On May 14, 1:24 am, "Mr. K" <mkerst... DeleteThis @comcast.net> wrote:
> "RJA" <r... DeleteThis @nospam.cinci.rr.com> wrote in message
>
> news:4824e280$0$3370$4c368faf@roadrunner.com...
>
> > We haven't covered this yet. On Wednesday, with a 9-run lead, Dusty let
> > Volquez come out in the 7th having thrown 94 pitches. He finished the 7th
> > having thrown 118. Is that wrong?
>
> LOL. Pitch counts are the most overblown stat in the world.
>
> Seriously. As if throwing 118 pitches is really any worse than throwing
> 100.
>
> I wonder how many pitches Nolan Ryan averaged in the 70s???
I'd estimate just over 140 in 1977 and just under 140
in 1974. (The pitch count estimator I use has a standard
error of something like two)
Establishing what Ryan could do in his prime as the standard makes
roughly
as much sense to me as demanding that all players steal bases like
Vince
Coleman in his prime. Unique gifts.
Besides, Ryan was put on a pitch count when he went to the Astros.
(Doubt
this? Take a look at the drop in his complete games) One of the first
pitchers
I was aware of to have one. (The Dodgers *tracked* pitch counts, but
didn't impose any limitations on their pitchers)
Bob Feller peaked at around 135. Gibson at about 120. (And it's worth
noting that Gibson never pitched in a pure 4 man rotation and seems
to have been given an extra day off from time to time after some
really heavy use)
The highest pitch count that we can document is a 15 inning complete
game loss by Al Jackson. 215 pitches. And we know of a Joe Hatten
start that went 211 pitches. Koufax topped out at 205. (Actually
that's
not true. We have pitch counts from a game before called strikes.
Jim Creighton -- the game's biggest star -- threw 331 pitches through
5 complete innings (96 in the second inning alone). Creighton was dead
at 22, so that shows you just how dangerous this kind of pitch count
is)
These are the highest we can document, but there have to be games
with more. Earl Weaver saw Steve Dalkowski pitch a 14 inning complete
game and estimated that Dalkowski threw 280 pitches (and was throwing
as hard at the end of the game as the start), and what we know of
Dalkowski's control (and he had good command that day -- only 17
walks),
well 20 pitches an inning isn't a high estimate.
Nolan Ryan had to have been close to 250 pitches on June 14, 1974.
Ran out of gas after 13 innings. 8 hits, 10 walks and 19 Ks. 58
batters
faced.)
Mind you, the opposing starter (Luis Tiant) took a complete game loss,
but probably threw "only" about 200 pitches. (Faced two fewer batters
despite going an inning and 1/3 longer and only had 5 K and 4 BB.
There's a great Bill James quote on establishing a pitcher's workload.
"Higuera, I suspect, is one of the half-dozen pitchers in our
generation who can work eight or ten innings a start without being
destroyed by it. The way that managers have tested the limits of
starting pitchers for the last century is quite a bit like the way
they used to test for witches, by pond dunking. You ever read about
that? If a woman (or a person, usually a woman) was suspected of
being a witch, they'd tie her to a pole and dunk her in the pond. If
she survived for several minutes underwater, then she was a witch and
should be stoned or burned at the stake or whatever. If she drowned,
then you knew she was innocent. Of course, the woman was dead, but at
least you knew where you stood with her.
That's how managers used to test starting pitchers, and to some
extent still do -- just throw them out there and let them pitch. In
each generation there are a handful of pitchers who can start
thirty-five or forty times a year and pitch seven innings a start -- a
handful, but no more than a handful. If you try that and it ruins the
pitcher's arm, then you know he's not one of those pitchers. Managers
establish as a normal workload the workload that Jack Morris and Teddy
Higuera are capable of handling, but which destroys most pitchers in a
year or two. They're a little better about it now, but there are
still an awful lot of young pitchers whose arms are ruined by managers
who are under pressure to win now, and who don't see any point in
making sure that the pitcher isn't overloaded."
Ironically, he wrote it in 1988 -- the last year Higuera made 30
starts or pitched 180 innings. Apparently even he wasn't one of the
handful...
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