Chipper may go on DL

Sam Hutcheson pisze:
> On Jun 30, 3:33 pm, Tomasz Radko <t... RemoveThis @interia.pl> wrote:
>
>> Me neither but so far in the season Martinez has given more to Mets than
>> James to Braves. As for long term - James has much more value of course.
>
> I'm not sure you can say that. Martinez' game log:
>
> http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/gl.cgi?n1=martipe02&t=p&year=2008
>
> James:
>
> http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/gl.cgi?n1=jamesch03&t=p&year=2008
>
> I don't see a lot more value-add from Pedro over Chucky this year.

Because there wasn't a lot of it. One game. June 15th IIRC. Of course it
means in the other starts Martinez was a little worse than James, but
usually it doesn't meana thing if you lose 5-7 or 5-10. Especially with
Braves ability to lose the close ones. So in our situation I'd prefer a
starter who has one very good game and several veeeery bad over somebody
who is consistently bad. High variance is good for very bad pitchers.

I repeat: considering the cost James is better for Braves. But from pure
result POV Martinez is (or rather: was till now).

pzdr

TRad
 >> Stay informed about: Chipper may go on DL 

On Jul 1, 3:08 am, Tomasz Radko <t....TakeThisOut@interia.pl> wrote:
> Sam Hutcheson pisze:
>
>
>
>
>
> > Dale Hicks wrote:
>
> >>> Certainly getting hit in the face will harsh you batting eye, but I'm
> >>> all about the high-risk, high-reward prediction.  Anyone can predict
> >>> that Frenchfry will struggle with plate discipline but put up enough
> >>> shiny placeholder stats to get looked past.  Only a few brave souls
> >>> will throw out a "Mike Hampton will out pitch Pedro Martinez in 2008."
> >> Or even:
>
> >>     giles is a better player than mark derosa.  in 3 years, mark
> >>     derosa will be a RH version of keith lockhart.  in 3 years marcus
> >>     giles will be challenging for the all-star game.
>
> >> You didn't mention anything about Giles playing himself out of
> >> baseball or DeRosa becoming a solid major league player a year later,
> >> though.
>
> > I did not factor in the Giles post-steroid era decline, no.  I did not
> > do that at all.
>
> Because we all know that steroids don't improve performance.

I certainly don't. I also have no idea whether or not Giles used PEDs
or not. All I know is that he fell off the face of the earth almost
instantaneously and I was not expecting that. I don't think anyone
else was either.

s/
 >> Stay informed about: Chipper may go on DL 

James Sidbury wrote:

> > > Because we all know that steroids don't improve performance.
> >
> > I certainly don't. I also have no idea whether or not Giles used PEDs
> > or not. All I know is that he fell off the face of the earth almost
> > instantaneously and I was not expecting that. I don't think anyone
> > else was either.
> >
>
> I wonder what history would have been like if Giles and Pryor never had
> that collision?

A good question, though I think the collarbone thing with Andruw is
more likley the culprit if one of the injuries is the culprit at all.
Giles' power disappeared after that, if I recall correctly.

I'm not sure how Richard Pryor enters into it.

s/
 >> Stay informed about: Chipper may go on DL 

In article <g4avmq$bc7$1@news.interia.pl>,
Tomasz Radko <trad.DeleteThis@interia.pl> wrote:

> Sam Hutcheson pisze:
> >
> > Tomasz Radko wrote:
> >
> >>> Certainly getting hit in the face will harsh you batting eye, but I'm
> >>> all about the high-risk, high-reward prediction. Anyone can predict
> >>> that Frenchfry will struggle with plate discipline but put up enough
> >>> shiny placeholder stats to get looked past. Only a few brave souls
> >>> will throw out a "Mike Hampton will out pitch Pedro Martinez in 2008."
> >> Hampton hasn't thrown even one bad pitch, has he? Of course he hasn't
> >> thrown any good pitches, but nobody's perfect.
> >
> > Hampton: 0 GS, 0 W, 0 L, 0 IP, 0.00 ERA
> > Pedro: 6 GS, 2 W, 2 L, 30.3 IP, 7.12 ERA
> >
> > I report. You decide.
>
> I wonder if Pedro has negative VORP. I think Mets would have been better
> of with me instead of Pedro. And I'm a cheaper option. _Much_ cheaper.
>
> pzdr
>
> TRad

what is it with the guys in this group? Thomaz sez he can pitch better
than Pedro, Ron Johnson, saying that Sam (and I) can hit better than an
average MLB pitcher.

dick
-- but I'm predicting that this afternoon, I'll play golf better than
Tiger Woods, even with the calcium deposit in my right ankle acting up.
And I'll give odds that I'll drink more beer after the match.
 >> Stay informed about: Chipper may go on DL 

In article
<78a2da7c-bba5-4a60-9bda-3030c457ee79 DeleteThis @c65g2000hsa.googlegroups.com>,
Sam Hutcheson <samh DeleteThis @bellsouth.net> wrote:

> On Jul 1, 3:08 am, Tomasz Radko <t... DeleteThis @interia.pl> wrote:
> > Sam Hutcheson pisze:
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > > Dale Hicks wrote:
> >
> > >>> Certainly getting hit in the face will harsh you batting eye, but I'm
> > >>> all about the high-risk, high-reward prediction.  Anyone can predict
> > >>> that Frenchfry will struggle with plate discipline but put up enough
> > >>> shiny placeholder stats to get looked past.  Only a few brave souls
> > >>> will throw out a "Mike Hampton will out pitch Pedro Martinez in 2008."
> > >> Or even:
> >
> > >>     giles is a better player than mark derosa.  in 3 years, mark
> > >>     derosa will be a RH version of keith lockhart.  in 3 years marcus
> > >>     giles will be challenging for the all-star game.
> >
> > >> You didn't mention anything about Giles playing himself out of
> > >> baseball or DeRosa becoming a solid major league player a year later,
> > >> though.
> >
> > > I did not factor in the Giles post-steroid era decline, no.  I did not
> > > do that at all.
> >
> > Because we all know that steroids don't improve performance.
>
> I certainly don't. I also have no idea whether or not Giles used PEDs
> or not. All I know is that he fell off the face of the earth almost
> instantaneously and I was not expecting that. I don't think anyone
> else was either.
>

I wonder what history would have been like if Giles and Pryor never had
that collision?

dick
 >> Stay informed about: Chipper may go on DL 

Sam Hutcheson pisze:
> Dale Hicks wrote:
>
>>> Certainly getting hit in the face will harsh you batting eye, but I'm
>>> all about the high-risk, high-reward prediction. Anyone can predict
>>> that Frenchfry will struggle with plate discipline but put up enough
>>> shiny placeholder stats to get looked past. Only a few brave souls
>>> will throw out a "Mike Hampton will out pitch Pedro Martinez in 2008."
>> Or even:
>>
>> giles is a better player than mark derosa. in 3 years, mark
>> derosa will be a RH version of keith lockhart. in 3 years marcus
>> giles will be challenging for the all-star game.
>>
>> You didn't mention anything about Giles playing himself out of
>> baseball or DeRosa becoming a solid major league player a year later,
>> though.
>
> I did not factor in the Giles post-steroid era decline, no. I did not
> do that at all.

Because we all know that steroids don't improve performance.

pzdr

TRad
 >> Stay informed about: Chipper may go on DL 

"Sam Hutcheson" <samh DeleteThis @bellsouth.net> wrote
>> I wonder what history would have been like if Giles and Pryor never had
>> that collision?
>
> A good question, though I think the collarbone thing with Andruw is
> more likley the culprit if one of the injuries is the culprit at all.
> Giles' power disappeared after that, if I recall correctly.
>
> I'm not sure how Richard Pryor enters into it.

The Andruw collision was May 15, 2004, about 11 months after the Prior
collision. The Prior collision did not hurt Marcus at all in terms of his
swing - they collided just before the AS break in 2003, and Marcus had an
833 OPS in the first half, and a nd a 1027 OPS (including 605 SLG) in the
second half.

In 2004 Giles wasn't quite as torrid to start the year, but was hitting a
very nice 339/381/475 before the Prior collision. After that he came back to
hit 299/377/429. The drop in BA accounts for almost the entire drop in SLG.

In 2005 Marcus was still a strong hitter, with a 291/365/461 line on the
year. His power dropped off a bit in August of that year, but in September
he hit 7 HR, slugging .505 while batting only .233.

So I don't think those injuries had any real effect. He didn't really drop
off until 2006 (which was, FWIW, when the Braves tried shifting him to
leadoff). FWIW, starting the year after his big 2003, his K rate jumped
about 25%. Not sure if either of these things signal a change in approach,
but who knows.

Colin

Colin
 >> Stay informed about: Chipper may go on DL 

James Sidbury pisze:
> In article <g4avmq$bc7$1@news.interia.pl>,
> Tomasz Radko <trad RemoveThis @interia.pl> wrote:
>
>> Sam Hutcheson pisze:
>>> Tomasz Radko wrote:
>>>
>>>>> Certainly getting hit in the face will harsh you batting eye, but I'm
>>>>> all about the high-risk, high-reward prediction. Anyone can predict
>>>>> that Frenchfry will struggle with plate discipline but put up enough
>>>>> shiny placeholder stats to get looked past. Only a few brave souls
>>>>> will throw out a "Mike Hampton will out pitch Pedro Martinez in 2008."
>>>> Hampton hasn't thrown even one bad pitch, has he? Of course he hasn't
>>>> thrown any good pitches, but nobody's perfect.
>>> Hampton: 0 GS, 0 W, 0 L, 0 IP, 0.00 ERA
>>> Pedro: 6 GS, 2 W, 2 L, 30.3 IP, 7.12 ERA
>>>
>>> I report. You decide.
>> I wonder if Pedro has negative VORP. I think Mets would have been better
>> of with me instead of Pedro. And I'm a cheaper option. _Much_ cheaper.
>>
>> pzdr
>>
>> TRad
>
> what is it with the guys in this group? Thomaz sez he can pitch better
> than Pedro,

Dick, I couldn't pitch to save my life. Mets wouldn't let me throw even
one pitch. And they would have been better off with me sitting on the
couch than with Martinez on the field.

pzdr

TRad
 >> Stay informed about: Chipper may go on DL 

On Tue, 1 Jul 2008 07:46:07 -0700 (PDT), Sam Hutcheson
<samh.TakeThisOut@bellsouth.net> gave us:
>James Sidbury wrote:

>> > > Because we all know that steroids don't improve performance.

>> > I certainly don't. I also have no idea whether or not Giles used PEDs
>> > or not. All I know is that he fell off the face of the earth almost
>> > instantaneously and I was not expecting that. I don't think anyone
>> > else was either.

>> I wonder what history would have been like if Giles and Pryor never had
>> that collision?

>A good question, though I think the collarbone thing with Andruw is
>more likley the culprit if one of the injuries is the culprit at all.
>Giles' power disappeared after that, if I recall correctly.

>I'm not sure how Richard Pryor enters into it.

He set the whole lot of them on fire.

--
Lance

"Anna Nicole Smith is a hillbilly butterhog."
- Rudy Canoza


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 >> Stay informed about: Chipper may go on DL 

On Jul 1, 11:37 am, "Colin William" <colintwill....TakeThisOut@hotmail.com> wrote:
> Not sure if either of these things signal a change in approach,
> but who knows.

Here's how things break down on balls in play.

2003-2005 2006
% BA SLG % BA SLG
GB left 24.0% .216 .246 23.6% .200 .229
GB Mid 10.6% .331 .338 14.6% .277 .277
GB right 6.9% .172 .184 3.8% .059 .059
LD left 6.1% .766 1.143 7.4% .758 .909
LD Mid 6.9% .816 .977 9.0% .675 .900
LD right 8.1% .843 1.108 5.6% .680 .680
FB left 5.9% .365 1.243 5.4% .417 1.167
FB Mid 12.3% .247 .630 12.6% .268 .714
FB right 19.1% .217 .463 18.0% .088 .200

GB 41.5% .238 .259 42.0% .214 .230
LD 21.2% .812 1.075 22.0% .704 .847
FB 37.3% .250 .641 36.0% .200 .525

Left 36.0% .334 .562 36.4% .346 .506
Mid 29.8% .409 .607 36.2% .373 .584
Right 34.2% .357 .559 27.4% .205 .279

In other word, getting the ball in the air with broadly similar
frequency. Pulling the ball a lot more -- with broadly similar
results when he succeeded in pulling the ball.

Just got killed when he didn't succeed in pulling the ball.

Results are weirdly bad in fact. Jason Tyner bad. (Tyner's
slugged .155 on flyballs to left and .123 on flyballs to
center since entering the majors.)

The dropoff on line drives is almost certainly bad luck.
And if loss of upper body strength affected his results
on flyballs, it's mighty selective, only manifesting itself
on balls that he didn't hit well.
 >> Stay informed about: Chipper may go on DL 

On Jul 1, 8:12 am, Sam Hutcheson <s....DeleteThis@bellsouth.net> wrote:
> On Jul 1, 3:08 am, Tomasz Radko <t....DeleteThis@interia.pl> wrote:

>
> > Because we all know that steroids don't improve performance.
>
> I certainly don't. I also have no idea whether or not Giles used PEDs
> or not. All I know is that he fell off the face of the earth almost
> instantaneously and I was not expecting that. I don't think anyone
> else was either.

There are several things worth noting with regard to players
coming off steroids.

First of all, if coming off steroids causes a decline
similar to Giles 2005-2006, then it's dead easy to detect
who stopped using. And the number is small.

Second, we have a fair number of data on players
who've failed tests. As a group they declined by
nine points of EQA after coming back from any
discipline.

What interesting is that the drop comes almost
exclusively in OBP. Their isolated power (SLG-BA)
actually went up 4 points while their OBP dropped
14 points (10 points of BA)

Pitchers actually pitched trivially better after
coming back from a PED related suspension. In
every aspect. K rate was up, walk rate was
down and so was home runs allowed. (Though we're
talking margins that are in the noise)
 >> Stay informed about: Chipper may go on DL