DIPS through 7/10/06 (All-Star Break)...

Here are the DIPS numbers through the All-Star Break. As always,
they are not park- or league-adjusted, but they are adjusted for lefties
and knuckleballers. Small sample sizes, as always, need to be kept in
mind. For more information on Voros McCracken's Defense-Independent
Pitching Statistics, do a google search.

I'm going to do this in several posts (following up on this one)
to make sure that any sudden lost connections don't force me to start
completely over.

Catch you later.
--Robert Machemer

--
Robert Paul Aubrey Machemer | "For each time he falls, he shall
Amherst College, Math & Classics | rise again, and woe to the wicked!"
IF1, IF3, IF9: best films, cast | --Don Quixote (Man of La Mancha)
"I know about society. I am taking a Sociology course." -- from asbb-r

Bob-Nob venit, vidit, et dixit:

> Here are the DIPS numbers through the All-Star Break. As always,
> they are not park- or league-adjusted, but they are adjusted for lefties
> and knuckleballers. Small sample sizes, as always, need to be kept in
> mind. For more information on Voros McCracken's Defense-Independent
> Pitching Statistics, do a google search.

First, the starters...

dERA ERA IP
Schilling 3.62 3.60 127.1
Pauley 4.01 7.88 16.0
Wakefield 4.42 4.05 115.2
Lester 4.52 3.06 32.1
Johnson 4.85 10.13 8.0
Clement 5.37 6.61 65.1
DiNardo 5.39 7.11 25.1
Beckett 5.55 4.75 110.0
Snyder 5.55 5.40 5.0
Wells 8.95 8.64 8.1

Obviously, the Sox have had only three super-healthy pitchers.
Schilling has pitched about as well as expected by DIPS. Wakefield
has been pretty lucky ERA-wise, and Beckett has been very lucky
ERA-wise. Lester has pitched pretty well (though dERA thinks he's
due for a bad outing or two in the near future unless he stops giving
up quite so many walks). Most of the others have too few innings to
make much in the way of conclusions. I'd be fine with giving Johnson
more opportunities at this point (partly because the Sox don't have
a lot of other options I like better right now, and partly because I
think Epstein's stated reasoning for getting Johnson was sound: namely
that Johnson has pitched better than his ERA would indicate and with
time, the good defensive Boston infield should help him quite a bit).

Anyway, for the heck of it, let's look at how the healthy three and
Clement have pitched over the course of the season...

Schilling:
thru 4/16 4/30 5/14 5/30 6/22 7/10
dERA 3.47 3.06 3.50 3.51 3.59 3.62
ERA 1.64 2.88 3.76 3.93 3.55 3.60
IP 22.0 40.2 52.2 73.1 101.1 127.1

The dERA has obviously been pretty steady since the first month of
the season. The ERA may rise or fall a bit, but it's stayed centered
around Schilling's dERA. (Frankly, I think if everyone's ERA stayed so
close to his dERA as Schilling's does, no one would ever quibble with
dERA's numbers). Anyway, like I say, Schilling has been both good and
consistent. Which is nice.

Wakefield:
4/16 4/30 5/14 5/30 6/22 7/10
dERA 3.43 4.25 4.04 4.21 4.23 4.42
ERA 4.34 3.90 4.03 4.07 3.82 4.05
IP 18.2 32.1 51.1 73.0 99.0 115.2

Wakefield has been fairly consistent as well, though his ERA has
generally been a little bit better than his dERA. I'd expect his dERA
to come down a little bit in the near future and his ERA to go up a
bit to meet it. All in all, a good show by Wakefield, however. (And
his dERA and ERA are not ridiculously out of line with each other, it
should be pointed out, though I think he has been slightly lucky in
regards to giving up runs, given the number of strikeouts, walks, and
home runs he has).

Beckett:
4/16 4/30 5/14 5/30 6/22 7/10
dERA 3.07 5.58 5.15 5.27 5.38 5.55
ERA 1.29 4.50 4.70 4.46 5.09 4.75
IP 21.0 32.0 44.0 68.2 81.1 110.0

Mystery Man #1. dERA has hated him since the third week of the
season (or thereabouts). His ERA (not surprisingly) has climbed to
meet his dERA, but still is a ways away. Given that his dERA woes
are almost entirely due to his longball woes, one can still hold out
hope that there's some sort of fluke going on. (If he stops giving
up home runs, the rest of his numbers are excellent. Change his
HR total to Schilling's 19 -- which is still high -- and Beckett's
dERA drops to 4.79. Drop it to Wakefield's 14 and his dERA goes
down to 4.46, around where Wakefield's dERA is).

Unfortunately, I'm not so optimistic. Others are perfectly
free to make their own predictions, but here's mine: his dERA will
come down from there. His ERA may come down a little bit from there,
but not much. He's not giving up a lot of his on balls put in play
and studies have shown suggested that pitchers have little (if any)
control over that. As a result, most of those home runs he's given
up are solo shots. Beckett could easily cut his home run rate by a
third for the rest of the season and, just by virtue of giving up
singles/walks/whatevers at less opportune times (and more of them),
see his ERA go up.

I'll put it more plainly: he's not pitched particularly well.
I think he'll pitch better. (I hope he pitches a LOT better). But
I am not optimistic at all. I think he's been lucky to have an ERA
as low as his currently is, and I don't think it makes sense to
expect him to continue to be so lucky, even if I do expect his HR-rate
to improve. So I don't think his ERA will get all that much better
than it is now, which is okay, but definitely not what anyone would
have hoped from him before the season.

Clement:
4/16 4/30 5/14 5/30 6/22 7/10
dERA 4.20 4.65 4.76 5.22 5.37 5.37
ERA 9.00 6.14 5.58 6.91 6.61 6.61
IP 11.0 29.1 40.1 54.2 65.1 65.1

Mystery Man #2. Look at how that dERA has climbed. I don't
subscribe to the "gutless" theory of pitching assessment (any pitcher
who gives up a lot of hits on balls in play is called "gutless" at
some point -- see Derek Lowe and Keith Foulke and Matt Clement and
others). I do think Clement hasn't pitched well. He's pitched better
than his ERA would indicate, but his dERA is not good either. I
strongly hope that this is an indication that he's simply been hurting
for most of the year, and that rest and recovery will allow him to
find whatever it was he had in other years. His dERA last year wasn't
this bad. His ERA last year wasn't this bad. And the same for other
years.

Realistically, the Sox could use some help here. Beckett could
pitch better -- that would help. Lester can keep up what he's doing
ERA-wise. And one of Clement/DiNardo/Wells can get healthy and pitch
as well as they did last year (when all three were considerably better
than they have been this year). That would help a ton.

Catch you later.
--Robert Machemer

--
Robert Paul Aubrey Machemer | "For each time he falls, he shall
Amherst College, Math & Classics | rise again, and woe to the wicked!"
IF1, IF3, IF9: best films, cast | --Don Quixote (Man of La Mancha)
"I know about society. I am taking a Sociology course." -- from asbb-r