guys who've made the majors, made it to higher levels of
> > the minors or even on level of performance as guys "get it"  and adjust
> > to pro ball, then the deck is loaded in O'Brien's favor.
>
> > The short way of getting at what I'm getting at is asking on what are
> > you judging each guy's drafts?
>
> >>> So, what direction do you think we'll take?
>
> >>> Where to go for the 1st round?
>
> >>> I've seen a few mock drafts, and most have us taking either  HS 1B
> >>> Eric Hosmer, or Missouri  RHP Aaron Crow.
>
> >>> My thinking is always always take the flamethrower (I wanted Lincecum
> >>> and got Stubbs), but I'm dubious as to whether Crow will even make it
> >>> that far.   He's considered the top college arm available  by a lot of
> >>> folks.  He had a string of 43 or so scoreless innings at one point
> >>> this year.
>
> >>Taking the flamethrower has not worked out well for the reds
> >>historically. Of course, it's usually been a high school flamethrower.
>
> >>> That thinking is enforced because this draft is supposedly really
> >>> heavy with quality 1B, so I'm thinking grab the pitcher and there
> >>> should still be something of quality at 1B later if you decide you
> >>> want one.
>
> >>I think in baseball you take the best talent on the board and never
> >>draft for need. I have no clue who that would be.
>
> > Yep. I'd go with the Best Available Talent philosophy. Even if the BAT
> > is at a position where you don't think you need help, a lot can happen
> > in four or five seasons,. Then the worst case scenario is that you wind
> > up with someone other teams might covet.
>
> Hard to criticize the moves of a farm system ranked 3rd in all of baseball..- Hide quoted text -
>
> - Show quoted text -

I'm not sure how BA rates farm systems. I assume they look first at
high-level talent and then at overall depth. For most of the past 8
years, the Reds have been ranked near the bottom ( no suprise) and
have ranked in the top 10 for the past couple years. This is based
largely on the strength of 4 prospects: bruce, Bailey, cueto, and
Votto. With all 4 of these guys in the majors now, I expect to see
Cinci plummett in next years BA rankings. I dont think the Reds have
very good depth after those 4 guys. Still, its a bounty. I think that
a large problem in this organization wasnt so much the drafting
(although there have been some stinkers) was a lack of presence in the
latin american talent market. hopefully, the arrival of cueto is a
sign that things are changing.

IIRC, the Angels have been ranked pretty highly the past few years
but many of thier prospects have not lived up to expectations. They
seem to need to sign a big-time outfieder every offseason.

> about to type "amphob"
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