Chipper may go on DL

Sam Hutcheson wrote:
> New prediction: Chipper will hit .400 but will be -50 ABs from
> qualifying.

I don't see him batting .400 either way. I don't see him returning in
prime form, and he was already going in the wrong direction.
 >> Stay informed about: Chipper may go on DL 

Tarkus wrote:
> Sam Hutcheson wrote:
> > New prediction: Chipper will hit .400 but will be -50 ABs from
> > qualifying.
>
> I don't see him batting .400 either way. I don't see him returning in
> prime form, and he was already going in the wrong direction.

Certainly getting hit in the face will harsh you batting eye, but I'm
all about the high-risk, high-reward prediction. Anyone can predict
that Frenchfry will struggle with plate discipline but put up enough
shiny placeholder stats to get looked past. Only a few brave souls
will throw out a "Mike Hampton will out pitch Pedro Martinez in 2008."

s/
 >> Stay informed about: Chipper may go on DL 

Tomasz Radko wrote:

> > Certainly getting hit in the face will harsh you batting eye, but I'm
> > all about the high-risk, high-reward prediction. Anyone can predict
> > that Frenchfry will struggle with plate discipline but put up enough
> > shiny placeholder stats to get looked past. Only a few brave souls
> > will throw out a "Mike Hampton will out pitch Pedro Martinez in 2008."
>
> Hampton hasn't thrown even one bad pitch, has he? Of course he hasn't
> thrown any good pitches, but nobody's perfect.

Hampton: 0 GS, 0 W, 0 L, 0 IP, 0.00 ERA
Pedro: 6 GS, 2 W, 2 L, 30.3 IP, 7.12 ERA

I report. You decide.

s/
 >> Stay informed about: Chipper may go on DL 

Sam Hutcheson wrote:
> Saddest part is that Tex is beginning to do his slow-start, crush-the-
> ball-to-the-finish thing. Would really like to see those two at top
> form in in the same lineups.

This was a team that came into the season as a high-risk/high-reward
lineup. But man, I wouldn't have thought that every damned injury risk
would go south. They just can't catch a break.

> On another note, Jair Jurrjens scares certain Mets fans, now and into
> the future. This is not something any young pitcher for the Braves
> has done in a while. Jo-Jo is building a reputation around the
> circles too.

If nothing else, this year might be a good dood development year for
figuring out around whom we can build moving forward.

Colin
 >> Stay informed about: Chipper may go on DL 

On Jun 30, 11:59 am, Tomasz Radko <t....DeleteThis@interia.pl> wrote:
> Sam Hutcheson pisze:
>
>
>
> > Tomasz Radko wrote:
>
> >>> Certainly getting hit in the face will harsh you batting eye, but I'm
> >>> all about the high-risk, high-reward prediction.  Anyone can predict
> >>> that Frenchfry will struggle with plate discipline but put up enough
> >>> shiny placeholder stats to get looked past.  Only a few brave souls
> >>> will throw out a "Mike Hampton will out pitch Pedro Martinez in 2008."
> >> Hampton hasn't thrown even one bad pitch, has he? Of course he hasn't
> >> thrown any good pitches, but nobody's perfect.
>
> > Hampton:  0 GS, 0 W, 0 L, 0 IP, 0.00 ERA
> > Pedro: 6 GS, 2 W, 2 L, 30.3 IP, 7.12 ERA
>
> > I report.  You decide.
>
> I wonder if Pedro has negative VORP. I think Mets would have been better
> of with me instead of Pedro. And I'm a cheaper option. _Much_ cheaper.

Currently sitting at -6.2 VORP according to BPro. For comparison,
Jorge Campillo is sporting a 19.3 (third for Braves starters behind
Hudson and Jurrjens.) Chuck James is the worst Braves starter for
2008, clocking in at a smooth -6.0. So that's your baseline.

Pedro Martinez: Slightly worse than Chuck James this year.

s/
 >> Stay informed about: Chipper may go on DL 

On Jun 30, 1:59 pm, Tomasz Radko <t... RemoveThis @interia.pl> wrote:
> Sam Hutcheson pisze:
>
>
>
>
>
> > On Jun 30, 11:59 am, Tomasz Radko <t... RemoveThis @interia.pl> wrote:
> >> Sam Hutcheson pisze:
>
> >>> Tomasz Radko wrote:
> >>>>> Certainly getting hit in the face will harsh you batting eye, but I'm
> >>>>> all about the high-risk, high-reward prediction.  Anyone can predict
> >>>>> that Frenchfry will struggle with plate discipline but put up enough
> >>>>> shiny placeholder stats to get looked past.  Only a few brave souls
> >>>>> will throw out a "Mike Hampton will out pitch Pedro Martinez in 2008.."
> >>>> Hampton hasn't thrown even one bad pitch, has he? Of course he hasn't
> >>>> thrown any good pitches, but nobody's perfect.
> >>> Hampton:  0 GS, 0 W, 0 L, 0 IP, 0.00 ERA
> >>> Pedro: 6 GS, 2 W, 2 L, 30.3 IP, 7.12 ERA
> >>> I report.  You decide.
> >> I wonder if Pedro has negative VORP. I think Mets would have been better
> >> of with me instead of Pedro. And I'm a cheaper option. _Much_ cheaper.
>
> > Currently sitting at -6.2 VORP according to BPro.  For comparison,
> > Jorge Campillo is sporting a 19.3 (third for Braves starters behind
> > Hudson and Jurrjens.)
>
> Campillo is amazing. Where was he hiding himself in the past? I know he
> will regress to the mean eventually, but for now he's great.
>
> Another interesting thing: before the everybody knew that Braves have
> three good starters. According to vox populi Smoltz, Hudson and Glavine.
> I thought about James instead of Glavine. And yes, Braves do have a
> three good starters. Only different three.

I'm not sure anyone predicted Glavine being "good." Smoltz was
obviously on the list but most people had the good sense to say "as
long as he's healthy."

> >  Chuck James is the worst Braves starter for
> > 2008, clocking in at a smooth -6.0.  So that's your baseline.
>
> > Pedro Martinez:  Slightly worse than Chuck James this year.
>
> Martinez had one good start - on June 15th against Texas
> W, 6IP, 6H, 1ER, 1BB, 4SO
>
> So I'd rather have Martinez than James. OTOH James salary is "slighlty"
> lower than Martinez. So from Braves POV James is better.

Martinez is old, expensive and coming off of major surgery. James is
young, has some talent that could be put back together and plays for
the league minimum. I wouldn't exchange them one for one at this
point.

s/
 >> Stay informed about: Chipper may go on DL 

On Jun 30, 3:33 pm, Tomasz Radko <t....DeleteThis@interia.pl> wrote:

> Me neither but so far in the season Martinez has given more to Mets than
> James to Braves. As for long term - James has much more value of course.

I'm not sure you can say that. Martinez' game log:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/gl.cgi?n1=martipe02&t=p&year=2008

James:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/gl.cgi?n1=jamesch03&t=p&year=2008

I don't see a lot more value-add from Pedro over Chucky this year.
One more start, but not dragged down by a Colorado debacle. An extra
inning per start, but most likely because his name and his manager
combined for a slower hook than Cox had with James. The results are
essentially identical with James being slightly better so far. Yeah,
Pedro could get better from here on out, but it's a risk.

s/
 >> Stay informed about: Chipper may go on DL 

Sam Hutcheson pisze:
>
> Tarkus wrote:
>> Sam Hutcheson wrote:
>>> New prediction: Chipper will hit .400 but will be -50 ABs from
>>> qualifying.
>> I don't see him batting .400 either way. I don't see him returning in
>> prime form, and he was already going in the wrong direction.
>
> Certainly getting hit in the face will harsh you batting eye, but I'm
> all about the high-risk, high-reward prediction. Anyone can predict
> that Frenchfry will struggle with plate discipline but put up enough
> shiny placeholder stats to get looked past. Only a few brave souls
> will throw out a "Mike Hampton will out pitch Pedro Martinez in 2008."

Hampton hasn't thrown even one bad pitch, has he? Of course he hasn't
thrown any good pitches, but nobody's perfect.

pzdr

TRad
 >> Stay informed about: Chipper may go on DL 

Sam Hutcheson pisze:
>
> Tomasz Radko wrote:
>
>>> Certainly getting hit in the face will harsh you batting eye, but I'm
>>> all about the high-risk, high-reward prediction. Anyone can predict
>>> that Frenchfry will struggle with plate discipline but put up enough
>>> shiny placeholder stats to get looked past. Only a few brave souls
>>> will throw out a "Mike Hampton will out pitch Pedro Martinez in 2008."
>> Hampton hasn't thrown even one bad pitch, has he? Of course he hasn't
>> thrown any good pitches, but nobody's perfect.
>
> Hampton: 0 GS, 0 W, 0 L, 0 IP, 0.00 ERA
> Pedro: 6 GS, 2 W, 2 L, 30.3 IP, 7.12 ERA
>
> I report. You decide.

I wonder if Pedro has negative VORP. I think Mets would have been better
of with me instead of Pedro. And I'm a cheaper option. _Much_ cheaper.

pzdr

TRad
 >> Stay informed about: Chipper may go on DL 

Dale Hicks wrote:

> > Certainly getting hit in the face will harsh you batting eye, but I'm
> > all about the high-risk, high-reward prediction. Anyone can predict
> > that Frenchfry will struggle with plate discipline but put up enough
> > shiny placeholder stats to get looked past. Only a few brave souls
> > will throw out a "Mike Hampton will out pitch Pedro Martinez in 2008."
>
> Or even:
>
> giles is a better player than mark derosa. in 3 years, mark
> derosa will be a RH version of keith lockhart. in 3 years marcus
> giles will be challenging for the all-star game.
>
> You didn't mention anything about Giles playing himself out of
> baseball or DeRosa becoming a solid major league player a year later,
> though.

I did not factor in the Giles post-steroid era decline, no. I did not
do that at all. As for DeRosa, I'd argue that "a RH version of Keith
Lockhart" is not an un-apt description of him to this day.

s/
 >> Stay informed about: Chipper may go on DL 

In article <7af574d2-68a6-4761-a8db-79e50c946a07
@s50g2000hsb.googlegroups.com>, samh.DeleteThis@bellsouth.net says...
>
>
> Tarkus wrote:
> > Sam Hutcheson wrote:
> > > New prediction: Chipper will hit .400 but will be -50 ABs from
> > > qualifying.
> >
> > I don't see him batting .400 either way. I don't see him returning in
> > prime form, and he was already going in the wrong direction.
>
> Certainly getting hit in the face will harsh you batting eye, but I'm
> all about the high-risk, high-reward prediction. Anyone can predict
> that Frenchfry will struggle with plate discipline but put up enough
> shiny placeholder stats to get looked past. Only a few brave souls
> will throw out a "Mike Hampton will out pitch Pedro Martinez in 2008."

Or even:

giles is a better player than mark derosa. in 3 years, mark
derosa will be a RH version of keith lockhart. in 3 years marcus
giles will be challenging for the all-star game.

You didn't mention anything about Giles playing himself out of
baseball or DeRosa becoming a solid major league player a year later,
though.

--
Cranial Crusader dgh 1138 at bell south point net
 >> Stay informed about: Chipper may go on DL 

Dale Hicks wrote:

> > I did not factor in the Giles post-steroid era decline, no. I did not
> > do that at all. As for DeRosa, I'd argue that "a RH version of Keith
> > Lockhart" is not an un-apt description of him to this day.
>
> But it is extremely unapt. Check the stats. DeRo has put together
> seasons of league-average OPS+ for several years, while playing at 2B
> (yet offering the ability to move around more). Every season
> Lockhart managed 100 games (and he never got much more than that), he
> was well below average in hitting.

Are you adjusting for age?

> Face it, DeRo had more game than you thought.

DeRo has a big contract with the Cubs.

s/
 >> Stay informed about: Chipper may go on DL 

Sam Hutcheson pisze:
> On Jun 30, 11:59 am, Tomasz Radko <t....TakeThisOut@interia.pl> wrote:
>> Sam Hutcheson pisze:
>>
>>
>>
>>> Tomasz Radko wrote:
>>>>> Certainly getting hit in the face will harsh you batting eye, but I'm
>>>>> all about the high-risk, high-reward prediction. Anyone can predict
>>>>> that Frenchfry will struggle with plate discipline but put up enough
>>>>> shiny placeholder stats to get looked past. Only a few brave souls
>>>>> will throw out a "Mike Hampton will out pitch Pedro Martinez in 2008."
>>>> Hampton hasn't thrown even one bad pitch, has he? Of course he hasn't
>>>> thrown any good pitches, but nobody's perfect.
>>> Hampton: 0 GS, 0 W, 0 L, 0 IP, 0.00 ERA
>>> Pedro: 6 GS, 2 W, 2 L, 30.3 IP, 7.12 ERA
>>> I report. You decide.
>> I wonder if Pedro has negative VORP. I think Mets would have been better
>> of with me instead of Pedro. And I'm a cheaper option. _Much_ cheaper.
>
> Currently sitting at -6.2 VORP according to BPro. For comparison,
> Jorge Campillo is sporting a 19.3 (third for Braves starters behind
> Hudson and Jurrjens.)

Campillo is amazing. Where was he hiding himself in the past? I know he
will regress to the mean eventually, but for now he's great.

Another interesting thing: before the everybody knew that Braves have
three good starters. According to vox populi Smoltz, Hudson and Glavine.
I thought about James instead of Glavine. And yes, Braves do have a
three good starters. Only different three.

> Chuck James is the worst Braves starter for
> 2008, clocking in at a smooth -6.0. So that's your baseline.
>
> Pedro Martinez: Slightly worse than Chuck James this year.

Martinez had one good start - on June 15th against Texas
W, 6IP, 6H, 1ER, 1BB, 4SO

So I'd rather have Martinez than James. OTOH James salary is "slighlty"
lower than Martinez. So from Braves POV James is better.

pzdr

TRad
 >> Stay informed about: Chipper may go on DL